Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

Carl31

Fella wrote: »

Not at all. The EU would undoubtedly be worse off with no deal.

The UK may also be worse off, however it may be better off.

The EU are losing the UK. If they get nothing in return they will be worse off.

The UK is leaving the UK. Nobody knows yet whether what it gains will outweigh what it loses. Lots of people think it may do.

It's amusing that no Remainer on here is even prepared to concede that "no deal" would represent an utter failure on the part of the EU negotiators. This is such an obvious statement of fact that even ardent Remainers should openly acknowledge it. If it happens, you will see plenty of people (the standard example is German car manufacturers but obviously there are plenty of others) who will turn upon the likes of Juncker & their own elected poliiticians in rage.

Completely valid point, there are c70m people here who buy EU products, thats at least 10% of any EU traders sales, more likely more as we probably buy more than poorer EU countries. Thats a lot to lose in one hit, and that is in nobodys interests

There is a (remainer, mainly) view that the negotiation is that the UK is going cap in hand due to some massive fail on its part. "please sir, i made a mistake, please go easy on me", this is an equal playing field

gfplux

The financial times reports today that the Government is preparing to hire 2000 more civil servants to cope with Brexit.
I am sure someone has shaken the money tree to check how much this will cost.
This on top of the 1500 already hired since the referendum.

Fella

ilovehouses wrote: »

A couple of posts ago you were saying it's all a guess but now you say the EU would definitely be worse off? Bias?

Not at all. The EU undoubtedly benefits by having the UK as members, and when the UK leaves they won't be replaced by anything else.

The UK benefits from certain aspects of EU membership, but also suffers from other aspects. Unlike the EU, the UK will lose on the one hand but gain on the other. So whilst the UK may end up worse off, there is a logical argument that they may end up better off. I've not seen anybody put forward an argument of how the basket-case that is the EU will be better off without the UK (& indeed their reaction to the vote demonstrates that nobody in the EU believes it).

gfplux wrote: »

Which is why it was called a leap in to the dark.

Of course it is, I've certainly never denied that. However I'm in the camp that is happy for the UK to make that leap.

The other consideration that is ignored far too often is that Remaining would also be a leap in the dark, since nobody knows at what point the EUs finances may implode with a resounding bang, what other countries will join the EU, or what other closer integration the EU will demand of it's members.

I vote for the slightly riskier leap with far more control over our own destiny, every time.

Carl31

Fella wrote: »

The other consideration that is ignored far too often is that Remaining would also be a leap in the dark

plus the fact that our relationship with them would be very different. Knowing that we tried to leave previously they would now doubt ensure that the possibility couldn't happen again by imposing various restrictions on us, things wouldn't just go back to the way it was

Rinoa

Herzlos wrote: »

We can take a pretty educated guess. Something like 45% of our exports end up in the EU. If we lose any of that, which we will under WTO, then we need to replace it from RoW. RoW trade will cost more in general due to the logistics. So we'll need to replace it with slightly more trade to stay where we are.

So for every £1 in trade we lose from the EU, we'd potentially need to gain, say, £1.1 from RoW. We're already free to trade with RoW (and do indeed do so). So if we were able to grow RoW trade that easily we'd already have done so.

There isn't anything totally unique we can only buy from the EU. Most trade between us is in similar products. The EU makes Tiguans, we make CRV's. With no deal both will be 10% dearer in each others market. We'll lose some CRV sales to the EU but sell more at home due to the price advantage.

Most non foods have tariffs of 3%, not a deal breaker. But most food stuffs average 22% tariffs under WTO and the EU sells us 3 times as much food as we sell to them.

Not good for EU farmers I would have thought.

gfplux

A No deal has implications for trade, jobs and supermarket shelves but what about all the other things.

If Britain leaves the EU without a deal in March 2019 (just over 500 days to go) then
1) no protection for EU citizens working for the NHS, strawberry pickers etc
2) court action from the EU to recover its money (which will last a lifetime)
3) A hard border between Ireland and N Ireland
4) Chaos at the ports
5) No flights between Britain and EU
5) No X rays in British hospitals (due to Euroatom)
Etc, etc, etc,

Frankly I am sure there are many people morE knowledgeable than I that could prepare a much much longer list.

