House Price Crash Discussion Thread

kriss_boy

van_persie wrote: »

140K to 110K? Easily.
Did anyone expect rampant HPI of around 300% over the past 10 years?
Then why not accept that the market - that is so clearly a bubble bursting - won't fall by a mere 20%?
I fully expect 40% falls from peak at the trough in around 3 years.

Hey if house prices fall by 40% then thats excellent news because I'll be able to afford a detached 4 bedroom house easy peasy.

I can see property at the bottom of the market depreciating in value... but to suggest 4 bedroom family homes will suddenly fall into the same bracket as 2 bed flats once did is nonsense.

A matter of weeks ago I went to see a one bed ground floor flat with no floor in the bathroom, no heating and dilapidated windows and doors and they had already rejected several offers in excess of 60K. And Im talking about a pretty crappy town in scotland here.

40% my butt

Turnbull2000

HammersFan wrote: »

You say here that prices can go down as well as up. You seem to be forgetting the 'up' bit then. You nor anyone else can be certain of the way the market is going - and your advice on investment research sounds rather patronising. If anything was a 100% sure bet then we'd all be rich. I'm willing to bet good money that someone who buys today will be in a better position in 10 years time than someone who keeps on renting hoping for a crash. But that's just my opinion and I am prepared to admit that I might be wrong.

You also seem to put a lot of faith in the predictions of the big banks and the IMF. Aren't they the same people who failed to foresee the sub-prime problem and who are reporting big drops in profits? Good economists will always say that their predictions are not anything like guarentees. Someone buying today gets a house to live in - and if they can afford the payments, what's the problem if prices fluctuate a bit.

I just get quite frustrated that you scaremonger people away from the market with your ill-considered advice stated with way too much certainty.

You're like a record on repeat HammersFan, more so that these supposed 'scaremongers'. At least there's some logic and reasoning from the other side, whereas you on the other hand... well, you simplify the situation and ignore the deeper issues so much it's getting embarrassing. I believe the last time I rebuked your 'arguments' you simply failed to reply.

kriss_boy wrote: »

Hey if house prices fall by 40% then thats excellent news because I'll be able to afford a detached 4 bedroom house easy peasy.

I can see property at the bottom of the market depreciating in value... but to suggest 4 bedroom family homes will suddenly fall into the same bracket as 2 bed flats once did is nonsense.

A matter of weeks ago I went to see a one bed ground floor flat with no floor in the bathroom, no heating and dilapidated windows and doors and they had already rejected several offers in excess of 60K. And Im talking about a pretty crappy town in scotland here.

40% my butt

Are you really suggesting that the price gap between the bottom of the market and top will increase even further? If property only at the lower end depreciates, how do you suppose people will upsize to the larger family homes? Answer - they won't. Higher values homes will have to fall to plug the price gap.

kriss_boy

carolt wrote: »

If you bought as an 'investment', I suggest researching your investment strategy somewhat better next time.

The figures are simple. Ive bought a one bed semi for 84.5K.. and doing most of the work myself I can completely rennovate the house and extend for 25K max...

....I can only see a loss if house prices fall by 30% before I sell up....

carolt

....Well, I'd sell up soon then; you might be lucky...

Aliktren

dolcevita wrote: »

Could somebody please tell me why high house prices are a good thing.

Seriously, why is paying say, 200k for a house, better than paying 100k for the same house?

only a good thing for people who bought one when they were still 100 k :rolleyes:

carolt

HammersFan wrote: »

You say here that prices can go down as well as up. You seem to be forgetting the 'up' bit then. You nor anyone else can be certain of the way the market is going - and your advice on investment research sounds rather patronising. If anything was a 100% sure bet then we'd all be rich. I'm willing to bet good money that someone who buys today will be in a better position in 10 years time than someone who keeps on renting hoping for a crash. But that's just my opinion and I am prepared to admit that I might be wrong.

You also seem to put a lot of faith in the predictions of the big banks and the IMF. Aren't they the same people who failed to foresee the sub-prime problem and who are reporting big drops in profits? Good economists will always say that their predictions are not anything like guarentees. Someone buying today gets a house to live in - and if they can afford the payments, what's the problem if prices fluctuate a bit.

I just get quite frustrated that you scaremonger people away from the market with your ill-considered advice stated with way too much certainty.

The reason I place faith in headlines re crashes from the IMf etc is because they are self-fulfilling prophecies - house prices, in this country at least, fluctuate almost entirely on sentiment. When enough people believe buying a property (or several properties) is the route to riches, they will do so; when they believe prices are about to crash, they will hold off, thus ensuring prices for those selling ie those needing to sell, do fall.

I agree, as long as someone can afford the payments, there's nothing wrong in buying.. But kriss_boy wasn't looking to buy a home; he appeared to want to make a large profit in a short space of time too. That I doubt he will achieve, in the current market.

kriss_boy

I was looking to buy a home to live in and thats what i did.

Originally I looked at flats but we (my girlfriend and I) saw the similar house to my brothers and saw the same potential. So my girlfriend chipped in and we bought it together. We cant wait to move in and start living so its not all about money.

We paid 84,500 which is cheap. A similar one sold for at least 95 recently and theres another one on at a fixed price of 99K right now. Ours just needs new heating to be in the same ball park as those and I can do most of it myself.

I think Scotland is a different kettle of fish. Being close to edinburgh, towns like mine are becoming affordable alternatives to living in the burgh istelf...

abaxas

dolcevita wrote: »

Could somebody please tell me why high house prices are a good thing.

Seriously, why is paying say, 200k for a house, better than paying 100k for the same house?

Vanity..... :<

HammersFan

Turnbull2000 wrote: »

You're like a record on repeat HammersFan, more so that these supposed 'scaremongers'. At least there's some logic and reasoning from the other side, whereas you on the other hand... well, you simplify the situation and ignore the deeper issues so much it's getting embarrassing. I believe the last time I rebuked your 'arguments' you simply failed to reply.



Are you really suggesting that the price gap between the bottom of the market and top will increase even further? If property only at the lower end depreciates, how do you suppose people will upsize to the larger family homes? Answer - they won't. Higher values homes will have to fall to plug the price gap.

I'll give you some logic and reasoning if you like. Over history houses have gotten more expensive as society, and people in general get richer, and houses become shorter in supply. House prices may be over-valued, but they may not. Only time will tell. If people hold off buying, that tends to lead to pent up demand in the market and stimulates fast growth when people start buying again. A lot of the evidence people post a about a crash is pretty flimsy. House prices are still about 4% higher than this time last year. I'll admit there is next to no growth but next to no crash either.

You simply dismiss people's arguments that don't concur with your own. That isnt a debate. House prices may crash, but its not certain. Also, I wouldn't want to give the impression that I want massive house price growth either - I want to buy a bigger house and rapid growth makes that harder for me. but there is little I can do about price movements apaprt from try to get myself a good deal in wahtever market I choose to buy in. I just find that some of the posts by people wanting a crash a little dramatic to say the least - and left unchallenged that gives a distorted view.

ManAtHome

Aliktren wrote: »

only a good thing for people who bought one when they were still 100 k :rolleyes:

Only if you're going to live in a tent or die.

Ok, you bought at 100k, now 200k
Next step up the ladder when you bought was 140k, now 280k
Instead of paying 40k to trade up, it now costs you 80k - good news?