House Price Crash Discussion Thread

m00m00

rippedoff3 wrote: »

Its it possible to find how much prices are dropping per area?

We live in a very desirbale area and so i hope that it won't affect as as much?

We think our property is around £425000

we bought in 2001 for £207000

I am now pondering STR partly due to the hassle of the chain but we want to go down in mortgage so we will be at a loss.

if you use firefox, then browsing rightmove with property bee will be a great help in showing what's actually happening in an area in 'real time'

http://www.property-bee.com/

TT1_3

Why are people so 'sure' on this site that house prices will crash?

The way i see it is there's a slow down but thats it, there will be no increases for a while but no huge crash as the doom mongers are predicting.

1) You can still easily get a mortgage if you have 5% deposit, no high lenders fee if you have 10% deposit. However, most people don't have this saved.
2) Theres not many 1st time buyers around at the minute so demand is low, only people that *HAVE* to sell are selling at a lower price, which is why prices are 'falling'.
3) People that don't have to sell at a lower price aren't selling and sitting tight.

When these first time buyers eventually come to market with a 5% deposit there will be less supply as people will be waiting for the 'falling market' to pick back up before they sell.

Lotus-eater

TT1 wrote: »

Why are people so 'sure' on this site that house prices will crash?

I suppose the whole housing market boom/bust cycle could be broken or changed forever, it has been that way for quite a while, but I doubt it.

You sound a bit like my Mum, "it won't happen, it won't happen, it won't happen..", "what if it does?", "it won't happen, it won't happen, it won't happen..", "but wha? etc
Like alot of people I meet in real life, I am still mocked if I ever say prices will crash, I don't go around saying it alot............. but things are starting to change, they now think there will be a small correction of a few percent......... and then prices will start rising again.............. can't wait.

TT1_3

Lotus-eater wrote: »

I suppose the whole housing market boom/bust cycle could be broken or changed forever, it has been that way for quite a while, but I doubt it.

You sound a bit like my Mum, "it won't happen, it won't happen, it won't happen..", "what if it does?", "it won't happen, it won't happen, it won't happen..", "but wha? etc
Like alot of people I meet in real life, I am still mocked if I ever say prices will crash, I don't go around saying it alot............. but things are starting to change, they now think there will be a small correction of a few percent......... and then prices will start rising again.............. can't wait.

LOL, your mum sound's just like me!

I can't remember who's prediction it was, i think it was RICS, they said 2008 would see 8% drop first half, then a rise in the 2nd half finishing 2% down for 2008.

I'm a 1st time buyer and most people have said during viewings that they're willing to talk about the price, adding with a big BUT - 'i know what my house is worth', 'i won't sell for peanuts', 'i'm not giving it away' etc etc

Thats the thing after the boom, people aren't willing to sell at a 'loss' - even if that 'loss' means they make a massive amount on what they paid for it - Joe Bloggs sold his for x, so can i mentality.

Supply and demand will avoid a huge crash, its not like you can just go and buy a house off a shelf in a shop, people have to want to sell.

dopester

TT1 wrote: »

Supply and demand will avoid a huge crash, its not like you can just go and buy a house off a shelf in a shop, people have to want to sell.

Or be forced to due to losing their jobs / needing to move for new jobs / non-payment of mortgage / MEW'ed out the equity for spending or to help their own kids on to ladder. People have been treating their house equity like a cash-machine.

It's turned and I'm convinced the number of people in trouble will drag down on asking prices of all types of property in all areas of England. You might not have to sell, but if a few of your neighbours do, and more in the general area, then it's not going to keep the valuation of other houses on the street where it is now.

John_Pierpoint

rippedoff3 wrote: »

Its it possible to find how much prices are dropping per area?

We live in a very desirbale area and so i hope that it won't affect as as much?

We think our property is around £425000

we bought in 2001 for £207000

I am now pondering STR partly due to the hassle of the chain but we want to go down in mortgage so we will be at a loss.

I've started noticing the "I'm relatively safe in my posh area" postings, re-appearing in this thread.

For the benefit of those not sufficiently spooked to read the thread from post #1, I have brought forward this link originally posted back in January:

http://boards.fool.co.uk/Message.asp?mid=10884122&bid=51402&sort=whole

The historical prices are taken from the detailed series compiled by HSBC

John

Original post by Generali - nice one!

Mary_Hartnell

At last a bullish estate agent:
http://www.struttandparker.com/html/...ces-rocket.php

JonnyBravo

Mary_Hartnell wrote: »

At last a bullish estate agent:
http://www.struttandparker.com/html/...ces-rocket.php

Now if I can just remember where I put that spare farm I had??

TT1_3

dopester wrote: »

Or be forced to due to losing their jobs / needing to move for new jobs / non-payment of mortgage / MEW'ed out the equity for spending or to help their own kids on to ladder. People have been treating their house equity like a cash-machine.

It's turned and I'm convinced the number of people in trouble will drag down on asking prices of all types of property in all areas of England. You might not have to sell, but if a few of your neighbours do, and more in the general area, then it's not going to keep the valuation of other houses on the street where it is now.

I agree, i think prices will drop slightly and the market will slow but it won't be as big a 'crash' as some people on here are saying.
I can only talk for my area in the NW, where you can get a 4 bed detached for 225k, but the rental market is very strong here. All these guys will support our local market and i think its just a period of leveling off.
Now is the time to buy.

skap7309

TT1 wrote: »

Why are people so 'sure' on this site that house prices will crash?

The way i see it is there's a slow down but thats it, there will be no increases for a while but no huge crash as the doom mongers are predicting.

1) You can still easily get a mortgage if you have 5% deposit, no high lenders fee if you have 10% deposit. However, most people don't have this saved.
2) Theres not many 1st time buyers around at the minute so demand is low, only people that *HAVE* to sell are selling at a lower price, which is why prices are 'falling'.
3) People that don't have to sell at a lower price aren't selling and sitting tight.

When these first time buyers eventually come to market with a 5% deposit there will be less supply as people will be waiting for the 'falling market' to pick back up before they sell.

Bit misleading there -
1)I AM a FTB with around a 20% deposit, can i get even close to getting a mortage? Certainly not.
2)With no FTBs desperate for a home but cannot get close to the eye-watering prices (like me and many others on these forums) in the market then no chains can start and the housing market stops literally in its tracks.
3)I wouldnt agree with it being a slow down but a crash is a little harsh, now people are realising the market cannot be saved prices are falling faster than you imagine.