House Price Crash Discussion Thread

John_Pierpoint

The bubble came and took the village pub.
It is busy closing the local post office.
Now its turned on its hand maiden (or evil uncle if you prefer).

If Estate Agency numbers are down 20% by this year end, will it follow that house prices will be too?

In reality house prices are down a lot more than the statistics suggest. Because the VOLUME is well down, we know it is the more-difficult-to-sell houses that are failing to sell. They are being withdrawn by owners, determined not to admit their major asset has fallen in value.

Their denial does not change the truth.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1930019/Estate-agencies-shut-150-branches-a-week.html

t_i_g_e_rr

Just to add my 2p worth...

When an east midlands estate agent with 20 years experience in the same town went to value my friends house a couple of weeks ago, he gloomily said that he has never known it worse than it is now. He has full chains, except that he has no first time buyers at all. He thinks the market will move, but not at this price. He can't guess at what price (not openly anyway), but he reckoned he would know in 3 months. The cheapest house on his books is 99k (mid terrace needing a bit of work), the average wage of a first time buyer on his books is 15-20k. Nationwide want 10% deposit. So by my reckoning, if we want the market to move in this area, 10k + 3x20k = realistically not much more than 80k, not 99k (i.e. 20%). Basically, the banks have the money, so they decide what happens from here on.

I also know the major new home builders are discounting more than that right now (30%ish), and in some cases only selling 30% as many houses as normal. Just look Bovis' recent announcement. Some of the other major players have trading statements coming up in the next few weeks that may make interesting reading.

borntobefree

Hi guys,

I have been on here to say that I havn't seen much change in the market on "my street" and in "my area" in London. Indeed, someone completed for a record amount 10 days ago. However, I'm sure you'll be glad to hear;) that I think that the market has now died in "my street" and "my area". There are now hardly any for sale boards (which is not what you would expect at this time of year) and the local estate agent has closed for a refurb (not what you would expect at this time of year)....I think the market may have died in "my steet" and "my area" too.:rolleyes: But I'll keep you posted...:p

John_Pierpoint

Spot the repossession:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7391772.stm

The really interesting figure would be "mortgages in arrears".

PayDay

If this site is a true representation of the problems people are having with their finances, then there seems to be a lot of people up to their neck in it. Just been on a thread where some LLs seem shocked and panicked that a prospective tenant wanted the house painted before they moved in as it it hadn't been decorated recently. The tenant was seen by some LLs as "trouble". If LLs are struggling to find the money to do just basic maintenance then they must have real financial problems.

I did wonder how many of them were on a basic wage, or relied on their rents to keep them as they didn't have a job to finance them. I assume it must be getting harder for some as the cost of living is rising and looks like it will get worse. Voids will hit them hard

harryhound

I don't know what it is about (some) landlords, even after having been a LL's agent myself. Some tenants can be a pain in the neck with the silly little things they worry about, especially if it is Christmas eve; but most are lovely and I would find myself thinking how I could make life better for them (and the property easier to let in the future!!!). But a lot of landlords seem to have this attitude that tenants are a lower class of human. Even the Tax man expects 10% of the rent to be spent on keeping the property up to scratch - I'd better not say "improving" it, as improvements are not tax allowable.

What ever happened to "the customer is always right"?.

The only real "sin" in my book was "failing to pay the rent on time".

PayDay

From reading the forums, amazingly it seems a lot of LLs use that 10% tax relief as income! No long term plans in place to look after their assets. Lots of complaints from LLs too about the cost of the new EU energy performance regulations coming in in October, which will only cost about £250 for 10 years certificate per property.

I know a lot of LLs say they are in it for the long term, but I just don't see how that is possible for many, when their finances are so tightly balanced.

harryhound

Can you post a link to these new regulations.
So that tenants reading this can know what to expect
(and people like me can gloat about not being in the BTL game any more).

The House in Multiple Occupation regulations, requiring "family" houses to be turned into a facsimile of a hotel, with heavy self closing fire doors and wired glass peep windows etc. etc. was enough for most amateurs to see the writing on the wall.

bobdagob

guys, u can check out how much the properties on your street sold for and on what date to give you a rough estimate as to how much your property is worth at nethouseprices.com

harryhound

Yes but it is very much "rear view mirror driving" as the figures are not up to date and when they are they represent "handshake" deals done 3 or 4 months earlier.
There have been serious questions raised recently about the accuracy of these figures as developers discovered how to inflate them and buyers sought to delay or avoid Stamp Duty Land Tax ?.