BBC - RICS say prices down.

Generali

Now's the point at which things get interesting, IMO. Prices can't rise faster than wages indefinitely.

If LLs start to sell rather than buy, prices should start falling very quickly as half the buyers exit the market plus more property comes on to EA's books. If, as many protest, they are 'in it for the long term', they should act as a stabilising force, reducing the supply coming on, or at least not exascerbating things.

tr3mor wrote: »

Turkeys don't call for Christmas do they?

HSBC once put out a research notice about December elections in Turkey. The title? 'Turkey votes for Christmas'.

pieceoffluff

nollag2006 wrote: »

More evidence that interest rates have peaked, and will start to fall back over the next six months.

theres always the chance they won't

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6998189.stm

hope merv doesnt use royal mail to send those letters to the treasury

MikeLondon_3

A major correction in the market seems unlikely while economic growth is above trend and employment conditions remain buoyant," said RICS spokesman Jeremy Leaf.

Still, the survey showed housing supply remained tight and the sales to stock ratio, regarded by some economists as a more reliable indicator of housing market conditions, increased to 38.4 percent from 37.7 percent in August, above its long-run average.



These are quotes from that article.

Something it shows to me is that the media sentiment is now angled towards causing widespread panic.

6-12 months ago, I'm sure the above quotes would have been the headlines, not the new flavour of the month crash quotes.


Lord only knows what is actually gonna happen, but the media seem to be attempting to angle it in one definite direction...

tr3mor

nollag2006 wrote: »

More evidence that interest rates have peaked, and will start to fall back over the next six months.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm...0/cnking110.xml

Mervyn King has poured cold water on hopes that the Bank of England is gearing up for an emergency interest rate cut, saying it will not set rates to "insulate the banking system from the repricing of risk".

The Bank Governor used a speech in Belfast to warn that inflation remains a threat to the economy, severely undermining market expectations that the Monetary Policy Committee will cut rates by February.

If the Bank of England set interest rates based on house prices they would have raised them years ago so not to let house prices get out of hand. They're not going to cut rates because prices start to go the other way.

WTF?_2

MikeLondon wrote: »

A major correction in the market seems unlikely while economic growth is above trend and employment conditions remain buoyant," said RICS spokesman Jeremy Leaf.

Still, the survey showed housing supply remained tight and the sales to stock ratio, regarded by some economists as a more reliable indicator of housing market conditions, increased to 38.4 percent from 37.7 percent in August, above its long-run average.



These are quotes from that article.

Something it shows to me is that the media sentiment is now angled towards causing widespread panic.

6-12 months ago, I'm sure the above quotes would have been the headlines, not the new flavour of the month crash quotes.


Lord only knows what is actually gonna happen, but the media seem to be attempting to angle it in one definite direction...

Mass panic :rotfl:

The media has been constantly underplaying the problems caused/faced by the out of control housing bubble over the last few years.

If they actually told the truth about the underpinnings of the bubble and the 'strong economy' then there would be widespread panic as people realise that the whole thing is built on borrowed money (cheap, lax, credit) and can't be sustained in the long term.


Anyone who thinks that interest rates can simply be lowered again (they tried this trick in August 2005) is barking up the wrong tree. Lower interest rates would cause the pound to plunge on the foreign exchanges, massively pushing up the price of a wide range of goods ... not least anything to do with oil/fuel.

tr3mor

Generali wrote: »

HSBC once put out a research notice about December elections in Turkey. The title? 'Turkey votes for Christmas'.

They were obivously confident that we couldn't find a big enough oven for that Turkey!

tr3mor

!!!!!!? wrote: »

Anyone who thinks that interest rates can simply be lowered again (they tried this trick in August 2005) is barking up the wrong tree. Lower interest rates would cause the pound to plunge on the foreign exchanges, massively pushing up the price of a wide range of goods ... not least anything to do with oil/fuel.

Don't worry! Gordon will simply substitute transistor radios for plasma TVs in the CPI to keep inflation under 2%. :rolleyes:

happinessfactory

The banks' lending rates are diverging from the BoE's rates to reflect their own credit positions (ie they're in the s*** and now need to recoup their lost profits by charging more) so it's very simplistic to think we'll be okay if the BoE brings interest rates down...when the BoE's rate were at their lowest, Virgin were charging their customers 27.2% interest.

I read that the CML say 185,000 will be coming off their fixed rates in the next 6 weeks. Let's wait to see whether their mortgage payments come down before we heave a sigh of relief...

Conrad

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

As we do not have high unemployment or high interest rates, where is the catalyst for the price crash?

2 real examples;

1) Orange County California - lowest unemployment in US, highest demand for land where people want to live and very high immigration from Mexico et al
Prices down over 10% this year

2) Japan - had highest priced world real estate at the height of thier boom, higher demand on habitable space than SE/ England and near zero interest rates, yet when the market turned prices fell every year for 15 years!

nelly_2

In it for the long term?

why not just sell before they drop and buy back later?

That makes far better business sense no