Naive Question - 5-10% ?

bigadaj

JohnRo wrote: »

What mean?

Yields are a function of capital value, UK rents in aggregate are not reducing.

It's a supply and demand equation, without the supply side making significant inroads on meeting demand little is going to change. When houses are twenty times average earnings it will simply force even more people into the rent trap, be it sole or HMO, or to live in with parents who lack the means to help their struggling offspring get out and on to the 'ladder'.

House purchases will continue to be unaffordable for what now seems a well established trend for the foreseeable future, the number of potential buyers and their average age ever increasing, baring Zimbabwe style 'land reforms'

Dismantling the welfare state might cut the tax funded bonanza handed to the 'industry' but will simply spawn even more crime, homelessness and squatting.

I hope there is a significant drop in house (land) prices but just don't see it happening any time soon if ever, at least not in a structured, long term way, unless an effective land value tax solution is found.

Fair enough we'll agree to differ. You seem to imply that affordability, in both rental and purchase of property isn't an issue, I'm saying it is.

A consequence of lack of affordability and lack of supply may well be homelessness, and maybe squatting and crime at the periphery, but that's not going to get blood out of a stone. Rents or,mortgage payments can't increase indefinitely, at least not when wages aren't.

We're already seeing significant drops in house prices in London, this will just happen to a lesser extent elsewhere. Brexit associates issues will also reduce demand, from the weakness of sterling to the perception that immigrants aren't welcome.

My point is that this trend can't continue indefinitely.

JohnRo

London is an exception, it's a global financial capital and money laundering centre and the property market there has been at the front and centre of much of it for many years.

As much as London's been responsible for disproportionate lifting of UK averages it's also similarly responsible for any declines but the reasons that apply there are not typically the same reasons that apply elsewhere in provincial UK.

I wonder if there's been any substantial qualitative study done on what accommodation rent is actually purchasing over time, a tough ask I suppose, like trying to clearly identify and quantify shrinkflation, bulking and dilution in foodstuffs.

The massive rises in BTL tax dodging HMOs are a sign of things to come imo, much lower 'quality' of accommodation at a slightly reduced rent and highly elevated yield, that's probably an aspect of the shifting rental market slipping under most people's radar but is something set to increase and has a heck of a lot of mileage left to run.

Qubit

JohnRo wrote: »

That or forced into renting from those who can afford them. Which is what's now increasingly happening.

That's been happening for at least the last 20 years sadly.