House prices

ukcarper

buglawton wrote: »

Actually I'm quite happy to see anecdotes based on real life here to add the the many stats being quoted. But just like anecdotes, stats can be quoted selectively

We do see endless quoting if 'you've never had it so good' housing stats while the evidence before our eyes, and from our own personal experience and memories, hints at a different reality! A bit like Stalinist Russia where official stats are telling the downtrodden peasants they've never had it so good.

Ah well, to the youth of today we say, 'let them live in castles'.

As I said I agree now is probably the hardest time for FTBs but it's needs some perspective. House price especially in relation to earnings have got up and down in the past and have been almost as high in the past. People who keep quoting the post man bought a house in nice road need to delve a bit deeper. Being able to pay a mortgage now is probably easier than it's ever been considering lower cost of living and interest rates, but that is not much use if you can't get a mortgage.

GreatApe

Windofchange wrote: »

:rotfl:

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/home-ownership-rate

That website is wrong look at the ONS figures not some american website

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2017/mar/02/home-ownership-in-england-at-a-30-year-low-official-figures-show

That is because we had an influx of 3-5 million migrants the vast majority of which (>75%) rent privately. If you exclude the recent migrants and look at natives the figures are a good deal better.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/property/house-prices/10663923/Rise-of-Generation-Rent-as-home-ownership-hits-25-year-low.html

Another point is that it is stupid looking at one peak year and drawing a conclusion from that, its like looking at the peak day of a share price and drawing a fall from that. It would be stupid you would need to do something like a 3-6 month moving average for the shares

And once again mass migration from 2004 onwards increased private renting and decreased ownership. It is not coincidence ownership started to fall from 2003/4 onwards when we opened the doors to the EU migrants in 2004 and of course the recession kicked out a few million from the mortgage market which made some locals have to rent too. But that has begun to reverse.

http://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-7706

Renting would actually appear to be at an all time high, especially for UK natives? Why has the percentage of UK nationals renting increased since 1996?

Your link says only 14% of UK born (page 17) rent.
That means very very few UK born rent long term
I myself rented for 14% of my adult life and then bought. (Rented from age 18 to 27 and expect to live to 82 = 14% private renter

Do you not understand what the stats are showing? That private rental for the natives is just a transitional tenure. Like myself the natives rent while at university and then for a few years while in their first job and then they buy or win the social housing lotto

GreatApe

Buglawton I've tried for a while to have sensible conversations with GreatApe, but all you'll get is anecdotes and made up 'facts'. Let's see how he explains the above.

Its easy if you can actually read and understand stats. Don't feel bad most the media and government cant do starts either.

As per your most important link only 14% of UK born rent privately.
But as we know renting is a transitional tenure, most renters rent for a few years and then buy.
In my case I rented from age 18-27 which would be 14% of my adult life

So what the data shows is that the private rental market is fit for purpose it is there for mobility and most (vast majority) of private renters move on from private renting. It is only a small handful of crash cheerleaders that hold out for 2-3-4 decades to spite themselves

The big problem, the housing 'crisis', is mostly a oversight by the media to the fact that we imported 5 million migrants and they came and rented privately changing the composition of the UK housing tenure towards more renting. Look at just the locals and private renting is low only 14%. Exclude people who want or need to rent (like me between ages 18-27 for uni and moving around the country for work) and very few natives rent who dont want or need to rent privately

GreatApe

buglawton wrote: »

Actually I'm quite happy to see anecdotes based on real life here to add the the many stats being quoted. But just like anecdotes, stats can be quoted selectively

We do see endless quoting if 'you've never had it so good' housing stats while the evidence before our eyes, and from our own personal experience and memories, hints at a different reality! A bit like Stalinist Russia where official stats are telling the downtrodden peasants they've never had it so good.

Ah well, to the youth of today we say, 'let them live in castles'.

You have it completely wrong!
The media and the lefties dont stop crying that things are !!!! and getting worse
Even stats are used to 'prove' that things are getting worse, eg ownership has gone down pretty much constantly since 2004

I am one of the very rare people who actually says hold on things are good very good we just have a very vocal minority crying that things are terrible and conning people into believing it

It is true home ownership is down since 2004, that is because since 2004 we have had mass migration and these people primarily rent privately (75% of those who have been here for 5 or fewer years rent privately vs 14% for the natives). What that did was post 2004 every year renting increased it is no surprise. But of course the media and government are too stupid or it suits them to not point out this fact.

For the natives private renting is only 14% and the majority of that 14% are transitional renters like students or young kids getting their first/second jobs across the country which is exactly what I did I rented between age 18-27 which means I was a renter for 14% of my adult life.

We have it really good in this country in every way.
It is annoying when lefties cry the sky is falling down but what is worse is the tories dont put them right. Maybe they are too embarrassed to say things are ok maybe they are scared that the lefties will drag someone on TV to cry that their life is !!!!.

