Brexit, the economy and house prices (Part 3)

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

buglawton wrote: »

Pity the Reuters article is so short on detail. But let's just assume it means every cross border sale will need a declaration costing say £20 to £45 just for the clerical processing. That would make direct trading by small companies to consumers across an EU-to-non-EU border totally unviable wouldn't it? And yet exactly that kind of trading goes on every day.

Short on detail.
Mmmm.

Herzlos wrote: »

I don't think customs declarations can cost as much as that though I can see it increasing with larger and more expensive orders. I've bought stuff from Japan where the customs form is a tick box and description, costing maybe £1. But then I've imported stuff from the US with pages of crap.

So I don't think customs will hurt foreign ebay sales, but it's likely going to suck for anyone inporting/exporting components

I suspect direct small B2C or C2C online sales are not being included in the estimates as the 180K traders figure is far too small to include the millions of people and companies that buy and sell on ebay and the like.

So the relatively small figure of 180,000 businesses must surely be for larger companies trading in more complex shipments than a single Xmas decoration bought off ebay from a small seller - and logically they'll need to fill in more complicated customs declarations for shipments like containers, or boxes of parts, or vehicles, or a truck full of food, or similar, than would be the case for a simple one pager for a package on ebay.

And then the additional costs to business of delays in transit, inspections, longer waiting times at entry checkpoints for drivers, etc.

£20 to £45 average per shipment in customs processing costs for these businesses is probably about right.

And of course then there are the additional costs to government for inspection of millions of shipments a year, processing costs, additional infrastructure at ports, a new computer system for tax and customs, etc, etc, etc.

The head of HMRC just last week put the costs of the IT project alone at just under a Billion pounds and a 7 year implementation schedule before it would be fully ready.

Like it or not it seems inevitable that if we leave the customs union and single market we will be adding significant levels of complexity and cost to trading with our biggest trade partner.

It's fair enough for people to argue this is worthwhile - but it's probably not particularly helpful to try and deny it or downplay it's importance - when it so clearly is going to be hugely disruptive and expensive for at least the medium term...

Herzlos

Conrad wrote: »

I think the Boris intervention is all part of he game we're playing. It sends the message to the EU that if Mrs May doesn't get the right deal, we could end up with someone like Boris in number ten which the EU would probably not want.

I know some Tories say they are fuming, but I do think this is all part of a classic British assault tactic.

Arkams razor would imply that it's not a game and they are just incompetent.

It also assumes that the eu (a) thinks Johnson has a chance of being PM, when no one in the UK does and (b) cares. Even with Johnson at the helm, the eu has principles to stick to and will be around far longer than the next PM.

Hopefully May attending means things will be taken seriously at home and in Europe, but you're deluded to think this chaos is some cunningly orchastrated plan when the Tories can barely agree on anything internally.

Herzlos

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

*Warning*
Opinion piece ahead.


For those who maintain their determination of a "soft Brexit", here is an explanation of why that won't happen:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/09/16/biggest-problem-soft-brexit-not-attainable/

So why are we asking to remain in both? And why did the Leave campaign assure us that we would, if it's not brexit?

Do we know anyone beyond some Tory frothers want this hard brexit?

buglawton

Fair enough. Yet running an import business China wholesale to UK retail in the past, I found the WTO grade customs paperwork pretty seamless and not a real burden. So the scaremongers may be saying it's going to cost a lot more than before to transact between UK and EU. That'll depend on how efficient and frictionless a system we jointly agree on.

If the EU continues with its hardball rhetoric of 'teaching the UK a lesson', that's a direct quote, then it will put the EU at a distinct trading disadvantage compared to now. If the EU wants to impose more bureaucratic procedures than the UK has with the rest of the world, it'll be at an actual competitive disadvantage.

Interesting times!

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Herzlos wrote: »

So why are we asking to remain in both? And why did the Leave campaign assure us that we would, if it's not brexit?

Do we know anyone beyond some Tory frothers want this hard brexit?

