Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

LHW99

They moaned about the quota and now it's gone they're moaning about how the lack of quota means sugar prices have fallen as has demand due to the sugar tax. Just can't keep them happy.

They seemed quite happy in October when the quote went
https://www.britishsugar.co.uk/media/news/2017-10-01-british-beet-sugar-industry-hails-the-upcoming-deregulation-of-the-european-sugar-market-as-great-news-for-britain

buglawton

ilovehouses wrote: »

It's looking as if non-EU countries are punching well above their weight.

The world has changed since 2015. Sterling has declined, the Zloty appreciated and the Polish economy is on the up. Poles are heading home.

Don't be expecting those Bangladeshis to be heading back any time soon. In fact, the latest figures indicate you should expect a few more.

The rate of Polish net migration has declined - they're arriving more slowly - not quite the same as 'going home'.

Rinoa

ilovehouses wrote: »

Do you know the rules? I'm not sure I do but AIUI the rules require contracts to be tendered across the bloc. There's no requirement for the lowest bid to be taken - if a higher bid is accepted then, as a taxpayer, I'd want to hear the good reason why.

French policemen have to chase criminals in French cars and the French taxpayer is overpaying. How you think that's working for them I really don't know.

It keeps the car industry thriving plus the many industries supplying them. The French government realise the long term importance of keeping those industries in business.

The UK government chose to play by the rules and help other EU countries car industries.

buglawton

ilovehouses wrote: »

It's looking as if non-EU countries are punching well above their weight.

The world has changed since 2015. Sterling has declined, the Zloty appreciated and the Polish economy is on the up. Poles are heading home.

Don't be expecting those Bangladeshis to be heading back any time soon. In fact, the latest figures indicate you should expect a few more.

Population of Poland - 37m - accounts for 15% of UK immigration
Population of India, Pakistan, Bangladesh combined - 1600m - account for 33%

Taking their source populations into account, Poland of course punches vastly above it's weight. Which as an EU member I'd expect it to. And it's the leading emigration country to the UK. To be expected with Ukrainians backfilling their cheap labour gap.

wunferall

ilovehouses wrote: »

That's what I meant. Sloppy English.

Not sure if the numbers being made up by Bangladeshis was quite what the average brexiter had in mind though.

The numbers aren't "being made up" though, are they? Unless of course you can provide proof that these really are increasing and "making up" for the decline in Poles, but I won't hold my breath.

You disregard too that your Bangladeshi can't just turn up "on spec" like Poles and any other EU citizen can, hoping for a job cleaning cars or filing nails so that they can claim benefits.

wunferall

ilovehouses wrote: »

Other than a managed decline there is really no point supporting an industry if that means it doesn't have to innovate or compete on cost. This lesson was surely learnt in the '70's.

I prefer that the UK police buy the cars they want at lowest price. If that's a BMW, Astra or a Toyota so be it. Protectionism just encourages inefficiency.

That of course is the very problem that many here and within the EU itself observe about the European Union. At last you begin to see the light.

Rinoa

ilovehouses wrote: »

Protectionism just encourages inefficiency.

VW and Mercedes look a model of efficiency.

cogito

ilovehouses wrote: »

You think that's smart comment but I already knew the EU was imperfect when I voted remain.

Of course I also see the hypocrisy of the 'very problem', recognised by many, as being a reason why we should leave whilst simultaneously being a model we should adopt.

A lot of posters don't have a single problem with protectionism as long as it's the right sort of protectionism. Fair enough but I wish they'd cut the rubbish about the opportunities for increased free trade.

Is there a right sort of protectionism? Trump has China in his sights because they practice protectionism whilst demanding free trade. The EU will be next.

wunferall

ilovehouses wrote: »

To September 2017 net EU migration was 90,000 - the lowest level since 2012.

Meanwhile net non-EU migration was 205,000 - the highest level since 2011.

Given these numbers and the fact that overall net migration was reasonably stable it seems a fair assertion that non-EU migrants are 'making up' the numbers.

Take that breath.



I'm not disregarding this. I'm just noting the inverse relationship - as net EU migration falls non-EU migration rises.

You're deliberately ignoring the relevant parts again, aren't you?
From the ONS:

The number of non-EU citizens leaving the UK has decreased over the last year. This decrease in emigration, along with the increase in immigration, led to the increase in net migration for non-EU citizens.

It should be noted that this latest increase follows a low level of non-EU immigration in the year ending September 2016. Looking at the underlying reasons why non-EU citizens arrived in the UK, this low level was due to a fall in non-EU citizens coming to the UK to study which was not reflected in the most comparable visa data (further details can be found in Section 7). Therefore, any interpretation of the latest increase in non-EU immigration and net migration should be made with caution and the longer-term trends assessed rather than just the year on year change.

There is no "inverse relationship" other than in your imagination according to the ONS themselves. As the saying goes, "lies, damned lies and statistics". Trying to use the statistics to suit your agenda despite ONS advice not to do so only further proves your desperation.



https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/february2018#differing-migration-patterns-seen-for-eu-and-non-eu-citizens

wunferall

ilovehouses wrote: »

You think that's smart comment but I already knew the EU was imperfect when I voted remain.

Of course I also see the hypocrisy of the 'very problem', recognised by many, as being a reason why we should leave whilst simultaneously being a model we should adopt.

A lot of posters don't have a single problem with protectionism as long as it's the right sort of protectionism. Fair enough but I wish they'd cut the rubbish about the opportunities for increased free trade.

The only rubbish is in your assumptions, sadly.
"I already knew the EU was imperfect when I voted remain." And yet you prefer that imperfection to your own country.

"Of course I also see the hypocrisy of the 'very problem', recognised by many, as being a reason why we should leave whilst simultaneously being a model we should adopt."
Get away with you! I'm pretty sure that most Brexiters don't want to adopt the EU model of ever-increasing federalism; of protectionism to the detriment of all others; of being the cause of increasing inequality; of being too cumbersome and unwieldy to make quick decisions as and when necessary; etc. etc. etc.
So no the UK does most certainly NOT want to adopt your beloved "EU" model despite your remonstrations otherwise.

"A lot of posters don't have a single problem with protectionism as long as it's the right sort of protectionism.
"
It's called patriotism. Looking after #1 if you will.
I feel pretty certain that you are not so philanthropic as to donate a large portion of your wealth to those less fortunate.

"Fair enough but I wish they'd cut the rubbish about the opportunities for increased free trade."
You're making this up as you go along, aren't you? Nobody I can see over the past few posts was discussing the opportunities for increased free trade so why did you feel it necessary to? Trying to deny that there are more opportunities once free of the EU's clutches won't work; this forum has been there and done that with the result being ample evidence that indeed the UK DOES have more opportunities once we're out.