Brexit, The Economy and House Prices (Part 2)

mayonnaise

CKhalvashi wrote: »

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/842298/remainer-plot-revealed-EU-Brexit-back-door-deal-UK-Article-49

Ooh, oh, oh, yes please! Let's have it on 30th March 2019 when Maybot, Dave and BoJo are out the way

REMAINERS are sneakily plotting to stay in the EU by triggering Article 49

LOL. 'sneakily plotting.'

The article 49 route is looking increasingly likely though. The chances of any kind of deal with the EU are now non-existent.
Give it a couple years, a UK economy on its knees, IMF bailouts looming, and the calls to rejoin will become louder and louder while mutterings about the so called 'democratic mandate' from that non-legally binding advisory referendum back in 2016 will have vanished by then. Happy days.

Seabee42

I think tax is an important part of life to mutually pay for some things in life. It is quite clear though that support for high taxation is low because politicians in general look for indirect taxes rather than simply putting up income tax.


If we were serious about reform we would do away with NI and unify it with income tax of course this would cost pensioners more but the highest spending is also on pensioners.


I do think job opportunities for the young has decreased not any work just better work. This along with grade inflation and send hoards to university are quite frankly an experiment that failed.


I think some support for other people has largely failed due to the loss of communities in this country which does of course bring us round to the original topic the EU.


I am almost surprised that people do not recognise that labour got the maximum reward in the 70s undoubtedly due to the unions and yet union membership is largely just in the civil service.

Fella

The Remainer whining is now so high-pitched that soon only dogs will be able to hear it.

Meanwhile Brexit continues

GreatApe

Rinoa wrote: »

They also consume a huge part of the economy. They need heathcare, school places, council services etc. They also receive tax credits and housing benefit. When the plusses and minuses are balanced out it's difficult to see how we benefit.

We do benefit in that without migrants the uk would see its population shrink both because native women have only about 1.7 children each (and looking around my peers in their 30s I think that number is going to get smaller) and also because about 100,000 natives leave each year

The problem without the migrants is, our own kids would have to do the !!!!!! low payed jobs. My kids wont be doing those jobs so I hope you are happy for your kids to do them

Also without migrants we would have whole sectors that would be nonviable certainly at their current scale like construction. Sure things houses might be much cheaper but the locals get free housing anyway so that should not be a concern.

As discussed before the supply of their labor is mostly offset by the demand from the goods and services they need.

gfplux

Rinoa wrote: »

They also consume a huge part of the economy. They need heathcare, school places, council services etc. They also receive tax credits and housing benefit. When the plusses and minuses are balanced out it's difficult to see how we benefit.

Rinoa I am not going to find the data, BUT, there have been many, many study's showing that EU nationals make a huge positive financial contribution to the UK economy.
That is why the British negotiators are hoping to find a way of keeping them in Britain.
However that really is old news.
We are where we are and this thread should be about Brexit and not about the past.

gfplux

always_sunny wrote: »

hmmm I actually pay for health care through my taxes and [given my age] I am less likely to use it.
Average age is actually younger than the UK population, statistically care for the elderly folks is a huge chunk to healthcare.

You must have this idea that everyone here is some toothless folks from the EU queuing to use the NHS for free but that is an extreme example. Many EU countries have better health care system. Even schooling in the UK doesn't fare that much better than Poland.

Tax credits and housing benefits, that is a British problem that eventually needs sorting out.
It's difficult to see the benefit because the UK doesn't have proper records.

As I have said before.
When my wife first came to the UK she was told by another immigrant
"If you get ill go straight to the Airport"
She was also told, "don't mention this as the British think they have the best medical care in the world"
That was over 30 years ago. Is the NHS better today?

Sorry off topic. There are too many posts off topic at the moment.

Rusty_Shackleton

GreatApe wrote: »

That is a silly statement because you can say it always at any point of taxation and anything you can say always like that is clearly fully void of any meaning or value.

I would be more happy to pay for more marginal policing if the marginal benefit was worthwhile. That means if we have to pay £1 million per reduced burglary then its not worthwhile. If it cost £10 per reduced burglary then its very worthwhile. But clearly it is stupid to say I would pay for more policing full stop

Maybe you joined your solicits groups because you think alike or maybe, much more likely, the group and group think and biases has formed your beliefs for you

Anyway we know as people get older, ie they actually start paying taxes, they get less keen to vote for more taxes and more keen to vote for center right parties so while you may be a unique human devoid of natural human instincts your countrymen are not

Here is a thought for you, you have a choice to save your own kid or 20 kids you dont know which do you do? Humans save their own kids irrespective of it costing 20 others kids. Its out biology we cant help it

In fact your refusal to give just 10% of your income to charity is probably costing lots of little babies their heath and their lives as we type. Really a !!!!!! thought

I agree and that is the system we already have

We have that already, the people in difficult situations in the UK are primarily down to things like drug/alcohol/gambling addictions not lack of more taxes

What is it we lack for in this country?

I do not think you are aware of it ie not doing it consciously its instead a feature of the groups you associate with. Group think and confirmation bias are real and they impact ALL OF US and most of the time. You are a member of your tribe and follow its rules regulations and thinking.

