Bitcoins

Aegis

LTC2017 wrote: »

Was just browsing and this caught my eye.

As with investments or speculative options buying when everyone else is selling is the key to making good profit. I have 3.5k invested and this is sitting at 25k while we let china do its yearly "Throw its toys out the pram" regarding regulation issues.

The big price increases and drops are all tied to news, adoption and updates to the underlying technology. Simple rule for new investors dont panic sell and keep up-to-date if your into trading highs and lows.

So what should the exit strategy be for new "investors"? At what point can you look at the price and say "yes, this is now fair value", and what measure are you using for said value? Bitcoin has no fundamentals, therefore the only "fair" valuations I've seen so far are pretty much sticking a finger in the wind and guessing based on past performance, which is utterly irrelevant if sentiment changes.

It's just tulip mania, but with something worth even less than tulip bulbs.

Its funny how all these "Experts" and major names come forward during some bad news to call it fraud knowing they will get exposure and then are buying the dip...Then you realise that these same guys calling it a fraud have been charged several 100 million in settlements due to all kinds of financial frauds and deceit. There are only 2 reasons why they publicly voice their negative views - They are either playing the market, or feel threatened by its growing scale and acceptance.

I'm doing neither. I genuinely worry that people who don't know what they are talking about are generally conning other people who don't know what they are talking about into throwing away money on something that wouldn't be worth the paper it was printed on if it was actually printed on paper.

To anyone who is genuinely interested, before buying anything read and learn as much as possible about it and then you will have your answer. Cointelegraph is a great news site which will give you some insight into how much this has been developed and to what extent its already merging with our current financial systems.

The fundamental technology behind it is soo much more than "an internet currency" Many banks and Governments around the world already have blockchain teams which are looking at regulation and ways to safely incorporate this into everyday use.

-There is set supply of coins - No printing more bank notes when we feel like it.

Is there a restriction on creating whole new internet currencies? Clearly not. Five years ago, bitcoin was the only cryptocurrency people spoke about, now there are several more. If whole currencies can be put together out of literally nothing with no financial or economic backing, then how does any cryptocurrency have value? If countries / institutions adopt some sort of cryptocurrency technology, then great, but unless they then peg it against a real currency or an asset then such institutions becoming involved is irrelevant.

-Every Transaction is broadcast on a public ledger which cannot be altered.

Of course, exchanges can be hacked and people can lose everything they have bought. If that happens, there's no insurance in place by the exchanges because they aren't banks and the coins aren't real currency.

-You are in control of Your money so can send where you want and to who you want anywhere in the world for a reasonable fee.

I can already do that with my GBP. The difference is that my GBP is legal tender, so I can go out and settle my debts with it as well as buying what I want/need.

-Much safer for merchants as the buyer cannot issue a charge back.

The corollary to that is that it's much less safe for buyers, as the buyer can't start a chargeback if the merchant rips them off.

-Its unhackable and decentralised (no one can just turn it off)

Nothing's completely unhackable. Even then, as mentioned above people have already lost bitcoin because of the failure or hacking of exchanges, so this argument - clearly one for the safety of the "currency" - misses a major problem area in buying into an emerging technology.

To the bubble guys - I cant post up the images but check the charts on the start of the Dow Jones comparing to the start of Bitcoin, you will see its almost identical.

Even if this is entirely true, which I doubt, what is the relevance?

If you are genuinely interested educate yourselves before asking buying advice from random internet people, as your getting a very one sided opinion. This includes me

ps: This is a volatile market so dont buy and sell with emotions, and as always don't invest what you cant afford to loose.

This is the only area we agree on. Everyone interested in this type of speculation should think very hard about what they decide to throw towards this bubble. It is possible that you might double or triple your money, but it is also possible that this bubble will entirely implode and you could lose everything you invest. This may sound overly dramatic, but it has happened before and will almost certainly happen again. People get enthusiastic about new ideas which have no real fundamentals and go mad pouring money in and seeing the value increase for no fathomable reason. It's only after the bubble bursts that those same people realise how foolish they were to invest in something without good fundamentals.

LTC2017

I would say my exit strategy is cash out at new all time high, pull out original investment and go back in when we dropped 30-50% ready for the next rally. This could be months to years as per past but in no rush as so far we have always gone higher. Thats not to say it could hit the floor and if this did happen i would be sure to drop 1-2k which would be worth 80k+ if we got back to these price levels.

You have to admit, its got a bit more use than a tulip bulb, you say you have full control of your fiat but not everyone does around the world. When an economic disaster occurs or your government create very harsh capital control rules to protect it own currency this is a good tool to open other options. Remember when Greece stole its citizens savings ;( Also there are places in the world where normal people do not have access to banks and payment systems like we do.

