Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

Thrugelmir

ilovehouses wrote: »

Don't know what the Europeans will do when our food (closer to added value/ luxury) goes up by 22% but I can guess.

Due to the CAP are food is already more expensive than it need be. When comparing prices on the open markets. Food won't rise 22%. Majority of milling wheat is imported from the USA and Canada already. Pig farming can be done in the UK rather than Poland. Business can vote with it's feet. Raw material is cheaper to import than finished product.

Herzlos

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Forget the EU. Behind the facade are 27 individual countries. Go several steps lower still. 95% of all Irish mushroom production is exported to the UK. With no market that is going to hit one sector of the economy very hard. As in these rural areas work isn't that easy to find. Macro statements are all very well. The finer detail is going to have all sorts of consequences at local level.

Do Irish mushroom farmers have much sway in the EU?
We know a bad deal will destroy some industries and businesses on both sides, but will they be significant enough to force anyone's hand?

I think it'd take BMW/VAG to demand we get a good deal for anyone to notice, and they've said they won't.

Thrugelmir

Herzlos wrote: »

Do Irish mushroom farmers have much sway in the EU?

Are you an Irish politician seeking re-election? As you may not be attending EU meetings much longer.

National interest will win hands down every time.

Herzlos

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Are you an Irish politician seeking re-election? As you may not be attending EU meetings much longer.

National interest will win hands down every time.

And Irish national park interest is to prioritise mushroom sales over the EU?

That said, we still don't know what trade deal the uk actually wants yet so it's hard to guess how anyone will react

TrickyTree83

Herzlos wrote: »

We can take a pretty educated guess. Something like 45% of our exports end up in the EU. If we lose any of that, which we will under WTO, then we need to replace it from RoW. RoW trade will cost more in general due to the logistics. So we'll need to replace it with slightly more trade to stay where we are.

So for every £1 in trade we lose from the EU, we'd potentially need to gain, say, £1.1 from RoW. We're already free to trade with RoW (and do indeed do so). So if we were able to grow RoW trade that easily we'd already have done so.

The RoW trade is not as straightforward under EU membership as you suggest.

TrickyTree83

gfplux wrote: »

A No deal has implications for trade, jobs and supermarket shelves but what about all the other things.

If Britain leaves the EU without a deal in March 2019 (just over 500 days to go) then
1) no protection for EU citizens working for the NHS, strawberry pickers etc
2) court action from the EU to recover its money (which will last a lifetime)
3) A hard border between Ireland and N Ireland
4) Chaos at the ports
5) No flights between Britain and EU
5) No X rays in British hospitals (due to Euroatom)
Etc, etc, etc,

Frankly I am sure there are many people morE knowledgeable than I that could prepare a much much longer list.

PS.
Just had an update on Citizens rights from the Home Office (an email circular) and it appears that this is almost a done deal so Britaims don't need to worry their fruit and vegetables will still be harvested by seasonal workers. Thank you Theresa May.
So a "no deal" on leaving might still have a done deal on Citizens rights.

My word...

That post is dripping with tin foil hat hyperbole.

It would appear you're not on top of your research as you appear to want us to believe.

Points 4, 5 and... 5 (???) are of particular interest to me :rotfl:

TrickyTree83

ilovehouses wrote: »

It's not that clear. Depends why people are buying Tiguans - are they cheaper? If so the price advantage is illusory - people will buy a more expensive CRV because Tiguans are even more expensive i.e. they're paying more for cars and will therefore buy less of them.



This is an easy one. We'll mainly suck it up as what we buy are closer to 'essentials'.

Don't know what the Europeans will do when our food (closer to added value/ luxury) goes up by 22% but I can guess.

No, it's simpler than even Rinoa's example.

Deloitte have examined the automotive industry. The UK automotive industry would gain as a result of a no deal scenario. Before I read the report I would have said the same as you, that intuitively the UK automotive industry would suffer just as much as the EU's. Apparently that is not the case.

Thrugelmir

Herzlos wrote: »

And Irish national park interest is to prioritise mushroom sales over the EU?

That said, we still don't know what trade deal the uk actually wants yet so it's hard to guess how anyone will react

Broaden your mind. I am citing just one example of many.

One assumes that the UK would like a mutually beneficial trade deal. That maintains the status quo.

PS. The dependence on the UK from Eire shouldn't be underestimated. In terms of exports and imports. From the supply of power to the fulfillment of 80% of internet shopping.

Whereas Latvia etc couldn't care two hoots about a trade deal.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Theophile wrote: »

It doesn't really matter.
Public opinion is starting to turn against brexit.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/oct/13/labour-flags-up-brexit-poll-which-suggests-public-regret-decision

Where public opinion goes, politicians follow.

Indeed it is.



And yes you can be sure our weathervaning politicians will follow shortly.

Herzlos

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Broaden your mind. I am citing just one example of many.

There are certainly many, but for every example you can find of a business at risk from a poorer trading deal with the UK, you'll also find one that'd be at risk from a poorer trading deal with the EU.

At the end of the day, the EU is a market about 10x the size of the UK, and businesses are aware of that.