Borrowing putting UK at risk of collapse

economic

ilovehouses wrote: »

I suspect if Crashy was able to demonstrate his STR decision of the late nineties was bearing fruit he might be somewhat less coy about actually talking about the numbers. If Crashy can't make it pay (a single, middle-aged man who values the utility of a dwelling as not much more than a place to sleep and keep the rain off) it's going to be even more difficult for anyone else.

I also don't think risk is much considered either. A strategy where you take on an expensive housing short and invest 100% in the stock market seems very high risk to me.

you would say that you love houses

Agree that risk is not considered - however you have it the other way round. a portfolio of globally diversified stocks is less risky then uk property. Now risk is very subjective. But people often confuse risk and volatility being the same thing - they are not.

Herzlos

economic wrote: »

non-existent poverty

The significant number of people living in poverty may not agree.

qwert_yuiop

economic wrote: »

Well if you look at the S&P500 (as a proxy for global stocks, which is a good proxy) it has tripled over the last 20 years (excluding dividends).

Uk housing market has also tripled on average over that timeframe. I dont have the breakdown but i imagine where Crashy lives (Scotland?) prices would have lagged the uk average. In which case it is very debatable if he would have been better off owning vs invested in the stock market.

The question is did he fully invest in the stock market? Given his posts probably not.

If he lives in Aberdeen, he’s done the right thing.

qwert_yuiop

GreatApe wrote: »

People here are not obsessed with house prices its just a side show. The market will move the way the market will move no amount of hate or love will change it.

The loons over at hpc of course spend most days hating the world for not conforming to their confirmation bias predictions.

Isn’t the London market contracting?

economic

Herzlos wrote: »

The significant number of people living in poverty may not agree.

There is no poverty. No one is starving to death. No one is homeless (apart from those who CHOOSE to be).

Graham_Devon

I have to say, I still don't understand why most threads on this forum turn into a discussion based on the premise that the majority of people renting are choosing to do so, while putting wealth into other areas.

Such a tiny minority. Most who rent simply have no other choice, and again, the majority won't health wealth stored in other ways.

Herzlos

ilovehouses wrote: »

For most people renting is a choice. They might say they want to buy but five minutes looking through their bank statements will show where their true priorities lie.

Yeah, paying their rent and bills. There's this narrative that people don't buy because of iPhone contracts, eating out and expensive coffee, but it's just as likely that it's because paying rent + bills + expenses doesn't leave much room for saving a deposit unless you're co-habiting with a partner.

economic

ilovehouses wrote: »

Stay at home for a couple of years, co-habit with partners/ friends, move somewhere cheaper, spend less, tap up BOMAD etc etc

If buying a house is really a priority then spending most of your money on rent and bills would suggest otherwise. The walking doesn't match the talking.

I agree. I have a friend my age who's dad gambled away a few hundred k and released equity on the family home to do so. The mortgage lender couldn't extend the mortgage to my friends parents due to age so now my friend decided instead of losing the home, he would be the owner of the house.

I guess he got on the ladder by bailing out his parents!

Crashy_Time

Jack_Johnson_the_acorn wrote: »

Not really though Crashy........ Rather than going off of Foxton's share price, the US interest rate or your rent that's not changed in 100 years, why not look at the movement of "actual sold prices" since you've been posting your nonsense..........

Nationwide Avg House Price Index calculator

Valuation date 1 (Q1 2014):
£190,000
Valuation date 2 (Q3 2017):
£225,784
Percentage change:
18.83%

That must sting Crashy........... :beer:

Meaningless if sales volumes are dropping and rates rising, most people would rather give up the 30 odd grand IMO to avoid the misery of trying to sell a house for months or even years, or maintaining an empty property that they are trying to shift. Downplaying the significance of US rate rises shows just how out of touch you are, this bubble was maintained by zero rates and not much else......

Graham_Devon

ilovehouses wrote: »

For most people renting is a choice.

And you have just stated your total lack of understanding of the issues people all over the country face.

Sure, you could probably look at statements and take out £100 of (in your opinion) unwarranted spend.

But £100 a month is nothing compared to just the cost of agency fees for renters. Let alone saving deposits.

Your second post says "stay at home for a couple of years longer" as if everything is so easy. What about the thousands of people with children, middle aged renters etc? Move somewhere cheaper - "easy at that"... until you factor in the costs of moving rentals.

There has to be some middle ground. Otherwise we just go around in cirlces pretending everyone can afford to buy a house, they just don't want to - which is an absurd argument I've only ever witnessed on this sub forum or from the greedier landlords trying to clear their conscience.