"Housing Market Slumps"

ukcarper

Windofchange wrote: »

Except for the fact that (MOST) 68% of prime London is brought by UK buyers and not those pesky Chinese and Malaysians, although I agree with the sentiment that this is certainly helping the bubble along:

https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0ahUKEwiSqPWx77PSAhXoBcAKHYa4BtYQFggfMAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fresearchbriefings.files.parliament.uk%2Fdocuments%2FCBP-7723%2FCBP-7723.pdf&usg=AFQjCNG-3DjGsqh5D2UZiR3bL_8GJHKtMg&sig2=u8H505pbrTVylBfRW-j6dg

Your link isn't working

Windofchange

GreatApe wrote: »

Why do the hordes need to inherit £500k or above?

Well I don't know, you suggested that 10% of the population were!

GreatApe wrote: »

More than I can count on my fingers and toes. I know one guy who will leave at least £5 million to his many grandkids many of which are quite dim by his own admission. These grand kids wages and incomes will/are irrelevant to how comfortable economically speaking this lives will be. While your grand kids might wonder why their teacher/nurse/firemen wage isn't enough to buy a terrace in an expensive areas his lower paid dimer grandkids will be buying those said homes.

More importantly and significantly is not how many you or I know but how many actually exist.

I would put the figure at at least 10% of the population. If nearly 10% of households can afford to send the kids through a private education costing £250k then you can be quite confident these people have significant assets.

Not to mention there are good data sets available from the ones detailing inheritance by numbers who receive and amounts given and breakdown of course of said inheritances if you are interested go look it up. If you can't be bothered I'll summarise by simply saying many more people than you would imagine get significant sums. And then there are gifts before inheritances which are at least as large as inheritances imo

You are just pulling things out of your head. Why would I want to increase the figures by 50% to account for 3 years? Did I miss something with the rate of inflation in my sleep?

GreatApe wrote: »

Since the data is a few years old I would suggest you increase the figures by 50% if you want an idea of a more reasonable account of what is going on in 2017 rather than 2013/14

I haven't been crying anything. I have been presenting you with facts and you have come back with lets pick a number, triple it, do something in my head and boom.

You've still not answered my question as to why home ownership has been in decline since 1981 if everyone is getting richer? Surely in your world home ownership should be soaring? Why are the people getting all these inheritances not getting on the property ladder?

Windofchange

GreatApe wrote: »

A billionaire that has two kids that have two kids etc will see his £1 billion spread to a single package holiday in spain for his kids kids 20 generations down the line.

You really are quite comical. Yup, because billionaires and their off spring are idiots who won't invest the money and still be billionaires in 20 generations time!? I know a billionaire. His great great great grandchildren will be just fine...

This goes back to my point that half of this 10 trillion you talk about is held by 10% of the population. The pot as you call it isn't being spread far and wide. It is being held in very tightly guarded circles. The top earning 40% of the UK holds 63% of your 10 trillion:

https://www.equalitytrust.org.uk/scale-economic-inequality-uk

This is what you are not grasping. The pots of gold are not spread around. There are a lot of people who will get no inheritance. There are a lot of people who will get 10k to pay for a funeral followed by a !!!! up in the pub after Doris kicks it. There are a lot of people who even if they had a 50 grand inheritance couldn't afford to service a mortgage because they are unemployed or on zero hour contracts - i.e. the banks won't touch them.

Your assumptions that wealth is distributed far, wide and evenly to the population are laughable.

Windofchange

GreatApe wrote: »

For 2013/2014
2,280 people left an inheritance of >£2 million
6,061 people left an inheritance of > £1 million to £2 million
21,742 people left an inheritence of > £0.5 million to £1 million
54,842 people left an inheritance of >£0.3 million to £0.5 million
43,087 people left an inheritence of > £0.2 million to £0.3 million
71,849 people left an inheritance of > £100k to £200k
Do I need to go on?

No please don't! You've accounted in 2013/14 for approximately 200,000 people out of 65 million getting an inheritance of 100k or above, and your assertion is that this is the pot being spread far and wide!? By your numbers above, 0.3% of the population of the UK received an inheritance of 100k or above.

You then think that you can multiply the 200,000 by 30 to arrive at 6 million, but still count this as a percentage of the exact same 65 million people? Some have died, some have been born, it doesn't work like that. Maybe in 2014/15 250,000 people will get an inheritance of 100k or above, but the population has grown to 66 million. That is 0.38% of the population getting an inheritance then.

So, take your skewed maths and times 0.3% by 30. In your 30 years you have now accounted for 9% of the UK getting an inheritance of 100k or above.

You have actually proven my point quite well in that the pot as you say is not getting spread out around the country. 0.3% of the UK have got a pot of 100k or above, and bear in mind that is an estate that as you say might get split between 2 or 3 children. The wealth is very focused, and it is very well guarded, hence the absolute resistance for any sort of property crash / correction. The 1% don't like sharing.

