House Price Crash Discussion Thread

pickledtink

pickledpink wrote: »

CarolT

In nearly all of your posts you come across as a miserable, nasty, embittered woman. Why are you so rude to everyone?

You lurk around this forum like some weird ghoul - you've NEVER owned your own home - and chances are you never will. You despise anyone who has equity in their homes, and you're jealous as hell!

You're so jealous in fact, that you wish all people will lose thousands and thousands of money off their homes - just so you can get some kind of warped satisfaction! If seeing families with children struggle, and possibly become homeless, a form of entertainment then you're sicker than you seem!

You seem to gloat at people's losses, and you must have an awful lot of issues with yourself if you only get satisfaction out of watching people lose their homes. What else d'you do for entertainment? Watch car crashes?!

I think you're a VILE person - and rude to boot! You should be reported.

Only TWO words in capitals and a mere FIVE exclamation marks!!!!
Well DONE!! At this rate you'll be writing proper English in NO time at all!

Vincenzo

OK, so I resisted replying to this originally because I saw little point in our 'conversation'. However as so many others have clearly picked up on your rude nature and the panic that seems to ensue as soon as someone disagrees with your opinion, I will....

carolt wrote: »

My point was not that you definitely made a bad investment - I have no knowledge of your local market and no 25-year crystal ball - but that you were not, as I have pointed out before, an impartial observer - your professed view - that house prices would probably remain roughly stagnant or not fall much was based not on analysis but on wishful thinking, given your position as the owner of a BTL, who stood to lose if prices fell.

One less charitable than I might even suggest that you were posting here specifically with the aim of misleading buyers and postponing the crash...but of course, I would never believe that you had such an inflated idea of your own worth...or lack of morals....;)

Firstly, thank you for your advice on my investment. I am pleased that a FTB approaching 40 who is still awaiting the right moment to jump in, approves.

You have failed to grasp why I held on to this property and why a fall in capital values does not affect my long term strategy. I am far more interested in my running yield. In particular towards retirement (many years from now). I have effectively bought an income, the fact that it is a property is neither here nor there. Now we could get into an argument over whether short term / medium term falls in capital values will affect rental values but I doubt you will find that in any of the broadsheets..

Your last comment on my intentions and my character are absolutely ridiculous and utterly rude. I have never made any derogatory comments (until now) about your character and am disappointed that you have finally succeeded in pulling me down to your level.

You, among others, but mainly you have ruined the credibility of this thread.

m00m00

can we now move away from the discussion of personalties and back to discussion of actual facts and events, with the odd opinion (and in some cases VERY odd opinions) thrown in.

HammersFan

carolt wrote: »

Don't do yourself down! Tin hat not required......

Absolutely agree with your opinions about local versus national markets, and the dangers of projecting from one month's figures.

So, how do you see it panning out- in your neck of the woods, or nationally?

I wish I knew how it would pan out - I'd be a very rich person very soon. I got severe personal abuse (called the worst 4-letter word for example) on another thread for suggesting that an FTB who could get 10% off asking price might not be getting a bad deal. To be honest that put me off posting for a bit, but I've seen loads of people hold off buying waiting for a crash and lots have regretted it. What bugs me is the blanket advice posted as 100% fact / certainty, and the way people are abused for offering a different view (even if they support it with statistics). Sorry for the rant.

There are two things that always enter my thinking about buying.

1. I so do not want to be paying rent in retirement or working hard to pay off big chunks of my mortage late into my working life. That would stink. Hence, I think buying early in life is a decent move if the deal is right.

2. Waiting for a crash relies on the market moving in one direction (down). If you own property (alright, with a mortgage before I get "the bank owns it" reply), at least you are 'protected' if prices rise. For example, if someone who didn't want to buy a house to live in themselves, or couldn't find the right property, say 6-7 years ago, just went out and got a buy-to-let, they would have protected themseleves against the price rises that have occured. And if the market crashed or went down then they could hold the BTL until the market improved because they wouldn't need to release the equity for a deposit on a house to live in (what with prices being so much lower).

I may be all wrong here - but its not served me too bad as a strategy.

setmefree2

HammersFan wrote: »

What bugs me is the blanket advice posted as 100% fact / certainty,

True. The only thing anyone knows at the moment with certainty is that we are in a period of economic uncertainty.:D

Joe65_2

Oh No. Another BoE Interest Rate cut.
Why should my savings have to endure yet another attempt to stave off the inevitable House Price correction ?

carolt

HammersFan wrote: »

I wish I knew how it would pan out - I'd be a very rich person very soon. I got severe personal abuse (called the worst 4-letter word for example) on another thread for suggesting that an FTB who could get 10% off asking price might not be getting a bad deal. To be honest that put me off posting for a bit, but I've seen loads of people hold off buying waiting for a crash and lots have regretted it. What bugs me is the blanket advice posted as 100% fact / certainty, and the way people are abused for offering a different view (even if they support it with statistics). Sorry for the rant.

