Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

iro

Graham_Devon wrote: »

I'm just a little lost for words.

I mean, people like conspiracy theories. But this one? That because Faraga conceded, he was "in on insider betting"? Good grief. Doesn't stand up to 2 seconds scrutiny.

Suddenly, we all have to believe Farage can see the future.

However, everyone else who called it, including Tim Farron - well they are just politicians, doing what they do - no conspiracy here!

Farage as the evil genius?

I kind of Dr No with a pint and a fag instead of the white cat.

A man who can place bets with absolute certainty?

Well one things for sure they are not laughing at him now

This is the link to the poll of polls

https://whatukthinks.org/eu/opinion-polls/poll-of-polls/

showing remain with a 4% lead, personally I thought remain would win but bet against sterling because I thought it was overvalued even if remain won.

Of course the real return was made buying footsie the next morning.

I think the problem is that a lot of people writing about this do not really understand how markets operate from the inside. The average reader thinks that a financial journalist has some inside track they really do not.

Hindsight makes everything seem as if it was bound to happen.

System

The final result of the referendum isn't relevant. In fact the only reason it could have worked is because the final result wasn't known yet.

Just four minutes after the polls had closed, and with meaningful vote counts still more than two hours away, Sky had aired a concession from the world's most prominent Brexit backer, buttressed by data from YouGov. In a few hours these 'scoop' would prove spectacularly wrong, but in the meantime they spawned worldwide headlines, including from Bloomberg News and virtually everyone else. This one, which ran atop the U.K.!!!8217;s leading news site, the Mail Online, was typical. Referring to Farage's UK Independence Party, it read:

BREAKING NEWS: UKIP leader Nigel Farage sensationally concedes DEFEAT within seconds of voting closing as final poll gives Remain the edge 52% !!!8211; 48% in historic EU referendum

The news pushed the U.K.'s currency up'herding investors toward a cliff hours ahead of one of the largest crashes for any major currency since the birth of the modern global financial system. Trillions of dollars in asset values would be wiped off the books, but not just yet.

Come on, it's 3 paragraphs. I know you guys aren't stupid. Clearly this has nothing to do with predicting the result.

Whether it's true or not is one thing (maybe he just thought he'd lost, bit weird that he did well out if it) but pretending to be unable to read isn't much of a discussion nor does it do much to dispel the notion of leave voter intelligence.

System

I'll play your game Here you go, no ad hominems. Simple stuff.

The final result of the referendum isn't relevant. In fact the only reason it could have worked is because the final result wasn't known yet.

Just four minutes after the polls had closed, and with meaningful vote counts still more than two hours away, Sky had aired a concession from the world's most prominent Brexit backer, buttressed by data from YouGov. In a few hours these 'scoop' would prove spectacularly wrong, but in the meantime they spawned worldwide headlines, including from Bloomberg News and virtually everyone else. This one, which ran atop the U.K.!!!8217;s leading news site, the Mail Online, was typical. Referring to Farage's UK Independence Party, it read:

BREAKING NEWS: UKIP leader Nigel Farage sensationally concedes DEFEAT within seconds of voting closing as final poll gives Remain the edge 52% !!!8211; 48% in historic EU referendum

The news pushed the U.K.'s currency up'herding investors toward a cliff hours ahead of one of the largest crashes for any major currency since the birth of the modern global financial system. Trillions of dollars in asset values would be wiped off the books, but not just yet.

Come on, it's 3 paragraphs. Clearly this has nothing to do with predicting the result.

Whether it's true or not is one thing (maybe he just thought he'd lost, bit weird that he did well out if it).

iro

Of course the result was not known, do you trust polls with your money?

Sterling was overvalued whoever won.

Herzlos

Iro - I know reading comprehension isn't your strong point but I never said I'd struggle; just that I'll potentially waste time and have to bill my customers more. If it's too much hassle I can always work around it by leaving the expensive stuff inside the EU or relocate entirely.

But it does say a lot about you; you've certain my got quite an "I'm alright, Jack" vibe that comes from someone who's confident they'll be fine and lacks empathy. Which is all good and well if you never need to rely on the state but who knows what the future holds.

Herzlos

Graham - confusing Airbus with an airline is wrong because it shows a complete lack of research or awareness. Like I said; reading the first paragraph of any article about Airbus leaving would tell them it's not an airline. That post was an I'll informed rant without the slightest effort to understand the content.

Herzlos

What did Nigel do wrong? He lied about the outcome of the referendum based on inside information in order to manipulate market confidence to make his friends lots of money.

Why else would he just resign himself to a loss that narrow?

iro

Herzlos wrote: »

Iro - I know reading comprehension isn't your strong point but I never said I'd struggle; just that I'll potentially waste time and have to bill my customers more. If it's too much hassle I can always work around it by leaving the expensive stuff inside the EU or relocate entirely.

But it does say a lot about you; you've certain my got quite an "I'm alright, Jack" vibe that comes from someone who's confident they'll be fine and lacks empathy. Which is all good and well if you never need to rely on the state but who knows what the future holds.

You start by questioning my reading age and then go onto to ask for my empathy

:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:

At my throat and then at my feet

Graham_Devon

Herzlos wrote: »

Graham - confusing Airbus with an airline is wrong because it shows a complete lack of research or awareness.

But you think "I won't be able to go on holiday if we leave the EU" isn't showing a lack of awareness?

Herzlos wrote: »

What did Nigel do wrong? He lied about the outcome of the referendum based on inside information

What inside information? If he lied, so did hundreds of others in the media that night. A prediction is a prediction. It's not fact. Nigel did not lie, as to do so he'd have to know the result of the outcome, which neither he, nor any remainer stating the result would be remain that night.

With respect, I'm not going to bother replying to any more of your posts. This is ridiculous and I feel I'm being trolled here.

iro

I will not quote that second post Herz but that appears to be a very serious accusation-- I hope you have proof:)

Perhaps it is time to step away from the keyboard?