House Price Crash Discussion Thread

carolt

Stevenic wrote: »

Yeah, I'm so waiting for the compassionate comments on here when some poor soul who's partner has been made redundant or is unable to work asks a simple question about house prices and then gets jumped on for being so stupid in actually buying a home :rolleyes:

I think the post that you were looking for was here:

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.html?p=9962967&postcount=2239

and her reply:

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.html?p=9969645&postcount=2247

That was on page 112 of this thread; not that long ago:
http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.html?t=580154&page=112

I think you'll find we were a pretty sympathetic lot, actually.

Worth reading: a salutary lesson for all of those who claim prices can never fall, or it doesn't matter if you're buying a home not an investment; sadly not true.

Stevenic

carolt wrote: »

I think the post that you were looking for was here:

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.html?p=9962967&postcount=2239

and her reply:

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.html?p=9969645&postcount=2247

That was on page 112 of this thread; not that long ago:
http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.html?t=580154&page=112

I think you'll find we were a pretty sympathetic lot, actually.

Maybe I was looking for this one:

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.html?p=10037743&postcount=5

HammersFan

http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2008/apr/08/houseprices.property1

Regional breakdown of the Halifax survey. Doesnt look like a full on crash to me (of course I am wrong, and will get some insulting remarks telling me how stupid I am simply because I am not cheerleading a crash).

Could it be that the regions that saw big growth are just levelling out with the regions that saw the most steady growth? Its just a theory. I live in East Mids where growth has been around 4-6% for the last few years and that looks like its carrying on.

The figures also show how its possible to over-claim from a headline finding - like I could say that if this continues house price growth in the East Mids would be 25% this year, so best get in there now (of course, I wouldn't conclude or advise that, but this type of over-interpretation in the reverse direction seems pretty common on here).

(Puts on tin hat to deflect dogmatic and patronising replies from people who believe they can predict the future with 100% certainty).

beingjdc

HammersFan wrote: »

Could it be that the regions that saw big growth are just levelling out with the regions that saw the most steady growth?

Seems more likely to me that the figures are all over the place regionally because plummeting volumes has shrunk the sample size.

It's impossible to believe that with more people trying to sell, and fewer able to buy, prices will go anywhere but down in the medium-term.

m00m00

strange, I live in the east midlands too, and properties have been flat and declining here (at least the ones I've been looking at) for over 2 years.

no dogmatism, just a good background in data and trend analysis.

m00m00

here's a post from elsewhere regarding the east midlands.

re. East Midlands)

Depends how far you go back.The growth of prices was truly stellar during the period 2001-2004*,whence prices doubled,making London's later run between 2004-2007 look pathetic.We hit the inflation adjusted peak in Q1 2005 and that was the time to get out.In the worst effected areas like Nottingham we are in the fourth year of gently declining prices.Hardly surprising that we are being slighty cushioned from the crash as we are already into the fourth year of a crash.(amazing that bulls can't understand a flat-liner is a crash,1989-1996 was almost entirely a flat-liner which led to inflation adjusted falls of 40%)

Laughing_Man_2

Stevenic wrote: »

Maybe I was looking for this one:

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.html?p=10037743&postcount=5

I stand by my post for both content and tone. Someone in the process of buying an overpriced newbuild has heard the bad news and wants 'advice' the first response is 'don't buy'- OP asks for more I give them this:

Heres some advice: rather than posting on a message board do some research and make up your own mind about the likely causes, depth and duration of any downturn. Then compare the actual cash sums involved in this purchase over continuing to rent for that period and make up your own damn mind.

IMO resources like MSE and HPC are all well and good for little things and certainly excellent for accessing sources, but I would NEVER allow forum posts made by complete strangers to influence major life decisions. Its exactly that kind of uncritical, mindless seeking of and conformity to consensus that got the OP in that thread, and alot of others, into trouble in the first place. Hence the term 'sheeple', I suppose.

Encouraging these people to engage in a little research and independant thought rather than offering pre-digested opinion is by far the best medicine in my view.

HammersFan

m00m00 wrote: »

strange, I live in the east midlands too, and properties have been flat and declining here (at least the ones I've been looking at) for over 2 years.

no dogmatism, just a good background in data and trend analysis.

I think the lang registry figures and Halifax and Nationwide surveys show modest growth in east mids over last 3 years. Seem to be big differences within regions - Notts seems to have taken more of a hit (with new builds) than derbys. And the Peak District has had bigger inflation than elsewhere.

I was trying to make a broader point about the figures from the latest surveys being over-interpreted to support particualr points of view.

Stevenic

Laughing_Man wrote: »

I stand by my post for both content and tone. Someone in the process of buying an overpriced newbuild has heard the bad news and wants 'advice' the first response is 'don't buy'- OP asks for more I give them this

I feel that there is no need to be rude, especially to someone new member making their first post here

HammersFan

m00m00 wrote: »

here's a post from elsewhere regarding the east midlands.

This also shows that different regions behave very differently and blanket conclusions about growth / falls are a bit misleading.

It is a bit out of kilter with my experience of the derbys market - i bought two properties in city centre derby in Q4 2004 and sold them both last year at around 130% of their q4 2004 value (I dont think I bought them that cheap or sold them that expensive either). Notts has had a bad time in the press re: crime and BTL investors in student accomodation have been wiped out with the University building so much of its own stuff.

Maybe there's a lot going on in local markets that these trends don't pick up / or even mask?