Show us where "are we asking to remain in both" because all I see so far is media suggestions.
Do you not understand the difference between wanting access to and remaining in?
Do other countries outside the EU have to accept FoM when trading?
Do we know anyone beyond some disillusioned pro-EU remainers that still believes there is "hard" or "soft", not just "leave" or "stay"?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

buglawton wrote: »

Fair enough. Yet running an import business China wholesale to UK retail in the past, I found the WTO grade customs paperwork pretty seamless and not a real burden.

I used to import mixed content containers from all over the world into the middle east - I can't think of a single occasion where clearing a mixed container from outside the GCC took less than a half a day of labour for the paperwork and inspections - but containers or trucks from inside the GCC zone were instantly passed through. So I have first hand experience of dealing with differential customs regimes and I reckon it's not going to be as easy as some people make out.

Now I agree that if we invest enough money and build enough new infrastructure, and if our continental neighbours do the same, the ongoing costs and delays might come down - but it's pretty logical that a country outside the customs union will always have to deal with more friction and costs for imports and exports to the EU than a country inside the customs union.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

buglawton wrote: »

If the EU continues with its hardball rhetoric of 'teaching the UK a lesson', that's a direct quote,

No it isn't a direct quote.

That's what some of the UK press reported however none have provided a transcript to back it up - and a BBC journalist who was actually there phrased it somewhat differently....

He said that any adverse impact on the UK is not a punishment in itself but a logical consequence of decisions made by the British voters and subsequently by the British government, and he intends to educate people about that.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-41141650

Now that is entirely true and sensible - it's quite clear that many people have no idea of the intricacies of the single market and customs union - and people will need to be educated as to what is changing and why.

Backbiter

buglawton wrote: »

Fair enough. Yet running an import business China wholesale to UK retail in the past, I found the WTO grade customs paperwork pretty seamless and not a real burden. So the scaremongers may be saying it's going to cost a lot more than before to transact between UK and EU. That'll depend on how efficient and frictionless a system we jointly agree on.

If the EU continues with its hardball rhetoric of 'teaching the UK a lesson', that's a direct quote, then it will put the EU at a distinct trading disadvantage compared to now. If the EU wants to impose more bureaucratic procedures than the UK has with the rest of the world, it'll be at an actual competitive disadvantage.

Interesting times!

The direct quote was

https://fr.sputniknews.com/presse/201707211032321474-brexit-commission-europeenne/
«J’apprendrai aux Britanniques le prix de la sortie du march! unique»

which means he will teach the British the price of leaving the single market.

'Teaching someone a lesson' (which was probably used by strands of the UK media to deliberately exaggerate and twist his words, so I'm not accusing you personally of doing that) implies treating them in a manner that implies revenge or punishment, whereas the context of his remarks was that he wants the British to realise that leaving will be an expensive process.
The Leave campaign made great play of the supposed savings of £350m a week, but made no mention of either the divorce bill (which could be in the tens of billions, but no one knows at the stage of the process) or the costs of trading raised in the Reuters article I posted above.
Barnier wants the British (public and politicians alike) to get their heads around these costs, because the Leave campaigners did not lay them out, or are in denial ("Go whistle"), or just claim 'Project Fear' when they are brought up.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Backbiter wrote: »

Barnier wants the British (public and politicians alike) to get their heads around these costs, because the Leave campaigners did not lay them out, or are in denial ("Go whistle"), or just claim 'Project Fear' when they are brought up.

Quite.

Project Fantasyland is still merrily engaged in panglossian nonsense about having cake and eating it - but the fact is there will be material costs to leaving the EU single market and customs union - and these costs over the medium to long term may just be quite expensive, or they may be as expensive or even more expensive than staying in.

But that there will be serious costs should be obvious to everyone by now.

And denial of this point serves nobody except those with an ideological agenda to get the hardest Brexit possible and damn the consequences.

kabayiri

ilovehouses wrote: »

In most clubs where there's a shared interest of some kind you'll always find they'll tend to work on an 80:20 basis. 20% of the people do 80% of the work - organising trips, training, meetings, competitions etc.
...

No. No they don't.

Maybe you are confusing 'club' with 'prison'?

When Poland and the other EU countries start making net contributions on a regular and substantial basis, you can be darn sure they will be demanding more out of the EU in return.

We are too stupid and too compliant to belong to this club. Time to focus on our interests for a change.