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Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5
Comments
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This makes interesting reading. It's from the respected Oz professor of economics Bill Mitchell on how the UK is not as reliant upon the EU for trade as many remainers insist. Not that such remainers will pay any attention; they refuse to do so with anything unless it panders to their "the EU is wonderful and will save us all" delusions.Britain has been diversifying its exports and is less reliant on the EU than it was say in the early 1990s. The data also shows that the creation of the Single Market hasn!!!8217;t even boosted intra-EU or intra-Eurozone trade.
Those are from early on; have a read. It's quite enlightening - unless (of course) you're a diehard remainer.The data I have shown here doesn!!!8217;t provide an open and shut case for Brexit. But it does show that the importance of EU membership to Britain!!!8217;s prosperity is probably overstated and that Britain will prosper if its own policy settings are appropriate.
The anti-Brexit crowd are now leaving behind a litany of flawed statements relying on so-called !!!8216;research!!!8217; that is quickly rendered ridiculous by the passing of time !!!8211; that is, the evidence.
Like:
andOfficial national accounts data from the British Office of National Statistics (ONS) shows that by the end of 2017, British GDP was already higher by 3.2 per cent relative to its level at the time of the Brexit vote !!!8211; a far cry from the deep recession we were told to expect.Particularly embarrassing for the professional doomsayers is the data concerning the performance of British industry over the past two years, despite the uncertainty concerning the negotiations with the EU !!!8211; thanks in no small part to the British government!!!8217;s inane conduct.
Poor remainers; read it do & see why your doom-laden predictions are unjustified.
http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=391140 -
It may possibly have made some people poorer but those who invested in the stock markets with companies with overseas earnings did very well out of devaluation. That's everybody with a pension or pension scheme and that's a hell of a lot of people. Compared to the GFC, the referendum effect was trivial at worst.
As for the clown quoted by Arklight who claims his pension was reduced by around 20%, I call him a liar.
Me too. Mine's gone up by a not inconsiderable sum in the past year. :T Do such posters not realize that many of us have pensions arranged and can see the growth?0 -
Me too. Mine's gone up by a not inconsiderable sum in the past year. :T Do such posters not realize that many of us have pensions arranged and can see the growth?
Some appear to be having a 'vicarious' investment experience where they assume a remoaniac half glass full approach to an imaginery portfolio that they assume will lose money.
The last time we saw investment returns like this was after the ERM crisis, and what were the little eu landers doing then?
Mewling and puking about lost opportunities, why we should not upset the EU etc etc etc.
Same culprits, same outcome.
Rationality not emotion that is the Brexit way!0 -
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »That is false.
Average real wages rose by 2% above inflation in each of the two years before the referendum.
Real wages have fallen to 1% below inflation in the year after the referendum, and remain in negative territory today.
Things appear to be changing.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-21/u-k-wages-pick-up-with-fewer-foreign-nationals-in-the-workforce
....and re. sterling, the GBP for the last 6 months is now the best performing currency in the G10. Combine that with inflation coming down, productivity up and the continuance of UK jobs miracle. Brexit is becoming normalised as business adapts to the new normal.“Britain- A friend to all, beholden to none”. 🇬🇧0 -
many of us have pensions arranged and can see the growth?
Growth when measured in a devalued currency...;)
GBP is still down around 15% from the day before the referendum when measured against a trade weighted basket of currencies.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »Growth when measured in a devalued currency...;)
GBP is still down around 15% from the day before the referendum when measured against a trade weighted basket of currencies.
Wrong again, Hamish. It's about half that. You can see the figures here.
https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/bank-of-england-spot/historical-effective-exchange-rates/GBP-history-20180 -
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »Growth when measured in a devalued currency...;)
GBP is still down around 15% from the day before the referendum when measured against a trade weighted basket of currencies.
Actually not so much...
https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/bank-of-england-spot/historical-effective-exchange-rates/GBP-history-2016
Purchase of footsie 24/6/18 at 5500 trade weighted at 81.8387 footsie today at 7200 trade weighted at 80.9389 Friday (but would be better today 16th),
Shares have risen 31% currency down 1% when you include dividend return of 3% that makes a 5% + 31% - 1% return in a trade weighted currency. = 35% retrun.
But you only get this return if you acted rationally and bought against the panicking remoaniacs selling.
That is what makes Brexit all the sweeter, remoaniacs lost money selling too low brexiteers made money because of their lack of mewling and puking and cool rationality.
Brilliant Brexit!0 -
- 1% return in a trade weighted currency
:rotfl:
Meanwhile back in the real world....
According to the ONS:
- Sterling May 16 = 86
- Latest Sterling read = 79
Still down 10% or so since before the referendum.... Which I suppose is marginally better than the 15% it was down until recently but still represents a huge loss in buying power for UK PLC.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
That will be Hamishs real world of imminent Scottish independence and economic Armageddon of course.
Is the only thing our resident doomsayers have left gfpluxs death by a thousand cuts scenario?
You know, the sort of economic Armageddon that comes sometime in a non specified time in the future, dont try and tie them down with a specific year or maybe even a decade though, they dont like that!:)“Britain- A friend to all, beholden to none”. 🇬🇧0 -
This makes interesting reading.
http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=39114
:rotfl::rotfl:Oh goody, a post from a blog.Don't blame me, I voted Remain.0
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