Where's Your Crash?

pickles110564

I can't wait bring it on and buy loads at the bottem and increase you BTL stock, everyones a winner:T

slipthru

CB1979 wrote: »

correct - so it's more likely now, but no more definite though

but with (some) people expecting IR's to start coming down & NR being sorted out, there's only the little problem of the credit crunch, which no doubt the pm will sort out.

oh and with Gordon Brown, bottling it i just can't see him funking up before he decides to call an election, so hopefully he'll keep it going for another year or so

Aren't the banks tightening up on thier irresponsible lending to?

Which lets face it has caused the boom as you no longer have to save to buy.

CB1979_2

again slipthru - absolutely correct.

to be honest I think it all boils down to what the PM/BOE wants, they're the real ones in control of all this and i just can't see him messing it up with the uncertainty that he won't get re-elected.

MORPH3US

CB1979 wrote: »

in fairness though, people have been saying this for YEARS, so i'm sure a similar thread would no doubt have been posted last year and the year before and the year before that

At last a sensible post!!:T:T

globalds

You don't neccesarilly have to have a price crash for a correction to take place .
The correction could be inflation lead .The way it looks like the US economy may head .I wil admit the pound looks stronger than the dollar.
Currency globally is due for a reshuffle ...were all just waiting on China to reposition itself.

Maybe a better investment than propety would be the Euro ?

macaque_2

globalds wrote: »

You don't neccesarilly have to have a price crash for a correction to take place .
The correction could be inflation lead .The way it looks like the US economy may head .I wil admit the pound looks stronger than the dollar.
Currency globally is due for a reshuffle ...were all just waiting on China to reposition itself.

Maybe a better investment than propety would be the Euro ?

Message from planet earth:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/10/07/cmhouse07.xml

The property market has ground to a halt in some areas and many sellers are having to slash prices by 20 per cent to drum up interest in their homes, a survey of estate agents conducted by The Sunday Telegraph reveals.

Generali

macaque wrote: »

Causes of crashes
Rising unemployment
Tightening of credit
House prices too high
Change in sentiment
Higher taxes
Falling disposable incomes

As a person with an interest in bubbles and subsequant crashes, I disagree.

The main cause of bubbles bursting is that they just do IMO. It just ends up that the asset concerned is waaay too expensive and just can't rise any more.

That's what happened in Japan when the stock market and housing bubbles burst in the late 80s/early 90s. That's what happened in Florida in 1925. That's what happened to the UK stock market in 1987. That's what happened to dot com stocks in 2001. That's what seems to be happening in the USA, Ireland, France and Spain right now.

People treat asset price bubbles as economic phenomena. I think that this is wrong, actually they're more closely connected with the psycology of groups than with economics (although economics is good at describing bubbles).

Turnbull2000

macaque wrote: »

Message from planet earth:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/10/07/cmhouse07.xml

Supply-and-what-now? :rotfl:

Some of these boards on my street have been up for many months. Nothing is shifting. I get the impression that BTL investors and credit have dried up, and the traditional market bottom feeders i.e. first-time-buyers, were priced out many moons ago.

In other words, there's nobody left to buy.

m00m00

the primary cause of a bubble popping is a shift in sentiment.

anyone care to argue that the sentiment towards property hasn't changed in the past three months ?

Generali

m00m00 wrote: »

the primary cause of a bubble popping is a shift in sentiment.

That's my thinking, pretty much.

People talk about supply and demand holding up house prices. That's because they don't understand what supply and demand are. People will pay more to buy a house if they think it'll be worth even more than that in future. That's demand increasing.

If they think that prices will fall in future, they'll want to pay less. That's demand falling. In the latter situation, supply will fall too (as you'd expect from classical economics and common sense). However, they will always be forced sellers - e.g. developers and the reposessed.

anyone care to argue that the sentiment towards property hasn't changed in the past three months ?[/quote]