Any active funds recommendations?

BrockStoker

AnotherJoe wrote: »

I swapped from biotech growth Trust because for my taste the latter was getting too concentrated in a handful of companies which i felt made it too risky.

That might have been a wise move. I certainly took a big hit when Celgene tanked recently. However, I still also think Celgene and Biogen are companies that have plenty of growth to offer over the longer term, so happy to stick with them. I actually prefer concentrated funds. Having said that, I think there is better growth prospects in the small/medium cap biotech space in the short-medium term, which is why I topped up the Polar Capital fund.

AnotherJoe wrote: »

I take the opposite view to BrockStoker on oil though , I think oil is dead for numerous reasons but mainly because electric vehicles will take off a substantial chunk of demand over the next 2-3myears and the oil price is very volatile and sensitive to even small drops in demand.

Much of the developing (and still growing) world depends on oil. China and India in particular are expected to increase demand for years to come. The switch from oil to to renewable energy sources is going to take many years (perhaps a decade or two). It isn't going to happen overnight, for many reasons, but especially because renewable energy is difficult to store (unlike oil).

This thread (and PDF that is included in one of the posts at the bottom of page2) is a good read: https://www.lemonfool.co.uk/viewtopic.php?f=16&t=443

Pay attention to the the projections of oil production from the major sources, particularly the Permian Basin. This, together with the factors mentioned above and the fact that the oil majors have not been investing in finding new wells is virtually certain to lead to a tightening of the market over time. But I digress - yes eventually the time will come to get out of oil.

AnotherJoe

BrockStoker wrote: »

Much of the developing (and still growing) world depends on oil. China and India in particular are expected to increase demand for years to come. The switch from oil to to renewable energy sources is going to take many years (perhaps a decade or two). It isn't going to happen overnight, for many reasons, but especially because renewable energy is difficult to store (unlike oIl.

It’s easy to store up to a point, then when storage facilities are full it becomes very difficult and “storage” consists of not extracting it. There’s an interesting Bloomberg video on YouTube about how precarious oil storage is at present. 85% full is the factor that I recall.

BrockStoker wrote: »

Pay attention to the the projections of oil production from the major sources, particularly the Permian Basin. This, together with the factors mentioned above and the fact that the oil majors have not been investing in finding new wells is virtually certain to lead to a tightening of the market over time. But I digress - yes eventually the time will come to get out of oil.

Not sure I can find it but I read an article a day or ago about how prices of oil woul fall due to new technologies making it cheaper to extract some oil sources and meaning a lot of other high cost oil reserves would be stranded.

TLDR summary - oil prices will fall.

And all we disagree on is the timing.

Time will tell we all place our bets and see where they fall

bigadaj

I can't see oil hitting leaks for any length of time going forward, there's a reason the Saudis are trying to list aramco, it's arguably lost a trillion dollars in value over the last decade.

As soon as demand increases then shale oil and gas will ramp up in the us. OPEC has little power and no discipline now, there's still large reserves around the world and the political wind has changed, subsidies to renewables around the world and increasing taxes on fossil fuels of all kinds.

BrockStoker

AnotherJoe wrote: »

It’s easy to store up to a point, then when storage facilities are full it becomes very difficult and “storage” consists of not extracting it. There’s an interesting Bloomberg video on YouTube about how precarious oil storage is at present. 85% full is the factor that I recall.



Not sure I can find it but I read an article a day or ago about how prices of oil woul fall due to new technologies making it cheaper to extract some oil sources and meaning a lot of other high cost oil reserves would be stranded.

TLDR summary - oil prices will fall.

And all we disagree on is the timing.

Time will tell we all place our bets and see where they fall

Yes, it will be interesting to see what really happens. Only 10% of my main portfolio is oil/energy, and 50% of that is profit, so I'm happy to let it ride. If things start to go pear shaped I can still get out with a profit, although I can't see that happening for a while yet. In the mean time my energy fund is rallying very strongly

BrockStoker

bigadaj wrote: »

I can't see oil hitting leaks for any length of time going forward, there's a reason the Saudis are trying to list aramco, it's arguably lost a trillion dollars in value over the last decade.

Yes, the Saudis are panicking. They tried to flood the market to get rid of the competition, and that didn't work. It actually back-fired on them - they ended up with huge debts and the competition (US shale) actually came out the other side stronger rather than weaker. So it's not surprising they want to make some quick money with that IPO. However, their new plan to squeeze supply is gaining traction, as the recent increase in prices shows.

bigadaj wrote: »

As soon as demand increases then shale oil and gas will ramp up in the us.

Yes, I agree, but I think the remaining shale oil wells have much less in them than you and others here are assuming, so we are likely to see supply ramp up for a while only, after which it will start to tail off. Most oil in the ground is simply uneconomical to recover, and there is growing resistance to fracking, which may also play a part.

bigadaj wrote: »

OPEC has little power and no discipline now, there's still large reserves around the world and the political wind has changed, subsidies to renewables around the world and increasing taxes on fossil fuels of all kinds.

Yes, the market is delicately balanced now, but the lack of future investment is bound to bite further on down the line. Investment in renewables is starting to catch up, but the developing world is still guzzling oil whilst growing, and that is what will tip the balance in favor of oil, at least for the moment.

OPEC still hold the cards with the US only representing a small fraction of the oil market. OPEC members have been complying very highly with the cuts in production, and it would not surprise me if cuts were deepened further if OPEC feels that it is needed to progress their agenda.

I may be off the mark somewhere (still a bit new to all this!), but that is my impression. Even annalists disagree with each other about what will happen. No one really knows for sure, but at least in the shot-mid term I think oil is a good bet for growth.

Sean473

For Global: Fundsmith Equity, Lindsell Train Global Equity
America: Baillie Gifford American Fund, JP Morgran US Smaller Companies
China: Baille Gifford Greater China Fund
Asia: Invesco Perp Asian Fund
Japan: Fidelity Japan Smaller Companies
UK: Old Mutual UK Smaller Companies, Marlborough UK Multi-Cap Fund
Europe: Baillie Gifford Europe Fund, Henderson European Smaller Companies Fund

BananaRepublic

IanSt wrote: »

I personally would keep away from active funds unless you had a lot of other savings or needed some specific attribute from them - but it is a personal choice and if you are happy then I'd be looking into funds that invested in an area that you had some knowledge of. That way you at least have some inbuilt knowledge of when to sell or transfer away to other funds.

I've never been able to sell in time, and I'm not convinced others have with a few exceptions. I've always gone for staying in for the long term. One of my funds was a darling for a while, then dropped out of favour. But over 20 years its done rather nicely, despite being unfashionable for a while.

Sites such as YouInvest allow you to compare the long term performance of funds. It always pays to diversify, both across and within sectors/markets since you can't predict markets and you can't predict which funds will be the best. And it might be a good idea to avoid the current trendy funds too.

Also make sure you understand the fundamentals of investing, so if you don't, get a good book, and read it.

IanSt

BananaRepublic wrote: »

I've never been able to sell in time, and I'm not convinced others have with a few exceptions. I've always gone for staying in for the long term.

That's one of the reasons that I usually prefer long term investing in passive funds - I don't have to worry about the manager/team behind the fund leaving and the performance going downhill. Making a call on the region and company size to invest in is usually enough for me.