CPI Forecasts

pacemaker1000

What do you guys think CPI will be in the coming years?
If Labour get in will it go above 5%?
Current expectation is for a flat 2% but we are already creeping above 3%, higher than expected.

BobQ

pacemaker1000 wrote: »

What do you guys think CPI will be in the coming years?
If Labour get in will it go above 5%?
Current expectation is for a flat 2% but we are already creeping above 3%, higher than expected.

I think it will rise further, level off at about 3.5% and then gently decline.

It will probably remain at over 3% for longer if Brexit is a hard one and we do not get a favourable EU trade deal.

I doubt that it will matter which bunch of politicians run the economy.

antrobus

pacemaker1000 wrote: »

What do you guys think CPI will be in the coming years?

The OBR has a forecast until 2021.

http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk/faq/where-can-i-find-your-latest-forecasts/

pacemaker1000 wrote: »

....
If Labour get in will it go above 5%?

Maybe. Maybe not.

pacemaker1000 wrote: »

Current expectation is for a flat 2% but we are already creeping above 3%, higher than expected.

No, the last CPI number was exactly 3%, which was lower than expected. The consensus expectation was 3.1%.

BobQ

antrobus wrote: »

No, the last CPI number was exactly 3%, which was lower than expected. The consensus expectation was 3.1%.

True, but the real concern is that inflation affects people differently. It may be 3% on average but food is now rising at over 4% which means people will feel poorer. Also inflation is higher than average wage inflation.

BobQ

pacemaker1000 wrote: »

What do you guys think CPI will be in the coming years?
If Labour get in will it go above 5%?
Current expectation is for a flat 2% but we are already creeping above 3%, higher than expected.

Forecasts are easy, accurate forcasts are what you need. Consider the forecast in the link below.

When Q3 2016 CPI was 0.7, the OBR forecast (issued in March 17) was that it would peak at 2.7 Q4 2017. But it was actually 3.0 in Q3 2017.


http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk/forecasts-in-depth/the-economy-forecast/inflation/

Thrugelmir

pacemaker1000 wrote: »

If Labour get in will it go above 5%?

Why? The BOE is set a mandate, currently 2%, to control inflation. To do so interest rates will change to combat such an eventuality.

westv

I expect a rate somewhere between 0% and 25% for the next 40 years.

kidmugsy

westv wrote: »

I expect a rate somewhere between 0% and 25% for the next 40 years.

27%. I bid (-1%) to 27%.

Or, to be serious, nobody has the least idea. Nobody.

PeacefulWaters

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Why? The BOE is set a mandate, currently 2%, to control inflation. To do so interest rates will change to combat such an eventuality.

Mandates can be unset by politicians with staggeringly different agendas.

stoozie1

In response to BobQ above; why would food price inflation running at 4% make people feel poorer? I feel it's the one we have most control over and the household can adjust to compensate. With a fixed price utility like a phone package, or one's mortgage, we don't have the same control.

antrobus

BobQ wrote: »

True, but the real concern is that inflation affects people differently. It may be 3% on average but food is now rising at over 4% which means people will feel poorer. Also inflation is higher than average wage inflation.

I think the OP is more concerned about pension planning, than socio-economics.:)