Media Is Now Predicting A Massive 40% Property Price Crash

economic

GreatApe wrote: »

I dont know it's just an observation

Germany has many millions of single person households. Something like 16-17 million homes are lived in by just a single occupant in Germany. That may play a part in them having so few children

it would be interesting to know the cause of the falling birth rate. i dont disagree with you but a proper study on what contributed to the reduced birthrate would be eye opening.

this is why germany has allowed so many refugees into the country because they are worried about the fall in birth rate causing pension problems - not many young people productive enough to support older generations.

westernpromise

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

I see you're confusing a shortage of bedrooms (which we don't yet have) with a shortage of housing of the types people need and in the places people need them, which we most certainly have...

From the latest government white paper on this topic...


https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/590463/Fixing_our_broken_housing_market_-_accessible_version.pdf

And from elsewhere....

https://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/11/britains-lack-of-house-building-has-come-home-to-roost/

None of which is remotely persuasive.

We didn't have a housing shortage 20 years ago. What has happened in the last 20 years? Why, the population has gone up. So we have not a housing shortage but a population surplus; which is not the same thing, at all.

westernpromise

GreatApe wrote: »

However building 5.5 million additional homes would mean we have the same number of homes per capita as Germany does today. The Germans do indeed have lower house prices and rents so that proves 1 and 2 but they have much lower ownership and much higher renting which disproves 3

A couple of other things are going on in Germany as well.

Most rental property in Germany is in blocks of corporately-owned flats. Typically flats in these blocks come as shells, so you either fit your own kitchen and bathroom, or you make do with whatever the previous tenant leaves behind. This militates against tenants leaving very often.

Germany tends also to be regional in its industries. Dusseldorf is fashion, Cologne is media, Frankfurt is finance, Stuttgart is cars, and so on. This means that whatever industry you work in you are more likely to stay put than move around to get ahead.

Rented flats are never sold to owner-occupiers. Instead they're sold en bloc to other corporates. Typically the corporate owner writes off the purchase price against rental profit (they are allowed to depreciate it over 50 years) as well as the finance so they don't pay a lot of tax. When sold they are refurbed and it all starts again.

Germany is also starting to experience house price inflation for the same reasons as everyone else:
https://www.destatis.de/EN/Publications/STATmagazin/Prices/2014_01/2014_01HousingMarket.html#Link5

Crashy_Time

http://www.standard.co.uk/business/carillion-in-crisis-as-contract-bungles-deal-845-million-blow-a3584146.html

Thrugelmir

GreatApe wrote: »

In Germany a typical rental is 1 person and they may earn say 28,000 euros.

With 90% of Germany's housing stock being damaged or destroyed in the war. In cities such as Hamburg. There are large areas of the City dedicated to large blocks of flats. Often having up to 4 bedroom apartments in them. Quite spacious in fact in order that large families could be accomodated comfortably.

GreatApe

Thrugelmir wrote: »

With 90% of Germany's housing stock being damaged or destroyed in the war. In cities such as Hamburg. There are large areas of the City dedicated to large blocks of flats. Often having up to 4 bedroom apartments in them. Quite spacious in fact in order that large families could be accomodated comfortably.

Yet German women are only having 1.4 children and some 17 million German adults live alone all by themselves.

AG47

It's obvious property is over valued, the only question is when will the big correction come

lisyloo

AG47 wrote: »

It's obvious property is over valued, the only question is when will the big correction come

I've been around long enough to know that people were saying that in 2001. Some will have died, sound women will have become infertile, relationships ended, so I'm saying don't base your life around waiting for it.

GreatApe

House prices only impact a small proportion of natives

British women have fewer than 2 kids and their kids will get their houses for free and their grandparents houses for free too.

If anything the locals are not only not net buyers they will be net sellers.

The real losers are the lower skill migrants who have to work long hours with low pay to buy this excess housing from the locals after decades of toil. They have real problems and hard lives.

AG47

40% down will take years, I mean look how long the bubble took to expand so much