House Price Rise Discussion Thread

macaque_2

!!!!!!? wrote: »

Indeed - many of the more industrious immigrants (ie the Poles) are here to actually work and not to scrounge off the system.

Should the UK economy take a dip they may well decide to go somewhere else in Europe with better work prospects or back to Poland where the economy is fast improving (apparently Poland is having to 'import' a lot of workers from places like the Ukraine to fill demand).

I wonder just how much BTL business hangs on housing immigrant workers?

According to David Buick on 'Wake up to money' (Radio 5) this morning, the london market is a false market, distorted by 1,000,000 east Europeans who are living 8 to a unit (in units designed for 2 people). According to him, the London market is 'artifically high'.

teabelly

The biggest annual fall in house prices in recent history was a huge 3.8% (1992) The chap from capital economics who has been bleating on about a massive crash for the last several years predicted the average house price in 2007 would be about 140k. It's 200k+ This is where the over priced figure comes in as this person is still deluding himself that he was right and what is worse people that should know better than to believe him! Over the long term house prices will rise. Buy when you want or rent if you prefer. As long as you can afford the mortgage and keep some money to one side to cover unfortunate eventualities you'll be fine. Ignore the experts that bleat about crashes as the market has only had annual drops 4 times since 1970!

The biggest worry is the credit crunch which will push houses out of reach of ever more people. Good news is more people will have to rent so there will be higher rents and greater profits for BTL landlords. Before anyone complains about BTL leeches there is nothing stopping any of you getting together with a group of friends, buying a BTL each and letting out to each other. This way you can be on the housing ladder and not wasting money on giving a stranger equity. In future years you can use the equity for a deposit on somewhere to own yourself or move into your own BTL. I have no idea why such a simple solution is not promoted more!

Romani_Ite_Domum

kingkano wrote: »

you live in a very tiny micro-cosm. I am an immigrant who came here 8yrs ago from Australia, and have settled and since bought/sold 2 houses.

I know maybe a dozen friends who have settled like me (from various places, oz, nz & india). Some havent bought houses some have.

Most people think immigrant is a dirty word to describe dole scrounging africans or east europeans that come to do manual jobs. Your just encouraging the stereotype so I am arguing that.

I dont agree with the OP that immigration in and of itself is forcing house prices but it does factor into the equation. Other factors also affect immigration and what people decide to do when they get here too....

Thanks for the anecdotal. I know a few people who have immigrated to Australia so it's about even so far. I accept that I do live in a tiny micro-cosm of this country which is one of the reasons why I like forum discussion.

I do not think I am encouraging the stereotype, I am asking if the stereotype is true and to what extent.

As you say, it does factor into the equation when it comes to house prices but whether this factor is significant or not is what I would like opinion on.

At present, my belief is that it insignificant. I am happy to change that belief if someone could argue otherwise.

kingkano

Romani_Ite_Domum wrote: »

Thanks for the anecdotal. I know a few people who have immigrated to Australia so it's about even so far. I accept that I do live in a tiny micro-cosm of this country which is one of the reasons why I like forum discussion.

I do not think I am encouraging the stereotype, I am asking if the stereotype is true and to what extent.

As you say, it does factor into the equation when it comes to house prices but whether this factor is significant or not is what I would like opinion on.

At present, my belief is that it insignificant. I am happy to change that belief if someone could argue otherwise.

Probably its close (on a permanent basis) - not sure on a temporary basis. The UK used to give out working holiday visas much more readily than OZ did, and not many people wanted a working holiday visa to OZ (to earn 1/4 the amount as here - might as well have a holiday lol).

I personally dont think the stereotype is that prevalent. You only have to visit earl's court to see how many antipodeans there are around. And I wager a good percentage of them don't do manual labour (more IT, office, etc type jobs).

Their contribution to housing market though would be an interesting one. For the most part they are happy to spend the majority of their money elsewhere (tripping about, drinking, sightseeing etc) and house share even room share on the cheap. This obviously does something in the market I guess.....

But then they might settle and become just like you or I.

On the other hand africans, europeans, indians, all act/react differently. Of the few people I know who are Indian, they most definitely want to own their primary residence (and do currently). Usually for family related reasons.

Polish people also love sharing houses fairly cramped, to send money home or save it.

I guess if these kinds of people stop coming, or make different arrangements. Will there not be ALOT of housing stock available (to rent or buy) and this could have a major affect on the market??

If I'm rambling a bit I apologise...

Turnbull2000

pickles110564 wrote: »

A house's value is only what someone is prepared to pay for it,not what all these so called experts say.

Exactly. And when people are no longer willing or unable to pay, prices come down.

jay7_2

Romani_Ite_Domum wrote: »

who are these immigrants?
What do they do?
Where do they live?
Do they buy houses?
Are they here long term or will go home at some point?

Only immagrants I know of where I live, work in very low paid jobs in agriculture. They make money to send home. They live on farms in squallid conditions and the rent comes out of their pay. Are these the immagrants we are talking about?

I am an immigrant from Eastern Europe myself. I agree the majority of fellow immigrants match your description.

However, there are a lot of people originally from Eastern Europe who either bought their own properties in the UK, or are prepared to do so as soon as they save sufficient deposits.

And there is a large group of us who could buy now if we wanted but we choose to rent for the time being and see how the property market develops.

From my previous discussions with other immigrants from Eastern Europe I recon only about 1% of us want to stay in the UK permanently or long term (i.e. more than 10 years).

Conrad

teabelly wrote: »

The biggest annual fall in house prices in recent history was a huge 3.8%

(1992)

My parents in law owned in one of the best addresses in N London called Hadley Wood, a place full of surgeons, footballers, Lennox Lewis, city boys etc.

There house was calued at over £800,000 in 1987. They divorced and had to sell. THE MARKET price became £400,000 in 1992.

My Brother owned flat on the Essex London border cost £59995 pre - crash. It fell to £19,000 so in the end he handed back the keys, as did many in the area.

3.8% eh. Dream on.

happinessfactory

Living in West London I know an enormous number of immigrants, of every colour and nationality. Most of them rent property, a very few (given the prices round here) own the homes they live in. Every single one I know works their @rses off - unlike several Brits around here, who seem to prefer scrounging off the dole / claiming their tax credits whilst living in their council houses, all the while believing they're entitled to slag off people trying to provide a better life for themselves and their families.

My preferred immigration policy would be to welcome economic migrants with open arms and kick every lazy moaning Brit out - our economy would be transformed for a start.

If Poles want to live 8 to a room, let them. Anyone prepared to make short-term sacrifices in order to make long term gains is an asset to the workforce in my view, and I wish there were more of them.

SquatNow

pickles110564 wrote: »

A house's value is only what someone is prepared to pay for it,not what all these so called experts say.

That wasn't me by the way! Honest!

Pobby

Conrad wrote: »

My parents in law owned in one of the best addresses in N London called Hadley Wood, a place full of surgeons, footballers, Lennox Lewis, city boys etc.

There house was calued at over £800,000 in 1987. They divorced and had to sell. THE MARKET price became £400,000 in 1992.

My Brother owned flat on the Essex London border cost £59995 pre - crash. It fell to £19,000 so in the end he handed back the keys, as did many in the area.

3.8% eh. Dream on.

Yep!Sounds about right!