There are two things that always enter my thinking about buying.

1. I so do not want to be paying rent in retirement or working hard to pay off big chunks of my mortage late into my working life. That would stink. Hence, I think buying early in life is a decent move if the deal is right.

2. Waiting for a crash relies on the market moving in one direction (down). If you own property (alright, with a mortgage before I get "the bank owns it" reply), at least you are 'protected' if prices rise. For example, if someone who didn't want to buy a house to live in themselves, or couldn't find the right property, say 6-7 years ago, just went out and got a buy-to-let, they would have protected themselves against the price rises that have occurred. And if the market crashed or went down then they could hold the BTL until the market improved because they wouldn't need to release the equity for a deposit on a house to live in (what with prices being so much lower).

I may be all wrong here - but its not served me too bad as a strategy.

Thank you for your considered response. You may be astonished to hear it, but I actually agree with you on everything you have said, bar the last 2 sentences. I think that tends to underestimate the risks of BTL versus home ownership in that having the mortgage paid is dependent on a third party, namely the tenant. If you have lengthy void periods or dodgy tenants or just rents failed to keep pace with rises in interest rates you could be paying all or some of a mortgage on top of rent (assuming that you are renting, as you need somewhere else to live in at the same time).

I'd clearly be a fool if I didn't agree that property was a great investment over the last 10 years or so.

Where we part company, I assume, is in our view of where we think the market will go from here. I (in accordance with the IMF, George Soros, the Nationwide.... I could go on, as you well know) think it will fall, in the short-medium term. I'm as mystified as the next man with regards to long term predictions.

You, on the other hand, state that you don't know how it will pan out; from the advice given, mentioned above, you appear to be more optimistic than me; correct me if I'm wrong.

I think we also share a dislike of personal abuse used as a substitution for argument.

I take great pleasure in reading thought out posts backed up by statistics, as you put it. I look forward to hearing more thoughtful posts in a similar vein to this one, on where the posters think house prices will go.

Will there be a 'crash'? (NB Note title of thread!) If not - why not? What hard evidence can you present for this? If yes, likewise.

Looking forward to the response.......

Mr._H_2

carolt wrote: »

I think we also share a dislike of personal abuse used as a substitution for argument.

Hear! Hear!

carolt wrote: »

Will there be a 'crash'?

We still haven't actually defined what we think "crash" means.

Presumably x% fall in "y" timeframe?

e.g. 10% fall in six months is a crash, but 10% fall in one year is just a "correction" rather than a crash?

Generali

Mr._H wrote: »

Hear! Hear!



We still haven't actually defined what we think "crash" means.

Presumably x% fall in "y" timeframe?

e.g. 10% fall in six months is a crash, but 10% fall in one year is just a "correction" rather than a crash?

For shares, a fall of 20% in a market is generally considered to be a bear market.

Given the illiquid and slow moving nature of the housing market, I've always felt that a 20% drop in real terms (ie inflation adjusted) over a couple of years (give or take) could be called a crash.

A crash isn't like a kilogram or a second, it doesn't have a proper definition so we can argue the point round in circles until we all end up thoroughly bored. I think it's one of those debates like the one about how many angels can dance on the head of a pin (3 is the answer if you're wondering).

Again, looking to the stock market (largely it's because it's what I know) a correction is just a nice word for 'crash', 'fell off a cliff' or 'the price has gone down the pan taking my bonus with it'. It's one of those words that lets highly paid equity analysts show how dispassionate they are about the whole thing and thus their opinion is to be trusted (and thus they should be paid even more).

Vincenzo

carolt wrote: »

You are as entitled to your view on me as I am to my view on you. I posted that because you had the audacity to declare yourself publicly to be an 'impartial' observer, and present facts impartially - something no-one who has read any of my posts could claim I pretend. I am - for the record - happy to be associated with the belief that house prices will fall in the short-medium term, probably quite substantially. I am also happy to put my money where my mouth is on this - despite having agreed funds, we decided to bow gracefully out of buying last year, and are currently sitting on our hands, as would be FTB's, waiting for prices to fall.

I felt the fact that you claimed impartiality despite being an amateur buy-to-let landlord and therefore clearly having a vested interest in talking up prices was dishonest, and I said so.

By all means post whatever opinions you wish - but claiming to be a disinterested observer does you no favours.

And joining in with some sort of personal attack on me from someone who finds the news that property prices may be falling deeply distressing and prefers (or finds it easier?) to shoot the messenger, does you no favours either.

I really wish you would stop calling me that. I am far from an 'amateur' where property is concerned. Good luck with your ill informed posts and wishful thinking.