Brexit, the economy and house prices (Part 3)

Conrad

GreatApe wrote: »

Why mess with and change a system that has given all those people all that wealth and opportunity?

Why build a house, what I need is a door for my cave.

mayonnaise

ilovehouses wrote: »

It's almost as if those near 4 million people in the UK who voted UKIP in 2015 have been airbrushed from history.

Good article in the Indy touching on this.

British people are obsessed with the idea that Nazis might return to Germany – maybe they should look closer to home

Yet in addition to the more studious commentary, it is possible to detect a certain sense of glee here in the UK at Germany’s swing to the right.

Yes, I have detected that same sense of glee from some of the most prolific posters on this thread. Ahem.

Seeing hard-right nationalism reawakening in Germany provokes in those who are so minded a memory (whether real or inherited) of a time when Britain was the world’s protector against the threat of Nazi aggression. For a second or two it becomes possible to put to one side the fact that the UK’s economy is facing challenging times while Germany’s is in rude health, and instead presume once again the moral high ground we took in 1939 and have sought to hold over the Germans ever since.

The irony in this attitude should be painfully obvious: Germany, despite the recent rise of the AfD, has grown to be a European powerhouse in the last 70 years precisely by moving on from a difficult past; Britain, meanwhile, has frequently misstepped because we cannot bear to be parted from a glorious history that has long gone.

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/german-elections-2017-far-right-afd-nazis-adolf-hitler-uk-racist-fascist-angela-merkel-refugee-a7966246.html

A_Medium_Size_Jock

ilovehouses wrote: »

A few posts about this. What do you think the effect will be on brexit, the economy or house prices?

Already answered earlier in the thread if you were really interested enough to look.


*Hint*
The Euro and exchange rates.

vivatifosi

Sky News is running an interesting piece on the impact of London as the pre-eminent global gold market. They state that if you show UK trade including gold, then the trade with the EU is 46%, compared to RoW at 54%. However if gold is stripped out, then the figure is 50%/50%.

http://news.sky.com/story/revealed-how-gold-takes-the-shine-off-britains-trade-figures-11057545

This is part of Sky's (new?) Brexit Forensics series.

System

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Already answered earlier in the thread if you were really interested enough to look.


*Hint*
The Euro and exchange rates.

Using the same reasoning pretty much everything in discussion time would be on-topic. What's happening in Spain is fascinating but let's not let another thread disappear because people can't stay on topic.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

vivatifosi wrote: »

Sky News is running an interesting piece on the impact of London as the pre-eminent global gold market. They state that if you show UK trade including gold, then the trade with the EU is 46%, compared to RoW at 54%. However if gold is stripped out, then the figure is 50%/50%.

http://news.sky.com/story/revealed-how-gold-takes-the-shine-off-britains-trade-figures-11057545

This is part of Sky's (new?) Brexit Forensics series.

Saw that, quite interesting.

They also noted most of the reported spike in 'exports' since the end of last year is an illusion - it was actually just clients moving their Gold out of storage in London to places like Switzerland and China.

CKhalvashi

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Saw that, quite interesting.

They also noted most of the reported spike in 'exports' since the end of last year is an illusion - it was actually just clients moving their Gold out of storage in London to places like Switzerland and China.

Not arguing with you on the point, but apart from the HMRC angle, would that actually count as an export? It's surely no different to (for ex) me moving shares in a UK company from my name personally (as a UK resident) to an international company (which I haven't yet done), which would be purely a movement of capital.

Gold does have a defined value though and would make a direct movement of goods, unlike a share certificate, which may cloud the situation a little.

Conrad

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

They also noted most of the reported spike in 'exports' since the end of last year is an illusion

https://www.ft.com/content/e7aed692-9180-11e7-bdfa-eda243196c2c


Britain’s manufacturers continue to defy official statistics, with the number of companies reporting booming output, orders and exports returning to historic highs

For the first time in two years, the balance of companies planning to increase investment was positive across all UK regions.

The number of groups hiring new employees hit a three-year high, rising for the fourth consecutive quarter, and “confirming that the recovery in manufacturing is firmly on track”,

This has helped to fuel a strong jump in exports across the board. Some 33 per cent more companies reported increased sales abroad than recorded stagnant or falling orders overseas for the third quarter.

Exports were helped by the surprisingly strong economic rebound in the eurozone.


ME >> Of course this is the FT so it concludes with the ubiquitous gloomy forecast (Remainers always have forecasts whereas Brexiteers debunk them when actual evidence comes is - such as any number of doomers predictions on retail, always being then proven wrong by events).

Conrad

Also Hamish - the Rotterdam effect - a goodly portion of supposed exports to EU merely transit through on way to the globe.

System

Conrad wrote: »

Also Hamish - the Rotterdam effect - a goodly portion of supposed exports to EU merely transit through on way to the globe.

As the methodology for measuring trade is standardised it's not something we need to overly worry about as, even if it's a 'thing', it will probably be a constant. So in the last data release which I think showed increased EU exports and reduced RoW exports we can be relatively confident that means what it says on the tin.