House Price Crash Discussion Thread

nelly_2

beinerts wrote: »

Why is everyone using the term "crash"? The expert aren't even agreed that prices will fall over 12 months yet.

Experts?

There are no experts they are all just guessers

Same as financial people in the city they just guess too

You ask nick leeson if you dont believe me

Vincenzo

nelly wrote: »

Experts?

There are no experts they are all just guessers

Same as financial people in the city they just guess too

You ask nick leeson if you dont believe me

Some people just get paid more for their guesses than others

carolt

blue_monkey, the answer to your question is that ordinary people will do what they have been doing for the last few years:

1. staying at home longer
2. renting places that are too small for them (where I live all the big houses belong to single pensioners too old to look after them properly; the tiny houses are all rammed with young families)
3. moving further out and so v long commutes are not unusual.

These are all options.

Where we differ from where we were even a year ago is that the 4th option, that of self-cert or lie-to-buy, which were, as we all know, very common among those otherwise priced out of the market, no longer exists as lenders have tightened up lending criteria. Likewise, option 5, of getting an outrageously high income multiple or 125% mortgage, no longer exists.

Which removes a hell of a lot of potential buyers, and means prices will fall.

But until they do, it's options 1, 2 or 3 (or council tenancies, option 6, if you're lucky enough to get one) for a couple of years, until prices have fallen enough to be in line with long-term averages....

blue_monkey_2

I forgot to say earlier as someone had asked. Yes, when DD was born we was sent some stuff for shared Ownership and for a 2 bed house costing £178k we could have bought a 50% share, minimum wage to be able to get the property was £28k, plus the deposit, and the rent was an additional £200 a month. Of course, the 2 bed houses now cost 234k so heaven knows what the minimum criteria is now. We need a 3 bedroom place - yes that is need, not want, need because of my son's condition, so if we was to buy we would need to look for a 3 bedroom place. Saving money when you have children is hard also so I doubt for us it is ever going to happen while they are under 16.

Still, there is always time once the kids have grown up, once they are in school I can pick my business back up off the ground again and who knows where we will be in 5 years time. The irony in all of this being that this was the first year my business had made money, come Xmas I was starting to see a return and made £3000 (before VAT) in a month... but then my business has had to close because I do not know whether I am coming or going and where we are going to be and that £3000 now has to pay for storage of my stock indefinately and I have to start all over again. If I rent privately you cannot work from home anyway, not sure what the councils policy is on that as I have never asked, and I don't have the money to rent an office around here (last check locally was 9k pa plus VAT and minimum term 3 years!!). So, I guess I will just have to take it as it comes. Who on earth knows what is round the corner, but I, like a lot of other average low wage earners, just want to know we are secure. Times have changed, when my parents had us they were giving out council houses with vouchers on cornflake packets, now they tell me there is nothing available.

I told my husband that he could go kill one of our elderly neighbours and get banged up, I would be on benefits, he would be in prison, I could get a drug habit and we'd get the ouse of the dead person as we were then 'vunerable'. You'd think in the year 2008 that people who work might be able to afford a roof over their heads.

When I look at the bigger picture I am thankful that my mother has decided to sell now as in a years time there are going to be so many more people sitting in homeless hostels. I am just 'glad' that we beat them to it and will get in there first as the future is going to being a long wait fo some families who are up to their eyes in debt!! they might well sell their houses and have 6 months reant deposit as a deposit but once the 6 months is up and they need to look for something else they won't have the same to be able to secure somewhere. And this leaves them........... oh!

blue_monkey_2

Carolt,

We have been living at home - I am 36 and hubby 37, we are at my mothers and don't really have any other family we can go to.

Same here - but even the 2 beds are too expensive for us to rent as LA expect you to bring home 3 times the rent. We have a son who needs his own bedroom so this is why we have been allocated medical points for him. The council won't give us a 2 bedroom place because my daughter will have to sleep in with us and she is too old for this. If they have a 2 bed with a dining room we can convert to a bedroom we will take it - that has already been discussed. We just can't rent anywhere - we have tried all the local letting agents. Unfortunately on top of this my son has Autism and he can be quite destructive and aggressive so the council won't gve us the rent bond thing incase he damages something and we lose the deposit. This is why he needs his own room though, for when he has a meltdown (I don't like calling it that but it is the best way of describing it)

We will live anywhere in the district (the exception of 2 places as I was in a very violent relationship to a nutter - we are left alone in the country but would not be safe living in these 2 places, he has set fire to my house several times, I can't expose my children to this risk). I am happy to take my kids to and from school as I drive, my son is getting special help at the school he is at and he has finally settled there - it has taken since September - and they understand my sons needs and accomodate those, so I would rather keep him there. He will get statemented so the LEA will cover that cost when he does. If we move out of the council district we will have to change all of his doctors, schools, health visitors, hospital dosctors, etc... so we would rather stay in this council district (not immediate area) so we can do this.

We have also enrolled the help of our MP who shows us letters from the council, there have been 5 properties since December, all of which have gone to people with a greater need than us (we will be in dire need a few days before eviction and then will get offered something, even if temporary).

having tried to rent recently, in all honesty there is no way we could cram into a one bedroom flat - and we don't earn enough to be considered for one, my husband does not being home enough take home pay. But because he is working it puts us at a disadvantage - if you are claiming benefits you get more rights than those that don't. And this I don't think is fair in this current climate, not just for us but also for thousands of other families too who are going to be needing somewhere to live.

carolt

Sounds dreadful - poor you.

Really hope you get housed somewhere suitable soon; you sound about as good a case for a council tenancy as I've ever heard, certainly far better than all those pregnant 17 year olds and their workshy boyfriends who seem to get all the council flats round here.

Best of luck.

blue_monkey_2

Yes, this is why we get frustrated. But, I am sure we will be sorted by the end of the year - just in time to have a new start in 2009 x

neverdespairgirl

You are in a horrible position! So sorry to hear it, and I hope the council finds you somewhere suitable and local ASAP.

blue_monkey_2

I have to say, I went and had a browse on our local Estate Agents site, just out of interest and was amazed at how many houses have prices dropping.

My friend used to live in this village and last July she sold her house and went to live in Devon as they managed to get a bigger proerty for their money. their 2 bed house sold for around 350k. Now unless there is something seriously wrong with this house, it is bigger and £120k cheaper

I have tosay that if I was able I would be around this house like a shot.
http://212.50.188.108/cgi-win/vebra.cgi?details1?src=agent&PropertyCode=1101002/UPLAN/12370/2

I can honestly say this is the cheapest I have seen a 3 bed property in this area for a very long time. However, take a look at the price of this - looks like a shed to me, LOL:

http://212.50.188.106/cgi-win/vebra.cgi?details1?src=agent&PropertyCode=1101001/ROYDO/13864/1

I have just been having a browse, same old houses that have been for sale for months - why are the highest priced houses full of wood, chintz and exposed brickwork :rotfl: Money certainly does not buy you taste!!

Generali

Bl00dy expensive for a wood-clad mobile home!!!