House Price Crash Discussion Thread

SquatNow

Anyone else think that this thread, and the "no more house price crash discussion" threads should be unstickied and allowed to die.

Running_Horse

SquatNow wrote: »

Anyone else think that this thread, and the "no more house price crash discussion" threads should be unstickied and allowed to die.

And that would be so you can attack every FTB who comes on here asking for help?

You're a boring one-trick-pony, and not even a squatter.

Vincenzo

SquatNow wrote: »

Anyone else think that this thread, and the "no more house price crash discussion" threads should be unstickied and allowed to die.

Well we have gone a little off topic.

Although it can be summed up rather simply....none of us know what will happen, not much has happened just yet, we all disagree and only time will tell.

I think that covers it.

Lotus-eater

Vincenzo wrote: »

Well we have gone a little off topic.

Although it can be summed up rather simply....none of us know what will happen, not much has happened just yet, we all disagree and only time will tell.

I think that covers it.

Does that now mean that some people are now going to have nightmares trying to fill their time from now on, as this thread might as well be wound up.

baby_fuzz

John_Pierpoint wrote: »

If you get "gazundered" you have the choice of pulling out, trying to pass on the loss to the seller of the house you are buying (assuming you are in a chain) or taking the hit.

No chain, & we haven't actually met the buyers, as it was all done by proxy through our estate agent. We're just trying to get through all the paperwork as fast as possible! Having said that, we think that they need to move as they are in the middle of the chain - and I'm hoping that this will deter them from jepordising the sale...

merlinthehappypig

From todays FT:

The dollar plummeted to record lows and the price of gold touched $1,000 on Thursday as retail sales figures confirmed that the US is in recession.........

Time to invest in hard hats in the UK, I think.

WTF?_2

merlinthehappypig wrote: »

From todays FT:

The dollar plummeted to record lows and the price of gold touched $1,000 on Thursday as retail sales figures confirmed that the US is in recession.........

Time to invest in hard hats in the UK, I think.

It's amazing though that there are still some posters here who resolutely think everything's going to be OK. Just how much can anyone delude themselves?

m00m00

!!!!!!? wrote: »

It's amazing though that there are still some posters here who resolutely think everything's going to be OK. Just how much can anyone delude themselves?

easily explained

kübler-ross stage 1

1. Denial: The initial stage: "It can't be happening."

exil

Retail sales figures cannot be used to decide if the US is in recession.

"a recession is a decline in a country's gross domestic product (GDP), or negative real economic growth, for two or more successive quarters of a year"

From the same wikipedia article

"
While some economists are confident about a recession[29], others are not convinced about a recession.[30] Some believe that the current slowdown may at best be a mild and brief recession.[31] There is anticipation that the economy may start recovering in the later part of 2008.[32]"

The article does include the "doomsday scenario"

"
Nouriel Roubini has outlined a harsh 12-step scenario.[34]

1. U.S. home prices will fall between 20% and 30% from their peak. NYTimes chart
2. Losses to the financial system from the subprime disaster, as high as $300 billion, are now spreading to near-prime and prime mortgages.
3. The recession will lead to a sharp increase in defaults on other forms of unsecured consumer debt.
4. Monoline insurance companies will take on their insurance of residential mortgage-backed securities, collateralized debt obligations and other asset-backed securities products, losses which are much higher than the $10 billion-to-$15 billion rescue package that regulators are trying to arrange.
5. The commercial real estate loan market will soon enter into a meltdown similar to the subprime one.
6. Some large regional or even national banks that are very exposed to mortgages, residential and commercial, may go bankrupt.
7. Banks' losses will grow as a result of hundreds of billions of dollars of leveraged loans on their balance sheets at values well below par, currently about 90 cents on the dollar.
8. Once a severe recession starts, a massive wave of corporate defaults will take place. Typically U.S. corporate default rates are about 3.8% (1971-2007); in 2006 and 2007 this figure was a rather low 0.6%. And in a typical U.S. recession such default rates surge above 10%.
9. The “shadow banking system” (as defined by Pimco, it is composed by non-bank financial institutions that borrow short and in liquid forms and lend or invest long in more illiquid assets), will soon get into serious trouble.
10. Stock markets in the U.S. and overseas will start pricing in a severe U.S. recession and a sharp global economic slowdown.
11. The credit crunch that is affecting most credit markets and credit derivative markets will lead to a drying up of liquidity in several financial markets, including otherwise very liquid derivatives markets.
12. A vicious cycle of losses, capital reduction, credit contraction, forced liquidation of assets at below fundamental prices will ensue, leading to further credit contraction."

And to put things in context here is a list of recessions
in the US

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions

And finally - "recession" and "house price crash" are not the same thing - we can easily have one without the other.

merlinthehappypig

exil wrote: »

"a recession is a decline in a country's gross domestic product (GDP), or negative real economic growth, for two or more successive quarters of a year"

From the same wikipedia article

And to put things in context here is a list of recessions
in the US

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions

I haven't quite got to the stage where I am prepared to take the word of Wikipedia over that of the FT, sorry. That may well be where Gordon Brown and Alastair Darling go for advice, mind.