Same could be said of a religious person or even a right wing person for instance there are some very poor people who vote tory in their shoes it makes little sense to do so but they do it for the same reasons some well off people vote hard left its because they are a part of a tribe and their tribal thinking trumps their personal situation/s

Yes, there's the argument that we can always pay marginally more, which is is why I specifically said I don't think we provide enough and to an acceptable standard of the basics. I'm not advocating full on communism for gods sake!

Of course I would choose my own child given the choice, that's a ridiculous question to ask. The government on the other hand, given the choice of saving my child or 20 other British children, should choose the 20 children every time, and that's an important point. The government/the electorate chooses the material wealth of lots of people over the basic needs of far too many people. There are a lot of people going hungry (evidenced by food banks), there are lots of people who are homeless (ONS will tell you that), there are lots of people receiving substandard healthcare (NHS waiting lists, certain treatments not provided as too expensive... not the NHS' fault by the way, they of course have to prioritise with the resources they've got).

As for "people in difficult situations in the UK are primarily down to things like drug/alcohol/gambling addictions not lack of more taxes" - that's pretty appalling and I'd love to see your evidence for such a claim. Even accepting it at face value, what about the children of those people? Lack of funding for things like Sure Start centres is punishing children for their parents actions. Do you believe addiction is entirely down to the individual, or do you recognise that many addicts get to that point because things have gone horribly wrong in their lives, and some of it is beyond their control. There is no certainty that you or I couldn't become alcoholics through life dealing us a bad hand in the future, and us being unable to cope as individuals, and a couple of drinks here and there spiralling out of control. Even if somebody has become an addict through their own lack of self control, don't you think society helping them to recover is a worthwhile cause? Or is your preferred approach literally just f*** them? How about your own self interest, heroin addicts commit crime to feed their habit, so treating them has benefits to society beyond the good deed of helping someone who needs help.

I acknowledge that there is of course confirmation bias and it affects everyone to some degree, but as for 'my tribe', I have a mostly pro-tory, daily mail reading family. My colleagues are mostly right of centre right. I have one friend who is as left wing as I am, majority are centre left, a couple centre right (certainly lab, con and lib voters in the group, as well as remain and leave voters). By no means do my social groups agree with me on most things. That's fine, we enjoy debating. I don't think my social groups are an echo chamber in the slightest, the only voices missing are actual communists and extreme right wingers. The most obvious lack of representation in my social groups are very poor (although I have friends on NMW, and not temporarily either) and wealthy beyond middle class (a friend in a family of doctors is about as wealthy as it gets)... what's your take on that make up?

As for this ongoing thing about 10% to charity, let me illustrate my position in the hope you'll finally move on. I'm currently buying a house, so have been saving substantially recently to cover all the inherent costs. Shortly, my savings will be (almost) wiped out. Most of my disposable income will go back to building up savings to cover things like, if I lost my job, if the boiler breaks etc. etc. etc. so while, yes technically I could give 10% of my income (and more) to charity, to do so could leave me in a precarious position. I've given less to charity in the past 6 months or so due to this position. I will end up giving more to charity when its sensible for me to do so, not because you're bizarrely attempting to goad me on a forum! I've also volunteered with various charities since I was quite young. None of this has any bearing on my willingness to pay more tax, it might take me longer to build up my savings, but I would adjust. However to voluntarily do so now would be irresponsible at this point in my life.

gfplux

Back to Brexit.
I have read a lot and heard a lot about the British position paper on the Irish and Northern Irish border.
Link to the paper. https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/638135/6.3703_DEXEU_Northern_Ireland_and_Ireland_INTERACTIVE.pdf

Quotes such as "a smugglers charter" and "can you imagine either side allowing customs men to come across the border and inspect good" and "there are plenty of people who would react with violence"

Can this plan work given the history?
And
Have they forgotten about Gibraltar again?

Didn't you hear Back to Brexit.

Seabee42

The thing is there are reports on both sides as to whether immigrants add or not. On one hand GDP with more people means more consumers, this is the politicians answer to paying future bills. There is also the report that they pay more in income taxes than they receive in benefits. As if that was all taxes were for!


On average only the top 10% of people will pay more in taxes than they receive from the government over their lives since this largely will also apply to immigrants most will not actually be net contributors.


It should not be a goal in itself just to raise GDP we need GDP per person to actually go up and yet whilst the number of jobs is not finite it seems the growth in jobs is in zero hours or self employed UBer type jobs not really great is it?

Rusty_Shackleton

Seabee42 wrote: »

The thing is there are reports on both sides as to whether immigrants add or not. On one hand GDP with more people means more consumers, this is the politicians answer to paying future bills. There is also the report that they pay more in income taxes than they receive in benefits. As if that was all taxes were for!

You've actually misquoted what a lot of the research says about immigrants and costs to the state, they say that immigrants are net contributors to the exchequer, i.e. your use of the word benefits needs to include cost of schools, hospitals, roads etc. Not benefits as in social security.