House Price Crash Discussion Thread

Generali

nelly wrote: »

I really dont get all that green belt lark and looking at fields and stuff

And them ramblers who dont like wind generators

Them massive white windmills are far more impressive than some sodding grass

Sodding Grassbury sounds like a green belt type of place dunnit?

I quite like the countryside - I enjoy my mountain biking. It seems to me though that any development whatsoever is automatically rejected and fought tooth-and-nail.

Where my family live, a huge house was knocked down to be replaced by 4 townhouses. A much more efficient use of the land and hardly a massive squeeze on local facilities.

The way my family and the others in the area fought it, you'd think they were trying to build a brothel!

I asked my Old Mother Generali (OGM) where she thought that people should live if not in new developments like that. Dinner conversation took a definite turn towards the icy from there.

pagerank

moonunit42 wrote: »

Any one interested in this subject should read:

'Boom, Bust: House Prices, Banking and the Depression of 2010' by Fred Harris.

Available on Amazon or Google it for some potent reviews from bond traders, analysts and forecasters etc.

In doubt? Read this perceptive article on the book from 2005:

http://www.moneyweek.com/file/3075/housing-boom.html

See anything familiar? You could be at risk if you ignore it.

I sold all my UK property last year and have no intention of re-entering the UK market in the next few years. Buyers Beware.

A remarkable read. I've ordered the book.

Our house has been on the market for 15 months. Commutable green belt. Picture postcard stuff. Plenty of viewings, a few offers below asking, I wish I'd accepted one of the earlier offers now. I knocked 80k off having just spent 25k 'adding value'. I know three other sellers in/around our village all have similar tales with buyers now making offers up to 30% below asking.

You would assume it's overvalued, drop the price some more? Valuations tally favourably with similar stuff locally but they're not shifting either. I'm now considering shaving another 45k and leaving it there. I get the distinct impression things don't look great over the next couple of years. I'm looking to emigrate so I'd rather sell sooner and take the perceived loss. Others are maybe not so fortunate or flexible.

My BiL works for a large property auction house. Latest auction day 40ish lots. 31 failed to reach reserve or received no bids. The worst result ever by a huge margin. Commercial is a dead duck.

Fred Harris hit the nail squarely on the head back in 2005 'It all happens in 2008'.

Sisyphus

nelly wrote: »

If there is a housing shortage how come theres over 1 million for sale on rightmove alone

This might sound sarcastic.....well because it is....but

If I had a million quid on my desk I would'nt claim I had a money shortage.

Could it possibly be that someone has been lieing? y'know like estate agents because they only work on commision and rely on volumes????

shirley not

The housing shortage is the biggest lie of the lot.
I looked into the stats some time back - there are statistics on Communities and local Govt website and went up to 2005. Compared with mid 90's the increase in the number of dwellings had easily kept pace with the increase in the number of households. So if there is a shortage, it is no worse than it was in the mid '90's when prices were a third of where they are now.

chelseablue

pagerank wrote: »

A remarkable read. I've ordered the book.

Our house has been on the market for 15 months. Commutable green belt. Picture postcard stuff. Plenty of viewings, a few offers below asking, I wish I'd accepted one of the earlier offers now. I knocked 80k off having just spent 25k 'adding value'. I know three other sellers in/around our village all have similar tales with buyers now making offers up to 30% below asking.

You would assume it's overvalued, drop the price some more? Valuations tally favourably with similar stuff locally but they're not shifting either. I'm now considering shaving another 45k and leaving it there. I get the distinct impression things don't look great over the next couple of years. I'm looking to emigrate so I'd rather sell sooner and take the perceived loss. Others are maybe not so fortunate or flexible.

My BiL works for a large property auction house. Latest auction day 40ish lots. 31 failed to reach reserve or received no bids. The worst result ever by a huge margin. Commercial is a dead duck.

Fred Harris hit the nail squarely on the head back in 2005 'It all happens in 2008'.

15 months, blimey!

What is the asking price and area?

Could you post a rightmove link to it?

