House price crash...

Sibley

Saw this story emerge yesterday in the DM.
Had a bit of a chuckle to myself and thought''''I wonder if'....

Took a look on HPC.....Bingo....All the old campaigners were out in force.....:rotfl:

Bruce Spanner and co.

Jesus, they are still harping on about a housing crash...None of them have bought. All still renting.
This news really rattled their cages...They are all working out how much their dream house will cost -40%.

On a separate note. It's weird how time and situations change you.

10 years ago, when they were on about a HPC it would have really effected me badly. The last thing I wanted was for prices to crash as I was planning on selling up in UK and moving to Thailand. I wanted my house to be worth as much money as possible obviously.

After an 8 year spell in SE Asia, I decided the place wasn't for me so came home.
So glad I never sold up and am now loving my house.

Prices where I live are beyond crazy now.
They are at least 30% above what I would class as very expensive.
A 2 bedroom old terrace is over £200,000. Saw a horrible 3 bedroom semi with no garden (next door to a garage) up for £275,000 as well.

40% off those place would seem fair TBH.

Still don't think they will see the HPC they are after. Not really any stressed sellers with low interest rates and tons of help for people getting in trouble.

What do you guys think?
Are we on the brink of is it false dawn number 100 for the HPC gang?



Daily Mail

Britain 'is on the brink of the worst house price collapse since 1990s': Experts predict property costs could plunge by FORTY PER CENT
The spectre raises the possibility of the return of 'negative equity'
This is when a house falls so far in value that its worth less than the mortgage
A shift could push thousands of recent buyers into housing trouble
Experts warned that we are due for a 'significant correction' in housing prices

House prices are teetering on the brink of a crash that could be as bad as the bust of the early 1990s, a leading expert has warned.

There are already warning signs that prices are heading towards a near 40 per cent plunge, warns Paul Cheshire, Professor of Economic Geography at the London School of Economics.

It raises the alarming spectre of the return of ‘negative equity’ – when a house falls so far in value it is worth less than the mortgage – which hit one million people at the worst point in the 1990s.
The crash could be as bad as the bust of the early 1990s, one leading expert warned

Speaking exclusively to The Mail on Sunday, Prof Cheshire, a former Government housing adviser, said: ‘We are due a significant correction in house prices. I think we are beginning to see signs that correction may be starting.

Stagnant wages and soaring house prices have left 320,000...

Camden Council forces 800 households out of their homes as...
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‘Historically, trends seem always to start in London and then move out across the rest of the country. In the capital, you are already seeing house prices rising less rapidly than in other parts of Britain.’


This graph shows how growth rates had consistently fallen over the last year - and may continue to slump further

Such a shift could push many thousands of recent buyers into trouble. From 1989, the price boom fell apart over the next six years, with prices plunging by 37 per cent.

In its most recent figures, The National Association of Estate Agents reported the number of homes sold in May for less than the asking price rose to 77 per cent.

According to Prof Cheshire, the fall in real incomes – when wages fail to keep up with inflation – is likely to be the spark for a fall in house prices. Inflation hit 2.9 per cent last month, while incomes only grew by 2.1 per cent.

The current housing market bears similarities to the housing crash of the early 90s (pictured), when average prices dropped from £62,000 to £50,000
The current housing market bears similarities to the housing crash of the early 90s (pictured), when average prices dropped from £62,000 to £50,000

Property experts and estate agents say the housing market in wealthier pockets of the country has been further hit by stamp duty hikes.

Prof Christian Hilber of the LSE also warned: ‘If Brexit leads to a recession and/or sluggish growth for extended periods, then an extended and severe downturn is more likely than a short-lived and mild one.’

The Council of Mortgage Lenders said earlier this month that the housing market had ‘stalled’.

chucknorris

Sibley wrote: »

Still don't think they will see the HPC they are after. Not really any stressed sellers with low interest rates and tons of help for people getting in trouble.

What do you guys think?
Are we on the brink of is it false dawn number 100 for the HPC gang?



[

It all seems to hinge on whether the outcome of Brexit will result in a recession or not, and that is very hard to predict. Interesting times ahead for sure, I'm glad that we have just sold about 30% of our investment property. We'll be OK whatever happens, but I hope that Brexit works out better than those articles hinting at a recession suggest.

westernpromise

The odd thing is that in a crash buying gets harder, not easier.

Mortgage lenders want higher deposits and lower salary multiples, and sellers looking to trade down won't do so until prices recover, so activity collapses.

Out,_Vile_Jelly

If prices crash by 40% I will still have enough equity to be able to sell, and will then be able to buy somewhere bigger and nicer that is now 40% cheaper. How many other people are in this position?

chucknorris

Out,_Vile_Jelly wrote: »

If prices crash by 40% I will still have enough equity to be able to sell, and will then be able to buy somewhere bigger and nicer that is now 40% cheaper. How many other people are in this position?

We plan to upgrade our home anyway, so we are also in that position, we know where we want to move to, we are just patiently waiting for the right house, and we'll be cash buyers (without having to sell), so in a very good position. But sellers will probably be reluctant to put property onto the market, and anyway, I suspect that although Brexit will be bad for us, it won't be as bad as the 40% crash articles are implying it will.

Conrad

I was a HPC member from about 2004.


My argument remains the same;


Big crashes require a significant jolt, such as loss of MIRAS in late 80's or us crashing out of the ERM in early 90's when mortgagees found themselves staring down the barrel of mortgage payments doubling and more almost over night.


What we see now is completely typical, I've seen these so many times, just the market making a mild natural adjustment.


Brexit wont make any meaningful impact, because again any EU imposed trade hampering on the UK automatically means the 9% of Dutch exports to the UK are also hampered, as but one of lots of examples.


I note Champagne producers now setting up in the UK, as expected, some European firms would be locating into the nimble globally oriented UK.

economic

Conrad wrote: »

I was a HPC member from about 2004.


My argument remains the same;


Big crashes require a significant jolt, such as loss of MIRAS in late 80's or us crashing out of the ERM in early 90's when mortgagees found themselves staring down the barrel of mortgage payments doubling and more almost over night.


What we see now is completely typical, I've seen these so many times, just the market making a mild natural adjustment.


Brexit wont make any meaningful impact, because again any EU imposed trade hampering on the UK automatically means the 9% of Dutch exports to the UK are also hampered, as but one of lots of examples.


I note Champagne producers now setting up in the UK, as expected, some European firms would be locating into the nimble globally oriented UK.

completely agree.

wymondham

House prices 'corrections' are no longer permitted. Carney's been tasked with keeping interest rates permanently on emergency measures to be sure....

mayonnaise

Conrad wrote: »

I note Champagne producers now setting up in the UK

Probably not.

System

A 40% fall wouldn't put them anywhere close to where prices were when they first started posting about it. Seems like a hollow victory.

Good opportunity for my excellently drawn diagram

BJV

I used to constantly worry about house prices. We moved last year and bought what will be the dream house. Paid a what we consider to be a fair price for a big old solid Victorian money pit. We also have rental properties.

TBH What will be will be. If I had delayed and not bought the big house. Yes I would of paid less but the house I was selling would be less. The bit in the middle would of been about the same. We have no plans to move and so long term I still think bricks and motor are safe bets.

Honestly wish instead of talking ourselves into downturn we all started to talk ourselves into a period growth.