60% return in 12 months - can it continue.

dividendhero

sevenhills wrote: »

I find it interesting though, perhaps I should try to work out my gains/losses? But since shares are higher now than 20 years ago

Barclays stockbrokers have a very useful feature - they show how your portfolio has performed compared to the index (FTSE all share IIRC). I'm ussually about 2% ahead which i'm more than pleased with.

I suspect most brokers don't offer this as most clients will find out they don't beat the market and will switch to low cost trackers - or am I being too cynical?

DiggerUK

intowhere wrote: »

.......A part of me thinks, why not just ramp it up, just buy as much as I can but I have a feeling this is all just luck; a few of the tips have been dire and I have lost 90% of their value, most havent moved but a few have really flown, but there is no logic to this

Its boom time my dear, and you don't realise that. The reasons for the rekindled boom are many and varied, but rhyme with what the boom that busted ten years ago were founded on.
Time to do some research and find out. It seems you have had the common sense to realise that a magic fairy isn't sprinkling seeds from the money tree in your garden.
You need to learn how to spot the signs of events going the other way. It's not rocket science. Next thing you know, someone's going to advise you to prepare for a crash and buy gold..._

k6chris

I did some research into the profits / losses that Retail FX traders make and how that maps to random trading. A 60% return could be just one of the outcomes on a distribution curve of random trading. Bank the profits and try again. If you get another 60% in year 2, that's potential evidence that your results are more than just luck! If you lose 60%, well you still have the profits from the first year!

Good luck!

Thrugelmir

sevenhills wrote: »

But since shares are higher now than 20 years ago

Are they all? Some all still well short. BT for example are well off their peak price.

WobblyDog

darkidoe wrote: »

You know statistically, if you flip a coin long enough, you WILL get 10 heads in a row. Maybe he is that 10 heads in the row.

I worry that there is a larger group of people who have followed a similar strategy, but chosen different stocks, and made substantial losses, but they won't be posting here.

darkidoe

WobblyDog wrote: »

I worry that there is a larger group of people who have followed a similar strategy, but chosen different stocks, and made substantial losses, but they won't be posting here.

Yes that is a valid point. That's what's called Survival Bias. Only the successful stories are paraded around. No one listens to the people who fail or struggle.

I wholely recommend this book: The Art of Thinking Clearly to help point out useful concepts to help with investing or just generally in life.