China Still Surging !!!!

wombat42_2

YorkshireBoy wrote: »

I've been following your posts on China and must admit your move surprised me.

After all, as I recall, Gartmore climbed 27p one day, then fell 37p (18p + 19p) over the next two days...hardly the end of the world!

I agree with Aegis in that you were investing above your risk profile.

Personally, I'm only in Gartmore with £1K (12.5% of my ISA portfolio), and have seen a 67% increase since May*.


* Tarnished somewhat with a 20%+ loss over 10 months on Aberdeen Prop Share...but you live and learn!

Just got twitchy after two days of 2.7% falls just over a week ago and there was some apprehension in the media that it might be the start of a correction. But no the market soared the following 6 days after I switched, including a hefty rise of 3% today ! I stll have some China and emerging market exposure in my Global funds tho.

Aegis

wombat42 wrote: »

Would you put any dosh into China ?

I have some exposure to China already, but I don't intend on going further in, as it's already as much as my personal risk profile allows in any one emerging market, and it's not the only one I'm playing with! (I have money in Latin America and Russia too, so I'm currently missing the I in BRIC)

I'm also under-invested in Europe, so that's likely to be my next priority if I come across any new money either through external sources or rebalancing a little.

dunstonh

I have a bit in China but a number of times over the last few years I have been rebalancing periodically and the gains I have made from China outweigh my original investment and are in much safer funds. I could have made more had I stayed put but a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. I remember the last China crash and that was a minus 70% jobby.

nrsql

Is China any more risky than the UK at the moment?
Is anywhere safer than China (or several other supposedly high risk areas?).

I reduced my China exposure a while ago (took out lots more than my original stake) but that's just because I felt exposed not because I was unduly worried.
Not a place to be if the odd 5% swing concerns you.

I feel diversification is a bit wimpish but I'm not all that brave.

Geoffo_M

wombat42 wrote: »

Do you have any dosh in China funds ? I am thinking of maybe moving 50% back into China.

Feel a bit of a clot - last week, I moved 50% OUT of China!

Ho hum

Debt_Free_Chick

All of this just goes to prove that no-one can forecast what the markets are going to do. It's worth remembering that for every commentator that predicts a fall, there are a number of investment managers who see that as a buying opportunity.

It just proves the value of diversification. I view my portfolio as one of .... "is there anywhere I can afford NOT to invest in?"

For that reason, I put my 2004 mini ISA into China & India (Fidelity funds). India has returned 194.9% and China, a staggering, 250.3% since then. My initial £3,000 is now valued at £9,678 Not sure whether to top some of that off or not .... where do I put it?

I also have exposure to UK, US, Europe, Asia Pacific & Latin America. All small stuff really though .... but then I'm just seeing what I might accumulate, without having any real target or "need" for the dosh. For that reason, I'm probably going to ride it out - but continue to diversify with new money.

Will I do well? Who the hell knows!!!

wombat42_2

Debt_Free_Chick wrote: »

All of this just goes to prove that no-one can forecast what the markets are going to do. It's worth remembering that for every commentator that predicts a fall, there are a number of investment managers who see that as a buying opportunity.

It just proves the value of diversification. I view my portfolio as one of .... "is there anywhere I can afford NOT to invest in?"

For that reason, I put my 2004 mini ISA into China & India (Fidelity funds). India has returned 194.9% and China, a staggering, 250.3% since then. My initial £3,000 is now valued at £9,678 Not sure whether to top some of that off or not .... where do I put it?

I also have exposure to UK, US, Europe, Asia Pacific & Latin America. All small stuff really though .... but then I'm just seeing what I might accumulate, without having any real target or "need" for the dosh. For that reason, I'm probably going to ride it out - but continue to diversify with new money.

Will I do well? Who the hell knows!!!

Well I shifted from 100% China to 100% Global funds. Global funds are in theory quite a nice concept - you let someone else work out how to do the diversification thing and it is constantly adjusted for you. However most Global funds are dross and dont perform too well but there are a few top performers with star managers doing well such as Neptune Global Equity and Artemis Global Growth. I plan to just leave my dosh there for about 10 years.

Incidentally Hong Kong is down today but so are other markets. What spooked me when i pulled out of China was that Hong Kong went down for two days while the other markets didnt.

robp

Must admit, I've caught the investing bug now!

I'm actually quite annoyed that I didn't look at this years ago, my family and friends have always been conservative with their money saving, so it wasn't until I started reading these threads that I started dipping my toes in.

Roll on next April.....

I'm reading a lot about the Allianz BRIC Stars at the moment, which seems to be doing well. Might give them some of my hard earned soon.

Other than that, the Best Invest portfolio analyser reckons I'm short of 'Quality Bonds' and Hedge Funds. Think I'll avoid the Hedge Funds for now, but otherwise it's great fun deciding which funds to choose and watching the performance!

I'd be so happy with your £3k > £9k Debt_free_chick and would certainly be re-balancing at that point. Just my opinion though.

nrsql

Always concerned when people talk about re-balancing.
Sounds a bit like they have fixed percentage allocations worked out and periodically buy and sell to meet those allocations. The sort of thing done by portfolio managers to generate costs without any effort or passive trackers.
Means that you will mostly be moving from growing areas to diminishing ones. Only good when the market turns, poor otherwise - so maybe a good strategy every 3 or 4 years (unless you are managing other peoples money and gain from the activity).

Aegis

From what I've seen it can be an exceptionally good way of mitigating risk by locking in gains in risky sectors and transfering the excess to a safer area. As an example, if I have £1000 in China and £1000 in UK Equities which grow to, say £1700 and £1200 respectively, then I might rebalance them to £1450 each to bring the portfolio back to my original risk factor and also to ensure that if China drops by 50% suddenly, it will only take 25% of my portfolio value rather than closer to 30%.

It might not seem like much at that simple level of analysis, but it does defend your growth against risky sector downturn at the cost of a little less growth potential in the long run.

As far as I can tell, it will cost me nothing to do this when the time comes!