Correction in progress!

economic

BrockStoker wrote: »

That's quite a bit of cash. I thought I was pushing it with around 14% here. However, if there are further significant falls, I'll be wishing I had 30%+!

Like you, I'm also happy with my position if things settle down from here on in.

Yeh its only because i released some equity from my property whilst also accumulating earnings plus i was gifted some cash too.

Its actually worse then that as i have about 10% in P2P. Am thinking now of derisking from P2P and feeding that into stocks.

BrockStoker

Looks like the correction is back on again. NASDAQ is down more than 3% just prior to close. It seems that the falling price of oil futures is not helping.

Probably still not the "buy signal" I'm looking for tonight, but will be keeping a very close eye on the markets!

username12345678

I am 37% cash and another 8% or so in absolute returns/bonds.

This is by accident of SIPP transfer timings.

The question now is whether I follow my original plan in light of present volatility.

My gut instinct is that I should.

eastcorkram

Another fall of over 1000 points again for the Dow. Over 4%.

Thrugelmir

BrockStoker wrote: »

It seems that the falling price of oil futures is not helping.

North Sea oil is back on stream after downtime for maintenance. While US shale fracking output remains high. OPEC no longer dictates the price.

eskbanker

Thrugelmir wrote: »

North Sea oil is back on stream after downtime for maintenance. While US shale fracking output remains high. OPEC no longer dictates the price.

North Sea oil production is a tiny fraction of OPEC's though - according to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_oil_production (data sourced from US Energy Information Admnistration), the UK is 20th in the 2016 world rankings, with no less than ten separate OPEC countries producing more, so I'd contend that OPEC's influence on oil prices is somewhat more tangible than the UK's, although clearly there's more to the North Sea than the UK sector (Norway being 15th in the table).

Filo25

Thrugelmir wrote: »

North Sea oil is back on stream after downtime for maintenance. While US shale fracking output remains high. OPEC no longer dictates the price.

Haven't followed oil much, is the general rule still that once the price heads over $60 a barrel or so the shale producers can ramp production economically, which pretty much caps the price around that range?

BrockStoker

Filo25 wrote: »

Haven't followed oil much, is the general rule still that once the price heads over $60 a barrel or so the shale producers can ramp production economically, which pretty much caps the price around that range?

I think the figure is closer to $55 right now. Brent oil is under that as of yesterday, but all eyes will be on the BH rig count later on today.

economic

If we have a steepening yield curve and global growth surely this is just a correction in the stock market that won!!!8217;t lead to anything serious and therefore this correction should be bought? Question is when. The general global market is back to levels seen in October last year. So far it!!!8217;s not so much the size of the correction more so how quick it has been. This probably makes it even more likely for a quick rebound.

BrockStoker

I'd agree with most of that. The sell off has been pretty indiscriminate so far. Good companies with strong Q4 results getting thrashed. I think there are likely to be strong rebounds in certain sectors at least, but I'm not so sure that the rebound will be quick.

I'm betting at least some funds will have their lowest valuation points of the week tomorrow, but I think there is a good chance of even lower valuations next week, so I'm (probably) holding off buying once again, despite the possibility that the current opportunity may be over after today.

As of writing the Nikkei 225 is down around 3.5%, and NASDAQ/S&P 500 futures are also in the red.