Is now the time to buy?

Conrad

WBAPanthers wrote: »

Is now the best time to buy with all the Brexit stuff in mind?
Is there ever a best time or bad time to buy?

Imagine how you could have asked this in the early 1970's with wars all over, OPEC crisis, strikes etc.


Same in late 1970s.


Same in early 80s - many said Thatcher was crashing Britain


Threat of nuclear war a constant nag.


And so it goes, there is always a mass of background of strife and disharmony.


In 1970 a detached home round here was about £5k. Today it's worth £1m in spite of the huge ups and downs on the way.


Who cares if you buy at the precise opportune moment given the long term view? What would you achieve? At best you might (and its a long shot) wait and get say 15% off, but so what? There's far more chance waiting will mean paying more.


Don't get obsessed with trying to maximise your position it truly can lead to a very gloomy unhealthy view of life (seen it first hand). Money maximisation should never be the be all and end all.


Just buy and enjoy your own home in the knowledge your'e on the ladder and on your way. If prices temporarily fall, hey ho, just wait.




In any event they wont fall, you will not see a crash without a significant shock.


Brexit is about opportunity and us tailoring our own destiny. This tailored autonomy WILL enable us to prosper even better than now.


Think about it - you have the old tired lumbering slow EU full of rules and enterprise killing intrusiveness on one side of the Chanel. On the other you have a pro enterprise, nimble, confident global nation, a haven for investors with it's own full seat at all the global rule setting tables that hand down rules to the EU


I assure you Brexit will be a huge success. Quote me on it - stick this on your fridge.

juniordoc

Conrad wrote: »

Brexit is about opportunity and us tailoring our own destiny. This tailored autonomy WILL enable us to prosper even better than now.

I assure you Brexit will be a huge success. Quote me on it - stick this on your fridge.

I bet you think the NHS will get £350 million extra a week and all! :rotfl: You were sold a pack of lies!

cashbackproblems

Crashy_Time wrote: »

So once in property that becomes secured money, money you can`t lose?

Compared to renting which is guaranteed lost money? Even a 10% fall (which we saw briefly in 2010 but not much worse in decades) you still get back the majority of your deposit and mortgage paid.


Assuming a 300k property most people would put down 30-50k deposit that money will earn you near enough to 0% in savings

WBAPanthers

Thanks for all the replies

I'm not in a rush to buy, still living at home with family, and I know most will say - stay there as long as you can

But it's that next step in my life, got a good career I've always wanted, got a car, now I want a house and the independence I don't currently have.

I did see a house I really really liked, but it's too soon for that. Just spoke to a very helpful advisor he's told me what price to look for, so now it's just the waiting game for a house in that price I like to come up.

Just interested in other peoples views, have a lot scaremongering saying "buy now mortgage term as long as possible cause of brexit" to other saying "sooner the better yes, but brexit won't play much of a part for a couple of years" appreciate we can't look into the future and predict how things will go (if only we could)

AlexMac

WBAPanthers wrote: »

Thanks for all the replies
I'm not in a rush to buy, still living at home with family ... But ... now I want a house and the independence I don't currently have.

I think you just answered your original Q!

WBAPanthers wrote: »

... I know most will say - stay there (with family) as long as you can ...

Oh no we won't.

I bought in my early 30's (as Conrad says above), in an area where a house then costing £10k (in my case) would now be worth a million. Never regretted it. In fact, wish I'd bought in my 20's.

You buy for somewhere to live, not as an investment... but in practice, as you'll probably skint yourself on the 1st home, then struggle for a few years then trade up, by default, it's the best tax-free savings scheme you'll ever join.

Go for it

JIR

Just as another view, how long do you see yourself living in your current area? If medium to long term then all good. But weigh up the cost of moving.

In my case I choose to rent as I don't feel settled in this area. My rent is reasonable and to buy the house I am in I would be looking at an additional £500 a month for a mortgage. Add to this the costs of buying and selling and - for now at least I am better off renting, saving the difference each month and building up a great deposit for when I am ready to move - and buy.

