House Price Crash Discussion Thread

mr.broderick

tr3mor wrote: »

I have no debt. I came here for the bargains on Grabbit!

:money:

My apologies tremor you are officially in my 10% nonskinters

Lotus-eater

mr.broderick wrote: »

can you prove me wrong? Or is this just another anecdotal attack on mr.b?

Anecdotal attack? I said "IMHO" you quoted "90%"

mr.broderick

Lotus-eater wrote: »

Anecdotal attack? I said "IMHO" you quoted "90%"

No seriously i've calculated it.

merlinthehappypig

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Not totally housing related, but a decent summary of what's going on and how house prices might be impacted (from Moneymarket.com). [/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]If you had watched the Budget yesterday, without knowing anything else about life in Britain, you might have been convinced that the UK is the place to be if a global recession hits.[/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]After all, Britain is well-placed to “weather economic storms”. In fact, it seems Alistair Darling can’t think of a better country to be in right now. Credit crunch? What credit crunch? Britain’ll be just fine, particularly after ten prudent years of Gordon Brown.[/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Yes indeed, if you were from another planet, you’d be pouring all your money into British assets, happy in the knowledge that the country was safe in the hands of Mr Darling and his colleagues.[/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]On the other hand, if like most of us, you haven’t recently landed from Mars, you’ll know that the Chancellor was talking cobblers…[/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Alistair Darling has clearly learned his Budget delivery lessons from Gordon Brown well. Be boring, is the key one. Trot off a lot of meaningless statistics, selectively compare your performance to other countries, and never ever accept the blame for anything.[/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Here’s the gist of what he said. The global crisis heading our way is all the fault of the US. The credit crunch “started in the American mortgage market” and now here in poor old Blighty, we’ll just have to put up with the problems arising from our US cousins’ profligacy. [/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]So it’s a good thing that here in Britain, thanks to ten years of Gordon Brown, we have such a strong, stable economy. So don’t worry, everything’s going to be fine. By the way, booze is going to get much more expensive, and so is driving. And I’m going to whack a tax on plastic bags if retailers don’t start charging for them. Don’t complain – this is all for your own good.[/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Treasury plans for property tax falls [/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]That’s the executive summary of the speech. But the small print told a different story. The Treasury knows that the UK housing market is in trouble. It expects tax income in 2008/09 from stamp duty, inheritance tax and capital gains tax to be £2.25bn lower than predicted in the Pre-Budget Report. It also expects lower income tax receipts as City bonuses fall.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]This is much more realistic. Let’s make something plain here. What we’ve seen in recent years is the blowing up of a massive credit bubble. Britain’s economic ‘success’ has been built on this glut of credit, channelled through the housing market. Our key business sector – the City, basically – is all about shuffling money in various creative ways. Our consumers are more indebted than ever before. [/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]But unfortunately, the credit bubble that has been lifting us up for so long has now popped. So to suggest that Britain is well-placed to weather this economic storm, is like saying that Lastminute.com was the best place to be when the tech bubble popped in 2000. It’s something that only a fool, a liar or a politician would say.[/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]As Liberal Democrat Treasury spokesman Vince Cable put it in The Telegraph: “The Government is hoping for the best, not preparing for the worst.” Ambrose Evans-Pritchard put it even better when he said: “Not since Labour’s Philip Snowden delivered the Budget in 1930 has any Chancellor offered an accounting more certain to be swept away by hurricane forces of global finance.” [/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The truth is that the UK economy is already in a hole and it’s going to get a lot deeper. Today’s Telegraph for example, is littered with references to 1929 and the Great Depression. It’s obvious to most people without an agenda that the US is now in recession (the Fed is now buying up sub-prime mortgage debt, a sign of sincere desperation). We can’t avoid the same fate.[/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Drinkers and drivers bear the brunt [/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Yet the Government is still raising taxes, making life harder for people just as it’s about to get a lot worse anyway. Alcohol has finally become a health tax target. From Sunday, prices will go up by 6% above the rate of inflation, and by 2% in real terms every year for the next four years. So the supermarkets in Calais will be over the moon about that one.[/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]That said, if you’re planning on driving across the Channel regularly to stock up on booze, then you’d better check the savings warrant it. Driving and car ownership is going to become more expensive too, with swingeing increases in road duty, though voter unfriendly hikes in petrol tax will wait until October (so much for the ‘green’ Budget). [/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]So the Government’s trying to kid us on about the true state of the economy, and in the meantime, it’s raising taxes, and borrowing more money to try to spend its way out of trouble. It’s as if Gordon Brown never went away.[/FONT]

WTF?_2

fc123 wrote: »

...and I'm getting scared now. We are still on the wrong side of the line and my shop's turnover has fallen far further in the past 3 months than we anticipated.
If this is the beginning? What does the next 12 months hold?

