House Price Crash Discussion Thread

beingjdc

Chris2685 wrote: »

Does anyone think that house prices will be lower in 2015 than they are now?

I think they'll be about the same, in nominal terms. I think they'll still be lower than they were last Summer, across most of the country, and higher than the trough, which is likely to be in the second half of 2010.

Chris2685

So you don't think the 2012 Olympics will skew the prices somewhat?

beingjdc

What? No. Why? They'll go up a bit in the year beforehand within commuting distance as people get the hope value of renting them out for a month to tourists, and taking in labouring lodgers who are trying to get the building work finished to the deadline, then back down afterwards.

They'll go up (relative to where they would otherwise be) in the area that's got a huge sports complex instead of a toxic landfill or whatever, and down (relative to where they would otherwise be) in the formerly posher area a mile away that people used to flee to if they could afford it.

Blimey, it's just the Olympics. It'll no more have a serious effect on our house prices than winning Eurovision three times in a row was the cause of the Irish bubble.

ManAtHome

Blimey yes, there will be an entire "olympic village" to flog Q3 2012...

Chris2685

Thats what I was wondering... if there would be an aritificial rise before the olympics, and then a sudden drop afterwards.

RichOneday_2

A snippet from today's Sunday Times:
Seema Shah, of Capital Economics, said: “The slump in mortgage approvals is consistent with further sharp falls in house prices in the months ahead.”
The steep decline in prices has already pushed thousands of homeowners into negative equity, and further falls could leave more than a million people owing more on their property than it is worth. Vince Cable, of the Liberal Democrats, said: “House prices are no longer simply falling, they are crashing. All the signs are that we are at the beginning, and not the end, of a very painful process.”
Some analysts forecast that prices could fall by as much as 35 per cent from their peak last year and may not start to rise again until 2010.
The grim conditions in the housing market are taking a heavy toll on estate agents. Fears are growing that as many as 10,000 estate agents could lose their jobs by the end of the year.
The bleak prediction, after an estimated 4,000 redundancies in the industry so far this year, would mean that about 15 per cent of the industry's workforce will have been handed their cards since the end of the house price boom.



A short term blip with a turnaround just around the corner? I don't think so.

wymondham

RichOneday wrote: »

A snippet from today's Sunday Times:
Seema Shah, of Capital Economics, said: “The slump in mortgage approvals is consistent with further sharp falls in house prices in the months ahead.”
The steep decline in prices has already pushed thousands of homeowners into negative equity, and further falls could leave more than a million people owing more on their property than it is worth. Vince Cable, of the Liberal Democrats, said: “House prices are no longer simply falling, they are crashing. All the signs are that we are at the beginning, and not the end, of a very painful process.”
Some analysts forecast that prices could fall by as much as 35 per cent from their peak last year and may not start to rise again until 2010.
The grim conditions in the housing market are taking a heavy toll on estate agents. Fears are growing that as many as 10,000 estate agents could lose their jobs by the end of the year.
The bleak prediction, after an estimated 4,000 redundancies in the industry so far this year, would mean that about 15 per cent of the industry's workforce will have been handed their cards since the end of the house price boom.



A short term blip with a turnaround just around the corner? I don't think so.

Of all the politicians, Vince Cable is the only one I have any respect for, and this re-affirms it.

RichOneday_2

I have to agree with that, Vince Cable seems to talk a lot of sense on a number of subjects.

Lotus-eater

RichOneday wrote: »

I have to agree with that, Vince Cable seems to talk a lot of sense on a number of subjects.

Also agreed, I heard him on the news the other day, I wasn't watching the tv, just listening. I thought, thats not a politician with the open/frank/sensible/down to earth way he is talking, must be a banker........ then I saw it was VC!

harryhound

Taken from the Vince Cable web site:
Professional experience

• Chief Economist of Shell International
• Head of Economics, Royal Institute of International Affairs
• Special adviser to Commonwealth secretary-general Sonny Ramphal
• United Nations Association London and South East Region President
• Deputy Director Overseas Development Institute
• Diplomatic Service
• Lecturer in Economics, University of Glasgow
• Treasury Official, Government of Kenya
• Freelance work for World Bank and UN.
• Worked extensively in India and Latin America
• Regular broadcaster and columnist:
• The Independent (on economic and political issues)
• The Economist

Academic

• Cambridge University (Natural Science and Economics)
• President of Cambridge Union
• Ph.D. University of Glasgow
• Currently visiting fellow, Nuffield College, Oxford.
• Former Special professor at the University of Nottingham