PS.
Just had an update on Citizens rights from the Home Office (an email circular) and it appears that this is almost a done deal so Britaims don't need to worry their fruit and vegetables will still be harvested by seasonal workers. Thank you Theresa May.
So a "no deal" on leaving might still have a done deal on Citizens rights.

gfplux

This is a copy and paste from the Home Office mass email

Dear Xxxxxxx

The fifth round of the negotiation between the EU and UK concluded yesterday.

We are closer to agreeing all elements of the rights of EU citizens living in the UK and the reciprocal rights of UK citizens living in the EU – but there is more discussion required.

On key issues, such as the broad framework of residence rights for EU citizens and their family members, social security entitlements and reciprocal healthcare, the UK and EU have largely reached agreement.

On remaining areas, both the UK and EU are focussing on providing certainty for citizens as quickly as possible. Discussions this week have narrowed the focus to the key remaining issues for negotiations.

The UK has also provided further information on its settled status scheme to be introduced next year. It will be streamlined, digital and low cost. As we have said previously, you do not need a document now to prove that you are resident in the UK.

For those who already have EU permanent residence documents the process will be very straightforward, with greatly reduced or zero cost to applicants to update their status under the new scheme.

The talks also explored ways to fulfil the Prime Minister’s commitment to implement the Withdrawal Treaty fully into UK law, ensuring consistent interpretation through UK courts being able to take into account CJEU judgements.

We want to reach agreement on all areas as soon as we can, providing certainty for citizens.

The EU Council is meeting next week to discuss whether or not there has been sufficient progress in the current talks to move onto discussion of wider issues. Whatever the EU Council’s decision, safeguarding the status of EU citizens in the UK and UK nationals in the EU will remain a priority for the UK. As the Prime Minister said this week, “we want you to stay”.

Our negotiating position continues to be based on the proposal we outlined in June: safeguarding the position of EU citizens in the UK and UK nationals in the EU, with updates provided as the negotiations progress.

We will write and update you further as soon as there is more to say.

Yours sincerely

Home Office

Theophile

gfplux wrote: »

A No deal has implications for trade, jobs and supermarket shelves but what about all the other things.

If Britain leaves the EU without a deal in March 2019 (just over 500 days to go) then
1) no protection for EU citizens working for the NHS, strawberry pickers etc
2) court action from the EU to recover its money (which will last a lifetime)
3) A hard border between Ireland and N Ireland
4) Chaos at the ports
5) No flights between Britain and EU
5) No X rays in British hospitals (due to Euroatom)
Etc, etc, etc,

Frankly I am sure there are many people morE knowledgeable than I that could prepare a much much longer list.

It doesn't really matter.
Public opinion is starting to turn against brexit.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/oct/13/labour-flags-up-brexit-poll-which-suggests-public-regret-decision

Where public opinion goes, politicians follow.

Fella

ilovehouses wrote: »

Well what's wrong with your own argument? The EU might be better off and no one can prove otherwise.

Potentially they might move towards closer monetary and fiscal union without the UK getting in the way. That would help the Euro function as a 'proper' currency.

I bet if you put your mind to it you could think of a few ideas why the EU might be better off too.

I'm sticking with my guess that no-deal would be bad for all but worse for the UK. I'm hopeful it won't come to that.

I agree it's possible. I think it's extremely unlikely as the UK is a rich country, a net importer & makes large payments to the EU. Furthermore having the UK as a member makes the EU a significantly more attractive proposition to other member (& potential member) countries.

Realistically I'd say the the EU is overwhelmingly likely to be worse off or not much affected. I agree it's a technical possibility they may somehow benefit.

Thrugelmir

Fella wrote: »

Realistically I'd say the the EU is overwhelmingly likely to be worse off or not much affected. I agree it's a technical possibility they may somehow benefit.

Forget the EU. Behind the facade are 27 individual countries. Go several steps lower still. 95% of all Irish mushroom production is exported to the UK. With no market that is going to hit one sector of the economy very hard. As in these rural areas work isn't that easy to find. Macro statements are all very well. The finer detail is going to have all sorts of consequences at local level.