There are some v. knowledgeable folk on here who could offer some advice.

adr0ck

Sisyphus wrote: »

The housing shortage is the biggest lie of the lot.
I looked into the stats some time back - there are statistics on Communities and local Govt website and went up to 2005. Compared with mid 90's the increase in the number of dwellings had easily kept pace with the increase in the number of households. So if there is a shortage, it is no worse than it was in the mid '90's when prices were a third of where they are now.

cant see how that can be true

in the 90's approx 160K were built

now its about 175K (and falling)

with the amount of immagration weve had i cant see how 15K extra a year is enough (though i could be wrong...i don't really understand this issue)

on another note in the 90's we used to build (very approx figures) 30000 new flats a year now we build 88000 new flats a year

we used to build 80000 detached homes a year now we build approx 36000 new detached properties a year

so we've probably got a big shortage of detached houses and a massive over supply of flats

Sisyphus

adr0ck wrote: »

cant see how that can be true

in the 90's approx 160K were built

now its about 175K (and falling)

with the amount of immagration weve had i cant see how 15K extra a year is enough (though i could be wrong...i don't really understand this issue)

on another note in the 90's we used to build (very approx figures) 30000 new flats a year now we build 88000 new flats a year

we used to build 80000 detached homes a year now we build approx 36000 new detached properties a year

so we've probably got a big shortage of detached houses and a massive over supply of flats

houeseholds are smaller and living in flats

adr0ck

but if thats true

then were not building enough and therefore we have a housing shortage

Vincenzo

I don't think we can dispute the government figures (see Barker report) on the housing shortage. This is a huge headache for the Government and a major problem which needs addressing.

Where I live (fairly large commuter town in Surrey), properties are still selling well and I have not witnessed any real fall in prices (I am involved in the London/South East property market - and no not an estate agent). Those properties that were always hard to sell are perhaps sticking on the market longer and it is true that some vendors who need to sell may have to revise their expactations on price.

Does anyone remember the blip in 2004? Granted now is very different, but many people sold in 2004 calling the end of the bubble and moved into rented accomodation waiting for the market to plumet. I bet they regret that now!

I for one will not be selling any property and I would certainly not shy away from buying if the right one came up.

I think it is true to say that if you take a long term view and are not forced to sell by other circumsatances, you are better off being in a falling market than out of a rising one!

neilhew

Hi All,
Housed prices are too hight principally due to the money lender encouraging high lending, after all they only way they increase sales, is by lending more money. We need lower prices so that our children, and grandchildren can afford to buy a decent home. Why is it that people make such a fuss about rising fuule prices etc. and yet seem to do little about rising house prices? And yet this is for many people the largest outgoing. If we pay less on a mortgage, then there is more money for the rest of the economy. It is bad for the economy, when too much money is lent out, that happende with Northern Rock. And yet some so called 'Housing Experts' claim that hight prices are good for the economy, quite the reverse, they are only trying to talk up the market, for their own benefit. Prices need to drop by 50% in most areas, for the noraml type of house. The multipliers used to borrow money should go back to 2.5 or 3.0 as was the case many years ago.
By the way, I am a surveyor, and I do not benefit from high house prices. The lower the prices, the more houses will sell. After all, that is how retail business works. Drop prices by half, and sell three times as many. It is good business sense.

adr0ck

neilhew wrote: »

Hi All,
Housed prices are too hight principally due to the money lender encouraging high lending, after all they only way they increase sales, is by lending more money. We need lower prices so that our children, and grandchildren can afford to buy a decent home. Why is it that people make such a fuss about rising fuule prices etc. and yet seem to do little about rising house prices? And yet this is for many people the largest outgoing. If we pay less on a mortgage, then there is more money for the rest of the economy. It is bad for the economy, when too much money is lent out, that happende with Northern Rock. And yet some so called 'Housing Experts' claim that hight prices are good for the economy, quite the reverse, they are only trying to talk up the market, for their own benefit. Prices need to drop by 50% in most areas, for the noraml type of house. The multipliers used to borrow money should go back to 2.5 or 3.0 as was the case many years ago.
By the way, I am a surveyor, and I do not benefit from high house prices. The lower the prices, the more houses will sell. After all, that is how retail business works. Drop prices by half, and sell three times as many. It is good business sense.

as a surveyor you should know that if prices dropped by 50% no new homes could be built (they couldn't afford to be)

are you really a surveyor?????