I will say it again, things are great in this country for the majority.
There are problems, lots of problems but the vast majority of these problems come from dysfunctional people and families. I wish labor and the Tories would do more to try and fix that it is a real problem that causes the majority of misery in this country.

The NHS budget, taxes on the rich, pay caps, productivity, tuition fees, any and every other thing combined dont cause half as much pain and suffering as dysfunctional people/families. Also it impacts across the spectrum I know a few gambling addicts from well off families the pain and suffering they cause their families I dont think I could bear it.

So long as you are not a dysfunctional person this is a fantastic country to live in and there is no better time to be born than today.

GreatApe

Interestingly from your Link Mr crashy, it looks like the migrants are finally starting to buy in larger numbers

2006 = 1.43 million non uk born owners
2011 = 1.55 million non uk born owners
2016 = 2.01 million non uk born owners

They only bought about 100,000 net properties from 2006 to 2011 but that jumped to 450,000 net purchases between 2011-2016

---

Increase of 954,000 in households headed by non uk born between 2011 - 2016
47.4% of them went into ownership 36.3% of them went into renting.
So they are still dragging down average ownership but much less than in the past
For the period 2006-2011 only 18% of the increase in non uk born households was to owner ocupation

---

So the stats show what I postulated
That the migrants pushed up renting as the overwhelmingly rent privately
But that in time they too will buy and they did increase buying a lot but are still dragging the figures down

My guess is 2016-2021 the migrants might have finally reached uk equilibrium so they will stop dragging down the ownership figures. Post 2021 they might start pushing the figures back up assuming migration slows somewhat.

GreatApe

There is such a huge housing crisis in the UK that only half (47.4%) of newly arrived migrants who come here with little to nothing managed to buy over the last 5 years. What a horror only half the migrant households that came to the uk over the last five years are now owners

:rotfl:

Really there is no problem, dig one millimeter beneath the surface and you see that the UK market is logical it functions and is fit for purpose and ownership is near record highs for the locals and renting privately is near its lower bound to have a functioning mobile rental migrant for the students and young movers.

Windofchange

And off we go again on another tangent. To focus it back for you, you stated in an attempt at sarcasm / intellectual willy wangling:

GreatApe wrote: »

But clearly you do not understand what that means so let me help you by rephrasing it. Renting is at near historical lows (especially for the natives) so you cant have a big shift from renters to owners because we have far fewer renters than in the 1950s

I've responded with a link that shows that private renting for the natives as you call them is actually increasing, contrary to what you have made up. You then of course bash out your standard you're all stupid and don't understand stats reply. It's like showing someone an orange and them stating until they're blue in the face it's a banana.

Windofchange

GreatApe wrote: »

There is such a huge housing crisis in the UK that only half (47.4%) of newly arrived migrants who come here with little to nothing managed to buy over the last 5 years. What a horror only half the migrant households that came to the uk over the last five years are now owners

:rotfl:

Really there is no problem, dig one millimeter beneath the surface and you see that the UK market is logical it functions and is fit for purpose and ownership is near record highs for the locals and renting privately is near its lower bound to have a functioning mobile rental migrant for the students and young movers.

The problem is, you don't dig at all

https://www.migrationwatchuk.org/briefing-paper/367#people

Take a look at the wages section. You of course think that migrant = shoe shine boy at Euston station, or illegal taxi driver, but of course migrant covers Swiss bankers, Footballers, Management Consultants etc etc. Where is your data that 100% of migrants come here with little to nothing? If I took 100 migrants at random, would it not be reasonable to assume that some will be very poor, some very rich and most in the middle? You seem to believe that all migrants are earning £100 a week on a zero hours contract, and somehow manage to put aside a cheeky 100k over 5 years to buy a flat.

GreatApe

Windofchange wrote: »

And off we go again on another tangent. To focus it back for you, you stated in an attempt at sarcasm / intellectual willy wangling:

I've responded with a link that shows that private renting for the natives as you call them is actually increasing, contrary to what you have made up. You then of course bash out your standard you're all stupid and don't understand stats reply. It's like showing someone an orange and them stating until they're blue in the face it's a banana.

Your link shows the UK born rental tenure is 14% do you believe that to be too high? If so what should it be?

GreatApe

Windofchange wrote: »

The problem is, you don't dig at all

https://www.migrationwatchuk.org/briefing-paper/367#people

Take a look at the wages section. You of course think that migrant = shoe shine boy at Euston station, or illegal taxi driver, but of course migrant covers Swiss bankers, Footballers, Management Consultants etc etc. Where is your data that 100% of migrants come here with little to nothing? If I took 100 migrants at random, would it not be reasonable to assume that some will be very poor, some very rich and most in the middle? You seem to believe that all migrants are earning £100 a week on a zero hours contract, and somehow manage to put aside a cheeky 100k over 5 years to buy a flat.

Whatever their jobs are the fact is they are buying houses and getting on with life, contrary to the crash cheerleader thesis that houses are unaffordable many of them are finding them affordable......