It is easier to walk away from a rental and repairs are also not my problem

GoldenShadow

I wouldn't be stretching myself to buy a property I plan to stay in less than 5 years right now. We are selling our 2 bed semi and upgrading. Our upgrade is a potential forever house, easily a 10 year + one. We've managed to crank our deposit up to 15% despite borrowing more which gives us a better cushion too. I don't think we're about to see any huge hikes but I'm also not convinced prices will come down much. Like another poster said, in my area also I've seen supply fall but demand hasn't. Our house sold within 3 days of going live at asking price which was 25% higher than what we paid less than 18 months before!

ruperts

Can't see any fundamentals suggestive of a crash in the first time buyer market now the government has abandoned its pledge to build any starter homes. You've got a massive pent up demand of people stuck renting and a shortage of available stock. I can't see how that can translate into a sustained crash. Maybe a wobble with a quick rebound but nothing long term. Significantly rising interests rates could do it but we all know the government will do what they can to keep property prices propped up, so I can't see them raising rates to the extent that it significantly affects house prices.

Ultimately unless you can find somewhere to rent for a much lower monthly cost to an equivalent mortgage repayment then the amount of money being committed to equity each month if you buy will quickly dwarf any associated costs and would even cover a moderate crash. In my area monthly rents and typical first time buyer mortgage repayments are more or less exactly the same, if anything the mortgage repayments are slightly cheaper, so take into account that about £300 of the £700 or so mortgage repayment is being committed to equity and it doesn't take many months for buying plus associated costs to be better value than having rented for the same time period. Add in a house price crash and it'll take a bit longer, but you're only talking 2-3 years. As long as you avoid a situation where you have to sell quickly then buying seems like a no-brainer if you can afford the deposit.

PeterPanic

Bear in mind the people on housepricecrash have been convinced a crash is imminent for 14 years now. So convinced were they, that there was a news item in 2005/06 showing several members who had sold their London properties to rent instead. In the news report they were smugly explaining how they were soon going to make a killing by buying property again after the crash. That went well for them......

I must admit I was reading housepricecrash in 2005 and it almost becomes like a cult. The arguments were so convincing that you really do feel like they know something that everybody doesn't. So convinced was I that a crash was coming that I also toyed with the idea of selling our then property (since lost in a divorce anyway...) and moving into rented. Thank god I didn't go through with it in the end.

So you have bitter people like Crashy who thought they knew better and have watched prices increase for the last 14 years while paying off someone else's mortgage. They have waited so long now that they won't buy as that crash must still be around the corner. They honestly think prices are going to fall 50% and people will be begging them to take their properties off their hands.

As for the best time to buy, any time in the last 25 years would have been good.

It is a home, not an investment, the benefit of owning your own house and not having to have inspections or the risk of the landlord throwing you out far outweigh the risk of prices falling. Plus mortgage rates are at their lowest ever so I personally think now is a great time to buy.

Davesnave

PeterPanic wrote: »

Bear in mind the people on housepricecrash have been convinced a crash is imminent for 14 years now. .

Well, they were right; it happened in 2008, but it wasn't as huge as they expected.

If they'd sold up in, say, 2006 and re-purchased in mid-2009, or if they'd just purchased as FTBs at the latter time, they'd have done OK.

But most didn't, because they were expecting more than was reasonable.

We sold our house in 2008 at 16% below the previous year's valuation, and I know they fell further in our (desirable) area, so maybe a 20% discount was possible. Not bad. However, by then, there weren't many people selling!

It was also possible to make a good profit on renting in 2008. Our rent was £10k/pa less than the interest we were accruing once we'd sold.

So, conditions were good for the sell-to-renters, but it didn't last long. They were simply too far up their own fundamentals to recognise a good situation when it happened.