House prices

Gorgeous_George

There is a possibility that interest rates could rise next month. I'm not as confident as some people but let's assume that they do. This would be a huge downward pressure on house prices.

Add in the effects of Brexit. More controlled immigration should relieve pressure on the housing market. More downward pressure.

We know that HMG have needed to keep the housing market buoyant to safeguard the economy and treasury receipts but Theresa May is weak following the Corbyn Sweetie Shop manifesto and the gullibility of the electorate.

All in all, I'm expecting a long overdue correction to house prices in the uk. I wouldnt be buying just now.

Good news for the younger generation and long overdue.


GG

Crashy_Time

Many won`t like the message, but many will also be hoping for the correction that is so badly needed.

ProDave

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Many won`t like the message, but many will also be hoping for the correction that is so badly needed in SOME parts of the country.

Corrected that for you.

Plenty of other parts of the UK where you would do well if you built a house to actually sell it for what it cost to build, Here we need a correction upwards to at least get us back to 2007 levels.

MobileSaver

Gorgeous_George wrote: »

interest rates could rise next month. ... This would be a huge downward pressure on house prices.

Fake news. An interest rate rise next month will not lead to "huge downward pressure" on house prices.

Gorgeous_George wrote: »

I wouldnt be buying just now.

The problem with that approach is that you end up like Crashy Time, waiting and waiting for years for what you consider to be the right price.

In Crashy's case that means he has been putting off "buying just now" for over ten years; even the most financially illiterate person will realise what a catastrophically bad decision that was and that he will now never make up financially for all those lost years. Basically for over a decade he has chosen to pay off his landlord's mortgage rather than his own... madness!

Fundamentally, trying to time the property market is a mug's game. If you need a property as a home then just buy when you need it and stop paying off someone else's mortgage. With the average property buy/sell being around 20 years between moves it is almost guaranteed that you won't be out of pocket when you come to sell regardless of any short term dips in the meantime (and of course if past experience is anything to go by then you will quite likely do rather nicely when you come to sell...)

_CC_

Gorgeous_George wrote: »

Good news for the younger generation and long overdue.

If it happens.

If you can't afford somewhere or think prices are too high: Don't buy.

If you can afford somewhere and feel comfortable with decision: Buy.

Simple stuff.

Second guessing the future with all the known interplaying factors is nearly impossible, let alone when adding unknown factors into the mix.

MobileSaver

MobileSaver wrote: »

Fake news. An interest rate rise next month will not lead to "huge downward pressure" on house prices.

Gorgeous_George wrote: »

MobileSaver. Time will tell.

Sure will! Based on your prediction we'll know who is right by Christmas...

Are you related to brit1234? (For those that don't know the story, brit1234 infamously predicted a 50% crash by Christmas, in 2008 I think it was... some of his HPC friends are still waiting!)

economic

The problem with time will tell is you maybe waiting a very long time and before you know it you are 50 and renting a bedsit!

Eric_the_half_a_bee

Gorgeous_George wrote: »

There is a possibility that interest rates could rise next month. I'm not as confident as some people but let's assume that they do. This would be a huge downward pressure on house prices.

A rise from 0.25% to 0.50% would not put a huge downward pressure on house prices.

Filo25

Why would interest rates rising back to what they were just over a year ago lead to huge downward pressure on prices, was there a huge boom in property values caused by the 0.25% cut last year that I somehow missed?

I'm not denying that there are significant headwinds for property at present (as have been building for a while) but I'm not sure a standalone 0.25% increase in rates is likely to lead to be the deciding factor.

Thrugelmir

Gorgeous_George wrote: »

There is a possibility that interest rates could rise next month. I'm not as confident as some people but let's assume that they do. This would be a huge downward pressure on house prices.

A 0.25% rise in rates. Would go unnoticed.

What's also gone unnoticed is that the BOE's support scheme ends next February. Another facet of the era of cheap funding is over. Lenders will need to start to pay the money borrowed back to the BOE. Funds will need to be sourced from alternative means.

LdnFtB

MobileSaver wrote: »

Fundamentally, trying to time the property market is a mug's game...With the average property buy/sell being around 20 years between moves it is almost guaranteed that you won't be out of pocket when you come to sell regardless of any short term dips in the meantime (and of course if past experience is anything to go by then you will quite likely do rather nicely when you come to sell...)

I do agree with the time in the market beating timing the market as a whole, but many first time buyers like myself re buying 1 or 2 bed flats/houses. They're hardly suitable for raising a family so for young couples it's unlikely that they'll wait two decades to upgrade. Hence more short term fluctuations in value are more pertinent for FtB, especially as their LtV will be much higher making them much more vulnerable to negative equity.