We have rent review in June 08 and LL looking at increase of 70% :eek: .
Our neighbour has already received his demand.

Stupid as we could ride it out if they left it the same (there aren't hordes of retailers rushing to take units on in the area either) but big property companies don't think like that.

Maybe you could band together and negotiate a better rent deal? The prospect of losing loads of hard to replace clients in this market should make them sit up and take note.

WTF?_2

mr.broderick wrote: »

People still purchasing? Are you crazy? It's just most of the skint members on here who aren't purchasing, dont forget 90% of the people originally came here cause they had more debt than brazil. I've been looking on rightmove this morning, thinking of buying a little terrace to rent to a nice str.

I can assure you that I'm far from skint - yet I have no intention of buying a house any time soon.

I'm decrying high house prices because they are completely stupid and out of proportion to the worth of the house. Why on earth should I take on a stupid amount of debt to buy something that's patently overpriced? And furthermore the whole sub-prime crisis and looming recession has come as a direct result of the credit/housing bubble. High house prices have been disastrous for our economy.

mr.broderick

!!!!!!? wrote: »

I can assure you that I'm far from skint - yet I have no intention of buying a house any time soon.

I'm decrying high house prices because they are completely stupid and out of proportion to the worth of the house. Why on earth should I take on a stupid amount of debt to buy something that's patently overpriced? And furthermore the whole sub-prime crisis and looming recession has come as a direct result of the credit/housing bubble. High house prices have been disastrous for our economy.

!!!!!! thankyou, i'm sorry you missed the boat a few years back, i really, honestly do sympathise with people that cant afford to buy.

Vincenzo

mr.broderick wrote: »

!!!!!! thankyou, i'm sorry you missed the boat a few years back, i really, honestly do sympathise with people that cant afford to buy.

I don't. People talk about buying a house as if it is a right, like the right to vote. It isn't and never has been.

We have never had such widespread home ownership in this country. AND there is NOTHING wrong with renting! I think, the reason many people have been so negative towards renting is at the very heart of the 'problem' with the housing market. People perceived that they were missing out on huge gains in the capital value of property, whilst paying someone else's mortgage. Perhaps that attitude will change as the market calms down.......

brit1234

mr.broderick wrote: »

!!!!!! thankyou, i'm sorry you missed the boat a few years back, i really, honestly do sympathise with people that cant afford to buy.

Its not about missing the boat its about promoting stable economics. If anything the government has has helped fueled this bubble with shared ownership and lack of action. For the first time ever the housing market has been treated as a investment tool rather than its traditional role as one of humanities 4 basic needs.

I too can't afford to buy, i started saving a deposit 5 years ago on a good wage. I refused to take one of these stupid mortgages way over 3.5 times my salary because I knew it was unsustainable in terms of interest rates being well below average. Now I see people hurting at BOE interest rates of 5.25% calling for cuts. These people have helped fuel the overheated house market and now they are being repossessed in higher numbers. Its going to end in tears and is doing so now, it is completely unsustainable.

I think the only boat we have missed is the Titanic

mr.broderick

brit1234 wrote: »

Its not about missing the boat its about promoting stable economics. If anything the government has has helped fueled this bubble with shared ownership and lack of action. For the first time ever the housing market has been treated as a investment tool rather than its traditional role as one of humanities 4 basic needs.

I too can't afford to buy, i started saving a deposit 5 years ago on a good wage. I refused to take one of these stupid mortgages way over 3.5 times my salary because I knew it was unsustainable in terms of interest rates being well below average. Now I see people hurting at BOE interest rates of 5.25% calling for cuts. These people have helped fuel the overheated house market and now they are being repossessed in higher numbers. Its going to end in tears and is doing so now, it is completely unsustainable.

I think the only boat we have missed is the Titanic

Yes you definitely missed the boat..next please