Brexit, the economy and house prices (Part 3)

mayonnaise

More good news from the Eurozone.

LONDON — The exodus has begun.

Irish authorities have clinched deals with more than a dozen London-based banks to move part of their operations to Dublin in preparation for Brexit

http://uk.businessinsider.com/12-city-banks-relocating-to-dublin-after-brexit-2017-6

A_Medium_Size_Jock

More not-so-good news from the Eurozone:

German jobless total unexpectedly rises in June

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-germany-unemployment-idUKKBN19L0WC?il=0

The French government is to freeze public-sector pay and take other "difficult decisions" as part of an austerity drive to reach its EU public deficit target, ministers announced after a specially commissioned audit of public spending called for "unprecedented" cuts in public spending.

http://en.rfi.fr/economy/20170630-france-face-new-austerity-drive-after-audit-shows-state-overspend

As Migration Surges, Italy Weighs Barring Some Rescue Boats

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/29/world/europe/italy-migrants.html

System

Eurozone Confidence Hits Post-Crisis High

https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/TDJNDN_201706292102/eurozone-confidence-hits-postcrisis-high.html

Eurozone businesses and consumers became more optimistic in June about their prospects than at any time since before the global financial crisis, reflecting a pickup in economic growth and the rejection by voters of parties hostile to the European Union in recent elections.

Always good news when your customers are feeling optimistic.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

ilovehouses wrote: »

Eurozone Confidence Hits Post-Crisis High

https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/TDJNDN_201706292102/eurozone-confidence-hits-postcrisis-high.html



Always good news when your customers are feeling optimistic.

Wait until they learn how much extra they will all be paying once the UK leaves and see if the optimism remains.
56% are optimistic according to their survey of 28,000 people across the Eurozone, population above 338 million in 2014.
And with upcoming German elections, Austrian elections, Italian elections ........



Oh and BTW, UK consumer confidence is at about the same level according to the latest from YouGov - and this despite the UK's figure being the lowest since the Brexit vote!
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/06/26/consumer-confidence-slumps-wake-hung-parliament/
105.2, where above 100 = a positive (i.e.confident) score.

mayonnaise

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Wait until they learn how much extra they will all be paying once the UK leaves and see if the optimism remains.

8 billion net/450 million
That's 18 quid each on average.
Ouch...that's gonna hurt.

System

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Wait until they learn how much extra they will all be paying once the UK leaves and see if the optimism remains.
56% are optimistic according to their survey of 28,000 people across the Eurozone, population above 338 million in 2014.
And with upcoming German elections, Austrian elections, Italian elections ........

Wait until we learn how much it'll cost us to duplicate some of the mechanisms we previously shared costs with 27 other nations

Not that I think either the EU or the UK are daft enough to give up the chance to share costs where possible. No point throwing money away.

Keep up the good work with your European election watch. Looking forward to hearing all about Austrian Big Brother.

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Oh and BTW, UK consumer confidence is at about the same level according to the latest from YouGov - and this despite the UK's figure being the lowest since the Brexit vote!
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/06/26/consumer-confidence-slumps-wake-hung-parliament/
105.2, where above 100 = a positive (i.e.confident) score.

Yes UK confidence levels falling and European levels rising. Well spotted. [insert knowing winking smiley here]

cogito

mayonnaise wrote: »

8 billion net/450 million
That's 18 quid each on average.
Ouch...that's gonna hurt.

Gunther Oettinger disagrees with you.

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/commissioners/2014-2019/oettinger/blog/what-your-europe-worth_en

€10bn minimum and could be twice as much.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

cogito wrote: »

€10bn minimum and could be twice as much.

Which within the context of EU GDP is just a rounding error.

Britain's net membership fee is under 1% of UK GDP, it's around 0.01% of EU GDP, an amount that tiny will be found from somewhere regardless of any politician's histrionics in the meantime.

cogito

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Which within the context of EU GDP is just a rounding error.

Britain's net membership fee is under 1% of UK GDP, it's around 0.01% of EU GDP, an amount that tiny will be found from somewhere regardless of any politician's histrionics in the meantime.

Seriously? The EU budget is about €145bn and they will lose at least €10 bn of that when the UK leaves, not forgetting the UK's contribution of VAT receipts and that the UK and other countries would lose their rebates in 2020. % of GDP is irrelevant - it's like trying to compare turnover and profit.

The EU are already in disarray as net contributors are saying they won't pay more and net recipients are saying they won't accept less which is why the EU are so desperate for our money.

Then they have to cough up for the EU army, you know, the thing we were told was a fabrication dreamed up by the tabloids.

So how are they going to fill the gap left by the UK's departure? Well, one of the things back on the table is the Financial Transaction Tax which was such a huge success when the Swedes tried it and which would be a wonderful gift from the EU to the City of London.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

cogito wrote: »

Seriously? The EU budget is about €145bn and they will lose at least €10 bn of that when the UK leaves

Which is still an incredibly tiny amount of money. A tenth of a percent of EU GDP. The money will be found....

After all our politicians found a spare £1.5bn under the mattress just to buy a measly 10 votes from the DUP for two years. :rotfl: