House prices

NineDeuce

Immigration levels will have nothing to do with house prices. All that is said regarding immigration is nonsense theory - "if there are more people here, then housing demand will go up and raise prices" so vice versa.

But with immigration comes growth. EU migrants work, a lot them building houses. If there are less, then there will be less for the treasury, and less workers to build houses.

This, and any downturn in the economy will cause any potential decline to house prices.

Prices have risen year on year despite immigration. They have been since the early 90s, way before 'mass immigration' was to blame.

Eric_the_half_a_bee

NineDeuce wrote: »

But with immigration comes growth.

So GDP per capita stays constant, regardless of what skills immigrants have and how they relate to the needs of our country?

MobileSaver

LdnFtB wrote: »

so for young couples it's unlikely that they'll wait two decades to upgrade. ... much more vulnerable to negative equity.

Agreed however very few would purchase a place with the intention of selling again in less than, say, five years. With most mortgages being repayment, 100% mortgages being pretty much a thing of the past and record low interest rates making it much easier to overpay, even a FTB would find it hard to be in negative equity five years down the road. And, of course, if house prices do drop this also means their upgrade to a family home will be cheaper than otherwise.

Obviously there will always be exceptions to the rule but the vast majority of people probably have very little to worry about and there's a very good chance they'll look back and realise buying five years ago was the best thing they ever did (for a whole host of reasons, not just financially.)

MobileSaver

Gorgeous_George wrote: »

I never agreed with the hpc brigade.

That's odd because "a long overdue correction to house prices in the uk" is exactly what the HPC rabble believe in.

Gorgeous_George wrote: »

interest rates could rise next month ... This would be a huge downward pressure on house prices.

Gorgeous_George wrote: »

Christmas is too soon for any meaningful correction,

It's good to see that it didn't take you long to see the fallacy of your original claims.

Gorgeous_George wrote: »

However, interest rates could rise, immigration could fall, house building could increase. All things that [STRIKE]would[/STRIKE] could reduce house prices.

I've fixed that for you. Perhaps you are related to Trump? Do you think if you keep posting untruths they will eventually become true?

Conversely all those things could happen and we could still have the fundamental supply and demand issue causing house prices to continue increasing.

chappers

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Let`s see how you feel after the London market crashes

Give it up mate, there isn't going to be the crash you crave, every time it just gets further and further away from you. Yes minor corrections. By the time we've finished it's going to take a 70% correction or something for you to be able to say "see told you so"

lisyloo

especially if you don`t like the property/area that much

I'd suggest a lack of due dilligence if you've bought a property or area that isn't going to suit you at least medium term if not long term.

Koldweather1

i brought a couple of months ago and I really don't care about negative equity. I had a 21% deposit (thanks to some money from parents) and so its going to need a decent sized crash to put me briefly into NE.

I'm more concerned about IR's, but I have various contingencies just in case they do shot up big time, which given how indebted pretty much everyone and everything is (including the govt!) I'd be surpsised if they overdo it. 2-3 will be fine for me, obviously things will get interesting if they were to go 10-15%, but by the time they do get that high I should have enough savings in the bank that the pain won't be so bad as the interest from the savings will just help to pay any mortgage.

So in the end, I'm comfortable with the choice I made to get a house when I have, sure it may prove to be the top of this market cycle, but the lifestyle changes I've been able to change have greatly enhanced my life.

NineDeuce

Eric_the_half_a_bee wrote: »

So GDP per capita stays constant, regardless of what skills immigrants have and how they relate to the needs of our country?

How did you manage to knit that together?

GreatApe

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Really? I have heard people saying that the misery of negative equity is one of the worst most trapped feelings you can have, especially if you don`t like the property/area that much. Your experience will be different no doubt

Not many people are impacted by negative equity because only 3-4% of people buy in any given year the other 96-97% are insulated as they bought at prices below the peak year. Why do I have to keep repeating myself this is not difficult to understand. In London some 85-90% of people are insulated from a 40% house price crash ad they bought when prices were >40% lower than today

This does not even take into account repayment mortgages pushing down the debt owed. Your crazy hpc pals would already have paid down 10-20 years of a 25 year repayment mortgage had they not fooled themselves into the idea that prices were about to crash 50% by Christmas

Herzlos

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Really? I have heard people saying that the misery of negative equity is one of the worst most trapped feelings you can have, especially if you don`t like the property/area that much.

Yeah, negative equity sucks. But you had to buy with a minimal deposit in a fairly small window to be hit by hit.

I was, when I paid over the odds for my house, with a 15% deposit and a price crash of about 20-30% when the market collapsed in 2007. 10 years on, house price hasn't recovered but I'm now back in reasonable positive equity, and they'd need to fall another 20% for me to have "problems".
The only problems I had were with mortgage rates - at above 85% LTV the mortgage deals are bad (better than renting), and I'd hit about 98% LTV at one point. I've had no need to move so have been otherwise unaffected and having been here 10 years saved a fortune Vs renting as well as having more freedom and peace of mind.

Some people were worse off though; particularly those that got 110% mortgages before the market collapsed and prices never recovered.

Realistically at the rate London is increasing at, after a couple of years you're pretty well insulated against a modest drop.

Having to knock £100k off your asking price is sore, but it's not that big a deal if it's still going for £500k more than you paid for it.