You could also pay anything you wanted via crypto using a crypto debit card which is treated as any other visa debit card around the world. Things are moving away from the bitcoin will replace fiat, it should complement it and work alongside it. There is a reason why most major countries are working out regulatory framework to enable the population to use this technology safely and weed out the bad ones.

Your correct about the new coins and ICO's which are popping up left right and center, these are people creating cash grabbing opportunities and taking advantage of regular joes who blindly think this is bitcoin. As with many opportunities to create wealth you will get this, human nature at its worst im afraid.

In regard to hacking, yes exchanges can be the weak link. We already have a few who are fully insured and adhere to full regulation, but there are many which do not and its up to you as a person to ensure the security of your funds. The amount of times banks have been hacked, robbed etc its the same thing in regard to hacking, However you dont leave large cash sums unsecured so its on you as it should be to keep your wealth safe.

I understand your concerns, but if i tell anyone about crypto i say read as much as you can and it is high risk high reward. To be honest i would say do not buy now, wait until the next major panic drop and get in at a good position, then cash out before your greed takes over.

The charts comment i made, was in relation to people calling it a bubble, in the time of the Dow starting people may have also been calling it a bubble. In fact we have been through several bubbles along the way and the big drops/big increases are historic points in time where big news was announced either good or bad. I understand no one can read the future so you cant say its gonna crash to the floor and i can say its going to crazy high valuations, if only crystal balls where real...

If I get a sizeable sum out I'm happy, if not will return to my buy in price few years ago. Im now in a risk free zone. This whole sector was only created in 2011 lets see what the future holds

I understand your skepticism and agree its not for everyone. Just thought would throw it out there personally why i entered this market. As most responses were very short tulip comments. Good luck to all in the future whichever investments you are in.

Aegis

LTC2017 wrote: »

I would say my exit strategy is cash out at new all time high, pull out original investment and go back in when we dropped 30-50% ready for the next rally. This could be months to years as per past but in no rush as so far we have always gone higher. Thats not to say it could hit the floor and if this did happen i would be sure to drop 1-2k which would be worth 80k+ if we got back to these price levels.

1. This isn't an exit strategy. You've essentially said that even if the price plummets you'll treat it as a buying strategy. What I really mean by an exit strategy is: how do you determine when bitcoin has reached its correct/fair value, and therefore exit it as an investment because you don't think it can go higher?

2. The very fact that you comment that bitcoin regularly falls 30-50% from its peak tells you it's not a stable currency by any stretch of the imagination.

3. "As so far we have always gone higher" is the very embodiment of thinking that led to the warning "past performance is no guarantee of future performance" being plastered all over every legitimate investment in the UK.

You have to admit, its got a bit more use than a tulip bulb

It's actually more useless than a tulip bulb. At least with a tulip bulb you can grow a pretty flower. Bitcoin is utterly useless except for the fact that people have arbitrarily decided to give it value despite it having no backing from any large financials or economies.

, you say you have full control of your fiat but not everyone does around the world.

Here's one of the points where I have major problems with bitcoin proponents. You made the point that with bitcoin you have full control of your currency as though it was a benefit that people in the UK don't have. In reality, in the UK if your money is in a bank or building society, you have complete control of your currency. Why therefore use this as a plus point for investing on a UK forum, except to try to pump up the price a little bit by essentially attacking an actual currency?

When an economic disaster occurs or your government create very harsh capital control rules to protect it own currency this is a good tool to open other options.

Unless of course people start to value hard assets rather than computer code, in which case bitcoin could utterly crash.

For people this worried about economic disaster, gold or actual foreign currency backed by another sovereign nation would be far better than something that does literally nothing but propagate itself and has no recognition as currency. It's a pointless luxury item, probably worthless in real economic turmoil.

Remember when Greece stole its citizens savings ;( Also there are places in the world where normal people do not have access to banks and payment systems like we do.

See above. This is just scaremongering and does absolutely nothing to lend credence to bitcoin as an investment.

You could also pay anything you wanted via crypto using a crypto debit card which is treated as any other visa debit card around the world. Things are moving away from the bitcoin will replace fiat, it should complement it and work alongside it. There is a reason why most major countries are working out regulatory framework to enable the population to use this technology safely and weed out the bad ones.

A debit card linked to a highly volatile commodity would be awful. Why would anyone use that?

Your correct about the new coins and ICO's which are popping up left right and center, these are people creating cash grabbing opportunities and taking advantage of regular joes who blindly think this is bitcoin. As with many opportunities to create wealth you will get this, human nature at its worst im afraid.

Okay, so you dismiss all the competitors immediately. Why does the same logic not apply to bitcoin as well? What makes a bitcoin more valuable than, say, a unit of etherium? The answer is of course "nothing" (or "wishful thinking", perhaps).

