Thoughts on House Pricing..

51mm5

Rates do have an effect but it is not the only factor. There are supply and demand factors at play also as well as a whole host of others. No one can easily predict house prices because of the complexity of factors, you and the house price crash crew have been trying for 10+ years and have called it spectacularly wrong.

buggy_boy

Crashy_Time wrote: »

I struggle to see how rates moving up could NOT be relevant to house pricing?

Its your usual copy and paste from a link at housepricecrash.co.uk its a very tenuous link and more based on american markets and american interest rates... I could post a link saying food prices are going up (With the link if people need to spend more on food they wont be able to spend money on property so it will drop)..

Your link is a nothing story, the DOW "might" have dropped because of a "Fear" of a "possible" rate rise, that "might" have a knock on effect to the uk which "might" mean rates rise slightly faster. There are a lot tenuous links, If you had posted a link that said interest rates had risen and banks were going to pass that onto mortgages then I would say relevant.

For years you have been saying a crash is coming, just because a crash will happen at some point does not mean it is imminent, although according to you it has been imminent for years... Your the kind of person that stands on a corner and says "The world is about to end". The world will end at some point..

Crashy_Time

buggy_boy wrote: »

Its your usual copy and paste from a link at housepricecrash.co.uk its a very tenuous link and more based on american markets and american interest rates... I could post a link saying food prices are going up (With the link if people need to spend more on food they wont be able to spend money on property so it will drop)..

Your link is a nothing story, the DOW "might" have dropped because of a "Fear" of a "possible" rate rise, that "might" have a knock on effect to the uk which "might" mean rates rise slightly faster. There are a lot tenuous links, If you had posted a link that said interest rates had risen and banks were going to pass that onto mortgages then I would say relevant.

For years you have been saying a crash is coming, just because a crash will happen at some point does not mean it is imminent, although according to you it has been imminent for years... Your the kind of person that stands on a corner and says "The world is about to end". The world will end at some point..

So the recent market moves didn`t happen, and you claim to know better than the aggregate market what will happen to interest rates?

PokerPlayer111

51mm5 wrote: »

Rates do have an effect but it is not the only factor. There are supply and demand factors at play also as well as a whole host of others. No one can easily predict house prices because of the complexity of factors, you and the house price crash crew have been trying for 10+ years and have called it spectacularly wrong.

10 years might not be enough, this chart is pretty decent representation of market psychology, it is usually pretty good at predicting:

https://imgur.com/a/qaN8I

The chart is over exaggerated to make a clear point. Maybe just a house correction is coming say 30% dip ?

It does seem like we are more likely in the return to "normal" section, maybe a little below. We'll soon find out if any fear starts to set in.

The peak is 2007 in this chart, and if you check house prices with an inflation adjuster calculator it does seem about right?

Im 80% bear 20% bull as i said in another thread.

_CC_

Crashy will continue to spout his nonsense in this section of the board because he genuinely believes he can help initiate a crash by scaring sellers/buyers on a popular forum.

Similar to the made up threads you get cropping up from time to time which have similar motives.

_CC_

Crashy_Time wrote: »

I struggle to see how rates moving up could NOT be relevant to house pricing?

The link you posted was about equities, not UK houses.

Of course equities are going to sell off as bonds become slightly more attractive.

Rates affect housing with regards to affordability. What is the yield on 10 year gilts after these movements? What rates can house purchasers currently fix at for 5 / 10 years?

jimbog

Crashy_Time wrote: »

So the recent market moves didn`t happen?

They certainly did. In case you missed them:

http://www.cityam.com/279865/nationwide-house-price-index-annual-rate-house-price-growth

buggy_boy

Crashy_Time wrote: »

So the recent market moves didn`t happen, and you claim to know better than the aggregate market what will happen to interest rates?

Would that be pretty much every index saying house prices have risen in the last year? Or are you trying to hope that the few indexes that have said there has been a slight fall for a month or two (Often happens this time of year) means it must be a trend for house prices crashing?

Crashy_Time

buggy_boy wrote: »

Would that be pretty much every index saying house prices have risen in the last year? Or are you trying to hope that the few indexes that have said there has been a slight fall for a month or two (Often happens this time of year) means it must be a trend for house prices crashing?

I am talking about the bond market, not a house price index. The financial markets are anticipating higher interest rates, if you think you know better you should borrow as much as you can and buy as many houses as you can (or did you already do that :rotfl:)

steven_norfield

Right, pick up zoopla, and throw it away. Its useless for trying to negotiate or consider house prices.


al Zoopla does is take the last known sale price and apply the local increase rates, it can't factor in anything else, such as condition, local market boom (here in Cambridge for example Astra Zenica has had a massive effect over the last 2 years), local factors and indeed, the vendors personal circumstances.


A vendor in a chain or who is trying to purchase a particular house may take 330k for a 350k house, but someone who isn't under time pressure simply won't.