UK Affordability still very good

economic

GreatApe wrote: »

Even if house prices cost 20 x wages it would still be affordable for the majority as the majority of UK born Brits have UK born parents and grandparents who are owners so they will inherit property or the sums to buy property.

agree. I have been gifted money as well. from parents who have earnt below average.


trust me there are a lot more in a similar position to me.

ukcarper

GreatApe wrote: »

As noted before London has more social housing and more migrants than rUK. So while rUK can aim for 2/3rd owners 1/6th social 1/6th private rental that isn't possible in London.

And as noted before the extremely simple model of median wage should buy the median for sale home is obviously a crap unreasonable model.

You need to break it down to first time buyers second time buyers capital buyers inheritors etc.

More reasonable to say first time buyers who have no help/gifts/inheritances should be able to buy the 20th percentile property in their region and I would say count London as part of the SE region rather than a separate region.


If you think of Kensington its a crazy multiple of earnings vs house prices and it always has been crazy high. The reason is that the typical Kensington buyer is not buying with just their wages. Well that's has been true for multiple areas Kensington Chelsea Westminster etc so what's to say that cant or hasn't expanded to cover more borough and perhaps in time most the borough's of London

I've never said median earners should be able to buy a average house, I have just said that a reasonable of affordablity should be a single median earner should be able to buy a flat and a couple on median household earnings should be able to buy a house that can be a small 2 bed terrace and that is not possible in many areas.

GreatApe

economic wrote: »

agree. I have been gifted money as well. from parents who have earnt below average.

trust me there are a lot more in a similar position to me.

Yes I agree. I've done posts on the subject of Inheritences etc but the crash cheerleaders just state that the old will spend it all on care homes. Well no there is an annual transfer of £200 billion each year form old to young. The crash cheerleaders are a self selecting confirmation bias cave so they completely ignore the multiple elephants in the room which totally explain why life is quite good for most people in the UK.

£100 billion in annual inheritances
£100 billion in annual gifting
Some £600 billion annual income by UK citizens in capital returns and thus not 'earnt income' (like dividends on shares, rent on properties, interest on savings etc)


Let ignore all these and build a model that says median wages (including children and part time workers) should be able to buy the median for sale house (so we will burn down the social housing stock as everyone is buying now). The crash cheerleaders are their own enemies

ukcarper

GreatApe wrote: »

Even if house prices cost 20 x wages it would still be affordable for the majority as the majority of UK born Brits have UK born parents and grandparents who are owners so they will inherit property or the sums to buy property.

Home ownership is 64% so that's 36% of people who won't inherent of the 64% that will inherent the inherentice will be shared small and come to late.

Using the fact that some people will inherent at sometime as an argument to say property is affordable laughable.

GreatApe

ukcarper wrote: »

I've never said median earners should be able to buy a average house, I have just said that a reasonable of affordablity should be a single median earner should be able to buy a flat and a couple on median household earnings should be able to buy a house that can be a small 2 bed terrace and that is not possible in many areas.

What % of areas are affordable by your definition and what % is not?

80% affordable 20% not?

Well what if you take another look at the 20% unaffordable areas with the understanding that £200 billion is gifted and inherited annually and £600 billion is earned annually outside of employed income. How affordable does the 20% unaffordable areas look then?

economic

ukcarper wrote: »

Home ownership is 64% so that's 36% of people who won't inherent of the 64% that will inherent the inherentice will be shared small and come to late.

Using the fact that some people will inherent at sometime as an argument to say property is affordable laughable.

but cash gifts exists. to be able to afford the deposit.

GreatApe

ukcarper wrote: »

Home ownership is 64% so that's 36% of people who won't inherent of the 64% that will inherent the inherentice will be shared small and come to late.

Using the fact that some people will inherent at sometime as an argument to say property is affordable laughable.

Some people 'inherit' social housing.

Gifting and inheriting estates is neither small nor spread thin. Look at my thread about inheritences its significant sums to significant numbers of people.

Also ownership is higher among UK born citizens we can ignore the migrants. Ownership for UK born was 68.8% in 2011 and it was higher for the older age groups.

I would estimate more that half the uk born population will inherit a property or an portion of an estate sizeable enough to buy a property (or multiple portions of multiple properties)

economic

a lot of the present wealth has been accumulated by the baby boomers. they are in their 60s now and their offspring are in their 30s. the parents in their 60s would have had 40 years or so of working life and bought a property which is their home with no mortgage now with significant equity since they bought.


imagine the savings accumulated over the years by these baby boomers and the potential for this to be passed to their offspring. yes wages have been stagnant and living expenses risen, so the baby boomers would help their children out in sympathy.


this is happening on a large scale. and has a massive impact on house prices.

ukcarper

economic wrote: »

but cash gifts exists. to be able to afford the deposit.

For some people but not the majority and in my opinion property is not affordable if it's only affordable for people lucky enough get gifts.

ukcarper

GreatApe wrote: »

What % of areas are affordable by your definition and what % is not?

80% affordable 20% not?

Well what if you take another look at the 20% unaffordable areas with the understanding that £200 billion is gifted and inherited annually and £600 billion is earned annually outside of employed income. How affordable does the 20% unaffordable areas look then?

I think looking at regions is not very informative for example the south east covers a large area and the price of property in Dover are not relevant to to living in Guildford.

But to ans your question without taking the time to analyse the data I would say it's some where between what you think and what Windofchange think.