In regard to hacking, yes exchanges can be the weak link. We already have a few who are fully insured and adhere to full regulation, but there are many which do not and its up to you as a person to ensure the security of your funds. The amount of times banks have been hacked, robbed etc its the same thing in regard to hacking, However you dont leave large cash sums unsecured so its on you as it should be to keep your wealth safe.

I understand your concerns, but if i tell anyone about crypto i say read as much as you can and it is high risk high reward. To be honest i would say do not buy now, wait until the next major panic drop and get in at a good position, then cash out before your greed takes over.

And how do you work out when the right value has been reached? In other words, if bitcoin goes up another 10%, is that the right value for bitcoin? What it it then falls 50%, is that the right value? How do you work out what a fair value for a bitcoin is to be able to work out whether you are being greedy or clever?

The charts comment i made, was in relation to people calling it a bubble, in the time of the Dow starting people may have also been calling it a bubble. In fact we have been through several bubbles along the way and the big drops/big increases are historic points in time where big news was announced either good or bad. I understand no one can read the future so you cant say its gonna crash to the floor and i can say its going to crazy high valuations, if only crystal balls where real...

The similarity of charts is a red herring. The Dow represented a group of companies, i.e. industry. Buying the Dow meant buying a variety of different economic contributors, entitling the holder to a share of any declared dividends and to increases in value as a result of making the company more profitable. You can ascribe fair value to the Dow based on a number of different metrics, for example the p/e ratio. The Dow is totally different to bitcoin.

If I get a sizeable sum out I'm happy, if not will return to my buy in price few years ago. Im now in a risk free zone. This whole sector was only created in 2011 lets see what the future holds

I understand your skepticism and agree its not for everyone. Just thought would throw it out there personally why i entered this market. As most responses were very short tulip comments. Good luck to all in the future whichever investments you are in.

My view is that it's basically a giant Ponzi scheme. As with all Ponzi schemes, early adopters will do okay for themselves, but it relies on the latecomers conning more and more people into believing this is a good idea despite having no fundamental value to it whatsoever.

Bitcoin fails as a currency because it is far too unstable, and it fails as an investment because there's no underlying value whatsoever.

LTC2017

Sorry didn't want to create a flame war on here. I respect some of your views

Will pop back in the future see how we faired.

Katiecor

Bitcoin is more valuable than gold right now, so its only right to invest in it as the prices are just going to keep skyrocketing.

Eco_Miser

Katiecor wrote: »

Bitcoin is more valuable than gold right now,

gold is $40,951.45 per kg right now, bitcoin $4,318.72 each, so gold looks to be nearly 10 times as valuable.

Actually they're not comparable, as you can't have a kg of bitcoin, nor an each of gold.

grey_gym_sock

Eco_Miser wrote: »

gold is $40,951.45 per kg right now, bitcoin $4,318.72 each, so gold looks to be nearly 10 times as valuable.

Actually they're not comparable, as you can't have a kg of bitcoin, nor an each of gold.

you can compare the values of the total amounts of gold and bitcoin currently held (i.e. already mined, in both cases).

a quick web search says there are at least c. 170,000 tonnes (though some estimates are substantially higher) of gold already mined. that equals 170,000,000 kg. which makes the total value of gold being held by somebody c. $7,000bn.

c. 17,000,000 bitcoins have been mined so far. making the current value of bitcoins being held by somebody c. $70bn.

so all the gold out there is worth about 100 times all the bitcoins out there.

(my current allocations are: 0% gold, 0% bitcoins.)

Aegis

Katiecor wrote: »

Bitcoin is more valuable than gold right now, so its only right to invest in it as the prices are just going to keep skyrocketing.

Just to change things up a little, let's look at this quote with a minor amendment:

Some_Dutch_guy_in_1636 wrote:

Tulip Bulbs are more valuable than gold right now, so its only right to invest in them as the prices are just going to keep skyrocketing.

Spot the difference.

Malthusian

Yeah but tulip bulbs are independent of the frictional reserve Zionist banking conspiracy, and Viceroys and Semper Augustuses are really hard to grow, just as Bitcoins are really hard to mine, which makes them inherently valuable.

People who claim that tulips could fall in value just lack understanding of horticulturalism.

Also the "blockstem" where you can see not only who owns the tulip but who used to own the tulip by writing all their names along the tulip's nodes is going to revolutionise the payment system. Somehow.

Malthusian

Katiecor wrote: »

Bitcoin is more valuable than gold right now, so its only right to invest in it as the prices are just going to keep skyrocketing.

I would have thought you'd have had enough of get-rich-quick schemes after you lost all that money with binary options.