Unemployment Down, Wages up - any explanations?

molerat

michaels wrote: »

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42337659

Unemployment down,

Except in Scotland http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-42337708 I wonder what spin wee nippy is going to put on that one.

GreatApe

ilovehouses wrote: »

Do you honestly think London will maintain a coffee shop every 25 metres without migrants? I don't.

We need a contraction in things like coffee shops barbers cafes nail bars etc so if there is one every 50 meters rather than every 25 meters it will be fine.

The consumer will also adapt; maybe they'll make their own packup, buy less expensive coffee, buy sprouts on a stalk which require less labour (they're premium don't you know), clean their own toilet instead of having a cleaner, eat less strawberries etc.

In many cases a departing migrant may well be taking their job with them. I really don't think the consumer is up for giving people doing low status jobs a pay rise for no other reason than they're British.

Besides if you're currently unemployed an extra 40p an hour isn't going to tempt you into fish gutting.

The UK has full employment now and will continue to have full employment in the future

Population growth is important I am not so concerned if it is native or migrant. Right now the population is growing about 0.75% annually which imo is good. What will happen to population growth post EU exist? I do not think it will change a lot maybe it will go to +0.60% annually?

Thrugelmir

ilovehouses wrote: »

I don't disagree but I'm not leaving my warm nailbar where I've got coffee and internet on tap to go and pick frozen sprouts without a decent pay rise.

Without aspiration you'll be there all your working life eraning a minimum wage. Well until there's a machine built that removes the need for humans. .

GreatApe

ilovehouses wrote: »

I don't disagree but I'm not leaving my warm nailbar where I've got coffee and internet on tap to go and pick frozen sprouts without a decent pay rise.

You wont have to. For every 250 migrants that leave 1 doctor is surplus to requirement that does not mean one doctor now needs to gut fish or pick sprouts.

The marginal doctor might become a teacher, the marginal teacher might become a teaching assistant, the marginal teaching assistant might work in Tesco, the marginal Tesco worker might become the fish gutter

Likewise for every migrant that comes and is so low skilled (or just doesnt speak much english) that they take up the fish gutting job. That pushes up maybe a few dozen natives up the skill pay and status chain.

Well yes, if workers leaving are replaced by new workers then discussions about what happens if the workforce contracts are moot. Native or migrant does matter though - the natives don't fancy low status jobs - migrants have fewer choices.

Dont be silly, the natives today have options that are better than fish gutting so they do the better options. If the migrants left, or never came, then those better options would not exist and they would do the low status low pay jobs. Even today plenty of brits do low status low pay jobs its just that the migrants are more representative so we paint a simple picture that few brits do low status low paid work which is not true.

GreatApe

ilovehouses wrote: »

A non-English speaking low skilled migrant takes a fish gutting job and pushes dozens of natives up the skill, pay and status chain? I can see the point you're trying to make but you're dramatically over-egging the pie.

Well yes its hard to convey because we do not actually have a lot of migrants. A better example might be qatar its a nation mostly of migrants. What do the locals do do any of them gut fish or clean toilets or the streets? No because they have imported so many migrants (population growing 10% a year) that none of them have to do the low pay low status jobs. But had they not imported any migrants how would their country function without refuse collectors and people processing food etc?

Its not so obviously clear in the UK because we only import about 0.5% of the population as migrants per year. If the UK imported 6 million migrants a year you would find that in a very short time even our lowest skilled natives would go from fish gutting strawberry picking and shelf stacking to much higher pay and status work

If the migrant sprout picker leaves my job as a nail bar technician still exists.

Groups have various demand profiles so as they leave various jobs disappear. Its hard to see with just 1 person because you cant see 1/250th of a doctor or 1/1000th of a taxi driver or 1/1000th of a nail bar worker disappearing.

Thrugelmir

ilovehouses wrote: »

Perhaps a robot will take your job and you won't be able to afford to have your nails done anymore?

In my line of work I've witnessed technology advance. Over the past 20 - 25 years salary levels for the majority have fallen as a result. Fewer people are required to process the same volume of work. As increasingly it's just data transferred between systems. No paperwork. There's no turning back.

phillw

michaels wrote: »

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42337659

Unemployment down, wage growth up.

What could have caused it? Can't be the reduction in inward migration as we have been assured by businesses on multiple occasions that this is having no impact at all on wages or productivity.....

Unemployment is a fictitious number as the DWP actively pursuade "unemployed people" to become "self employed people who can't find work", as these show up on the DWP figures as "employed people".

Wage increases lower than inflation, so that not that great either.

If you were looking for a story to justify leaving the EU then this is not it. We haven't left yet and most people with a vested interest are still hoping that we won't leave or we will achieve the same result as not leaving (i.e. a supersoft brexit). Once reality hits then we'll see some real movement.

Graham_Devon

phillw wrote: »

Unemployment is a fictitious number as the DWP actively pursuade "unemployed people" to become "self employed people who can't find work", as these show up on the DWP figures as "employed people".

Wage increases lower than inflation, so that not that great either.

If you were looking for a story to justify leaving the EU then this is not it. We haven't left yet and most people with a vested interest are still hoping that we won't leave or we will achieve the same result as not leaving (i.e. a supersoft brexit). Once reality hits then we'll see some real movement.

Whether it's to do with brexit or not, it doesn't really matter. The fact is we have seen a decrease in net migration.

One would have to be avoiding a rather large elephant in a room to ignore the coincidence this has with a brexit vote. People lack confidence in coming here now, which is no bad thing.

That alongside another issue though - the multiple house occupancy thing has hit levels migrants aren't happy with any longer. I saw a programme a few weeks back now where someone from Poland explained how she had to live in London to be able to be here. I.e. the full time job in a shop in a london suburb just meant squalid multiple occupancy conditions with absolutely no privacy. It really didn't seem worth it in the end. Why come here to live in such conditions, when you can just stay put back in Poland with family around you and see a similar outcome.

Thrugelmir

ilovehouses wrote: »

Sorry to hear that. It's not the norm - as the increase in nail bars, coffee shops, dog outfitters and those places where fish nibble scabs off your feet demonstrates.

These are things people spend money on when they've got so much they don't know what to do with it.

No need to feel sorry. I'm old school. Experience and skills still hold a premium and open doors. Feel sorry for the younger generations. Easy to obtain the qualifications. Far more difficult now to obtain the life skills. As simply aren't the opportunities to advance.

Blueday

GreatApe wrote: »

Dont be silly, the natives today have options that are better than fish gutting so they do the better options. If the migrants left, or never came, then those better options would not exist and they would do the low status low pay jobs. Even today plenty of brits do low status low pay jobs its just that the migrants are more representative so we paint a simple picture that few brits do low status low paid work which is not true.

Your argument assumes that low status jobs are always low paid but this wasn't the case before the influx of cheap migrant labour in the early 2000s. Low status, pleasant jobs used to mean low pay. Low status, unpleasant jobs meant high pay.

When I was younger I did some pretty grotty jobs but was paid very well for them and I would do these jobs again (even gut fish) if the pay was right.