Rightmove +2.7% in Sept

nobblyned

Thought I might as well point it out given the crowing in certain quarters with the previous months drop.

Seems like the drop could have been a HIPS related effect as proposed by some but widely derided by others.

Long term I think there's a long way to go before we can see whether it is price drops or just slowdown ahead.

beingjdc

Broadly fair to blame HIPs - Rightmove is going to be all over the place for a while as they don't 'mix-adjust', so if there's a sudden leap or collapse in sales of either small or big homes, it can cause a big shift in the figures without the price of an identical house actually having changed much at all.

Interesting that one well-known economic correspondent has nonetheless chosen today to reaffirm his expectations of a fall. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/10/15/ccom115.xml

nobblyned

Rather similar to his prediction in March....2005

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4314073.stm

And May.......2003

http://www.economics.ox.ac.uk/members/andrew.farlow/Newspaper%20articles/The%20Independent%20Newspaper%2014%20May%202003.pdf

mystic_trev

These figures we're expected and really don't mean much - see yesterdays Sunday Times article.

The recent turbulence in financial markets, and the credit crunch it has caused, is having an effect. A report to be published tomorrow by Rightmove, the property website that tracks asking prices in England and Wales, shows that house prices have been flat for the past six months. Although prices in the four weeks to mid-October rose by 2.7%, this followed a 2.6% fall in the previous period. For the first time in 18 months, it seems, buyers are in a position to haggle. Even in the capital’s leafier streets and larger houses, a few cracks are appearing.

http://property.timesonline.co.uk/tol/life_and_style/property/buying_and_selling/article2636848.ece

I'll only believe a Property market correction has started once I see several months of Negative figures from Nationwide and Halifax.

mystic_trev

Actually the Rightmove report is worth a read and starts off with this Headline to the report HIP's deadline masks price standstill

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/pdf/p/hpi/HousePriceIndex15thOct2007.pdf

dannyboycey

nobblyned wrote: »

Thought I might as well point it out given the crowing in certain quarters with the previous months drop.

If you believe Rightmove's figures, if the rate of growth between last month and this month were sustained, house price growth would be approximately 65% in one year!!

i.e. In laymans terms - these figures are laughable.

MidTwentySomthing

Rightmove figures are pretty inacurrate really as their figures are based on asking prices. I'm intrested in the selling price and therefore will be keeping a close eye on the land registery figures.

The problem with land registry figures is that they lag by about 3 months due to completions and exchanges and whatnot.

Anecdotal evidence from EA's and my neighbour next door (who is a landlord) says that things are looking pretty ropey.

pamaris

mystic_trev wrote: »

Actually the Rightmove report is worth a read and starts off with this Headline to the report HIP's deadline masks price standstill

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/pdf/p/hpi/HousePriceIndex15thOct2007.pdf

Yes I have just read their analysis on page 2 and it is quite balanced.

What has effectively happened is that there was a sudden glut of 3BR houses. It was pointed out that they aren't even selling, so people will have to drop their prices:

"Miles Shipside adds: “Surges of properties coming onto the market increase both competition among sellers, and increase buyers’ bargaining power. Buyers are not soaking up this extra supply at the moment, and sellers who need a quick sale will have to respond by pricing competitively. The next few months should be a good time to pick up a deal as some sellers become more desperate to find a buyer”.
From page 2 of the report.

Romani_Ite_Domum

dannyboycey wrote: »

If you believe Rightmove's figures, if the rate of growth between last month and this month were sustained, house price growth would be approximately 65% in one year!!

Not sure what you mean.

Over the 2 months HPI would be .03% annualised this would be 3.7%

The RM figures will probably seesaw before Christmas before mom falls every month in the new year.

Edit: Correction to above if 2 months HPI at .03% was annualised (projected) it would be 1.8% for 1 year.

Terry_Tibs

hahahahaha smack round the chops for the HPC doomers.

mystic_trev

Terry's_a_Tit wrote: »

hahahahaha smack round the chops for the HPC doomers.

Terry - I don't know what you've been drinking (or smoking ) but everbody else seems to think there's (at least) a housing slowdown.