chinese whispers or possible bubble

andrewf75

economic wrote: »

this sounds nothing more then just personal opinion based on no evidence.

commonsense is unfortunately all to common and usually wrong.

given that I haven't predicted anything specific, just pointed out some worrying things about our current situation I'm not sure how it is wrong to state some risks.

economic

andrewf75 wrote: »

given that I haven't predicted anything specific, just pointed out some worrying things about our current situation I'm not sure how it is wrong to state some risks.

you clearly stated uk is facing serious risks and uk property prices are unsustaintable. sounds pretty specific to me. either these statements are based on some evidence you have or they are just your opinion and therefore your comments are a waste of time and should be ignored.

andrewf75

economic wrote: »

you clearly stated uk is facing serious risks and uk property prices are unsustaintable. sounds pretty specific to me. either these statements are based on some evidence you have or they are just your opinion and therefore your comments are a waste of time and should be ignored.

not really, they are completely in line with what anyone would say - house prices have never been more out of line with wages, is that not correct? Brexit poses risks to the UK economy. You're not going to dispute that surely? I fail to see what I have said that is remotely controversial. If I google "uk house prices unsustainable" it seems to be quite a mainstream view. I'm not saying a collapse is imminent, just saying the risks are there!

Yes if you worship ever rising house prices then you should probably ignore any opinion that goes against that. I think I understand why most people avoid this section of the forum!

michaels

Really - most data suggests that mortgage payments as a percentage of income even for first time buyers are at about the historical average and well below the only times we saw falling house price sin the late 80s and 2008.

We also have the population increasing more quickly than the housing stock.

I would prefer that we did not artificially restrict house building (supply) and thus house prices were more closely related to build costs but that ain't gonna happen.

Filo25

Certainly more headwinds for property at present than there have been for a while and I wouldn't be surprised to see some kind of correction, but there's a big jump in logic from seeing some kind of correction to seeing a monumental 10 year crash in property values.....

Low interest rates are likely to remain extremely supportive of property prices for the forseeable future.

andrewf75

michaels wrote: »

Really - most data suggests that mortgage payments as a percentage of income even for first time buyers are at about the historical average and well below the only times we saw falling house price sin the late 80s and 2008.

but is that not due to historically low interest rates, which have only been kept at this level precisely because so many people would be in trouble if they rose?

michaels

andrewf75 wrote: »

but is that not due to historically low interest rates, which have only been kept at this level precisely because so many people would be in trouble if they rose?

The answer is in your question.

Filo25

andrewf75 wrote: »

but is that not due to historically low interest rates, which have only been kept at this level precisely because so many people would be in trouble if they rose?

Which sounds like a pretty good reason why they aren't going to rise significantly for the forseeable future.

We aren't even likely to see any kind of tightening until 2018/2019 and I would be amazed if that tightening wasn't extremely gradual.

Realistically a genuine Housing market crash would see rates back to rock bottom again as the housing market plays such a big part in the UK economy.

economic

andrewf75 wrote: »

not really, they are completely in line with what anyone would say - house prices have never been more out of line with wages, is that not correct? Brexit poses risks to the UK economy. You're not going to dispute that surely? I fail to see what I have said that is remotely controversial. If I google "uk house prices unsustainable" it seems to be quite a mainstream view. I'm not saying a collapse is imminent, just saying the risks are there!

Yes if you worship ever rising house prices then you should probably ignore any opinion that goes against that. I think I understand why most people avoid this section of the forum!

doesnt mean house prices are unsustainable.

brexit of course has risks, just like risks of a superbug or a major terrorist attack but where is the evidence that brexit is a serious risk? has anyone mentioned about the risks about staying in the EU?

if you google for the mainstream view then i think thats your problem.

no i do not care about where house prices go. i just care for the truth.

andrewf75

economic wrote: »

where is the evidence that brexit is a serious risk? has anyone mentioned about the risks about staying in the EU?

the evidence is everywhere unless you listen to those blinded by ideology
The risk of the status quo is never going to be as great as a dramatic change from the status quo. I'm not discounting the possibility that Brexit will be a success, but it is obviously a risk. As for the risks of staying in the EU, anything that happens there will have a huge influence on us after brexit anyway.
Anyway, I'll leave it there. I just made a passing comment. I don't really give a monkeys about house prices.