Brexit, The Economy and House Prices (Part 2)

kabayiri

ilovehouses wrote: »

I don't think Brexit is measurable - it's too subjective. There will never be any KPI's.
...

Then this is true for both sides. The EU may lay claim to headline victories, sure, but if Spanish fishermen lose access to fishing grounds it is of little consolation if Barnier got one over on the UK team.

I actually think there are clear KPIs, at least some.

If our trade increases outside the EU, compared with inside, then that is a stated aim, is it not.

My question concerns the lack of timescales. Perhaps they don't want to spook the public.

always_sunny

kabayiri wrote: »

Then this is true for both sides. The EU may lay claim to headline victories, sure, but if Spanish fishermen lose access to fishing grounds it is of little consolation if Barnier got one over on the UK team.

I actually think there are clear KPIs, at least some.

If our trade increases outside the EU, compared with inside, then that is a stated aim, is it not.

My question concerns the lack of timescales. Perhaps they don't want to spook the public.

That's indeed the UK view where again it's believed the whole Spain economy is based on:
- Fishing in UK waters
- British pensioners spending money
- British tourist

When the UK will deprive Spain of those 3 items, bang, not only Spain but the whole EU will suffer.

The EU is not at war looking for victories or losses. the EU (and member states) have moved on already and the goal is streamlining UK's exit. That's the usual UK perception that every country revolves around Britain, it doesn't.

If UK loses access to the SM, the impact is fairly dramatic, but of course, UK believes the EU needs them.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

If you're after a reasonable comment upon Brexit negotiation strategy so far, have a read of this from Lord Kerr who - as well as being the author of Article 50 - is widely acknowledged as being in disdain of Brexit:

John Kerr — now Lord Kerr of Kinlochard — said EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier had secured “impressive unanimity” from the EU27 only by overpromising on the Brexit bill. But he said it was disappointing that the U.K. was adopting a reactive strategy rather than setting out a vision for Britain’s future relationship with the bloc.



The former diplomat said Barnier should have agreed to simultaneous talks on the future relationship between Britain and the EU and the divorce bill — insisting that the text of Article 50 allowed for it.

http://www.politico.eu/article/brexit-john-kerr-uk-eu-have-both-made-blunders-says-article-50-author/

always_sunny

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

If you're after a reasonable comment upon Brexit negotiation strategy so far, have a read of this from Lord Kerr who - as well as being the author of Article 50 - is widely acknowledged as being in disdain of Brexit:

http://www.politico.eu/article/brexit-john-kerr-uk-eu-have-both-made-blunders-says-article-50-author/

A little bit like the Leave campaign overpromising the aftermath of Brexit ...

mayonnaise

UK budget deficit jumps to £6.8bn in June as Brexit pushes up inflation and interest rates

Britain's budget deficit came in wider than expected in June as higher inflation since the Brexit vote forced the Government to pay more interest on its debt.

The deficit in June stood at £6.8bn, up 43 per cent compared with the same month last year, the Office for National Statistics said on Friday, citing figures that exclude state-controlled banks.

The shortfall for June was much bigger than a median forecast of £4.8bn in a Reuters poll of economists.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/uk-budget-deficit-brexit-interest-rates-economy-government-bank-england-a7852436.html

A_Medium_Size_Jock

mayonnaise wrote: »

UK budget deficit jumps to £6.8bn in June as Brexit pushes up inflation and interest rates

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/uk-budget-deficit-brexit-interest-rates-economy-government-bank-england-a7852436.html

This from Reuters:

Spending on debt interest jumped an annual 33 percent in June to 4.9 billion pounds, the highest for any month of June since 2011, reflecting a sharp rise in inflation which has pushed up the cost of index-linked bonds for the government.
The deficit was also widened by higher payments to the European Union budget and bigger purchases of goods and services by the government.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-borrowing-idUKKBN1A60UF?il=0

Just think how much bigger the deficit would have been had Labour gained control!
See thread for some discussion surrounding that here: https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/5635585

always_sunny

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

This from Reuters:

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-borrowing-idUKKBN1A60UF?il=0

Just think how much bigger the deficit would have been had Labour gained control!
See thread for some discussion surrounding that here: https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/5635585

Or how much smaller if the UK stayed in the UK :rotfl:

A_Medium_Size_Jock

always_sunny wrote: »

Or how much smaller if the UK stayed in the UK :rotfl:

Huh?
Spot the error.

BTW, we are still "in" the EU; we have not left yet.

Thrugelmir

ilovehouses wrote: »

The UK negotiating team ceded control of the negotiations to the EU on day one.

Doesn't sound if you've negotiated very often.

If that were the case there'd be agreement by now.

cogito

ilovehouses wrote: »

Ceding control of the negotiations obviously doesn't mean one side gets to dictate terms. However, those arriving at negotiations fully prepared, knowing what they want and getting to drive the agenda and timings tend to be at an advantage. In your extensive negotiating experience haven't you found that to be the case?

Knowing what you want and getting it are two entirely different things. I don't doubt that both sides know what they want but you don't get it by putting your cards on the table. In putting their position papers out in the open, the EU have done exactly that.

They are peeved that the UK hasn't done the same, hence the perplexity displayed by Barnier at yesterday's press conference. I, for one, am not unhappy with the direction of travel and am quite sure that the UK is as prepared as it can be.