Again, your point that everyone is getting a slice of this 10 trillion to keep things motoring along is absurd.

GreatApe

Nonsense confirmation bias from wind of NO change. You jumped into this debate knowing nothing of inheritance data and stats yet instead of being greatfull for me bringing you the data on a plate and doing some good analysis and broadining your understand you drink out if the confirmation bias well and attack me. If you continue like this you will continue to be poor and ignorant

Let's conclude what you have learnt today that you didn't know a couple of days ago.

Some 200,000 pots of gold are left each and every year with the lowest of these pots containing £100,000 and some of the pots much !!!!!!.

Most people die only once. So next years inheritance pots of gold will largely go to different people . Therefore to judge how far and wide the pots of gold go you have to look at how many pots of gold go out each generation. You can pick your own number but I reckon about 30 years for a generation is a fair number. So that is 6 million pots of gold going from one generation to the next. Somehow you thus conclude its only going to 10% of the population when in reality once you remove the kids and the ones dyeing to leave the pots of gold and the beneficial gold pot receivers you get to a figure of about two thirds of the population. Which correlates well with the figure that roughly two thirds of households own their own homes.

You've not even touched in the fact that gifts will be of a similar if not larger size.

Here is a tip. The man that listens and thinks before he speaks is smarter than the fool that rushes in. Don't be the fool. Spend a few days thinking and then come back and tell me your 1 hours knowledge and zero minutes analysis of the subject is better than mine

GreatApe

I assume the pots are about 50% bigger because over the last 3-4 years house prices and the FTSE are up significantly and the amount of bonds in issue too plus the saving rate during that time was positive as well all adding to and growing the pots of gold.

It doesn't matter if the figure isn't 50%, it could be 30% it could be 60% it could be 37.4576% the point of a discussion like this is to get general information not data accurate to 15 significant places.

The fact is the data available is out of date and its now higher. Arguing about the exact price is irrelevant when even the 2013 data shows sums being inherited beyond your wildest fusses two days ago when you were suggesting inheritances and gifts play a negligible role in housing which is clearly wrong

Edit. To further prove your its all concentrated in the hands of a few!!! Nonsense. These 200,000 pots of gold well how many people die each year in the UK? About 500,000 in England and wales that year? So that's 200,000 pots of gold above £100k left by 500,000 dead. Or >40% are leaving large pots of gold.

I also didn't include the data for the more modest pots of gold some of which were £50k to £99.99k pots of gold etc.

And remember those gifts. I doubt I will leave much of an inheritance most of it will be gifted away to avoid inheritance taxes and to avoid doing something silly in my mentally less capable years. So there are lots of pots of gold not in the data

Windofchange

GreatApe wrote: »

...two days ago when you were suggesting inheritances and gifts play a negligible role in housing which is clearly wrong

I've got to go to work - will reply later, but I can only assume you are trolling? You've not responded directly to anything I have written, but continue to make up numbers to suit your argument. As a starter for 10 whilst I'm away paying the bills, two simply questions.

1) Can you point to the place where I have commented on inheritance and it's role in housing in this thread - i.e. the bit where I've made any comment on how negligible or otherwise it is?

2) Can you explain to me why home ownership amongst those aged under 44 is falling in the UK if two thirds of the population are home owners, and one can assume a large proportion of the other third are children? (Third time of asking).

I will attempt to break down your muddle later...

GreatApe

Windofchange wrote: »

I've got to go to work - will reply later, but I can only assume you are trolling? You've not responded directly to anything I have written, but continue to make up numbers to suit your argument. As a starter for 10 whilst I'm away paying the bills, two simply questions.

1) Can you point to the place where I have commented on inheritance and it's role in housing in this thread - i.e. the bit where I've made any comment on how negligible or otherwise it is?

2) Can you explain to me why home ownership amongst those aged under 44 is falling in the UK if two thirds of the population are home owners, and one can assume a large proportion of the other third are children? (Third time of asking).

I will attempt to break down your muddle later...

Let's start with why home ownership is falling.
There are multiple reasons but the two biggest are. 1 the large gross inwards annual migration, these people mostly have no option but to rent privately. The number of migrants compared to ten years ago is maybe 3-4 million higher so you would expect some 1.5 million growth in the rental stock to house them. 2 the removal of self cert mortgages and other mortgage regulations changes mean those 5-10% of households that earn their income from the black and grey economy can no longer buy. Again you would expect some 1.5+ million shift slowly from owners to renters as the regulations kick out the black market from owning. Combine the two and you get a shift of 3 million plus additional rental properties. So we were at 2.5 million rental properties and this will grow to 5.5 million plus and its pretty much what has happened.

The crash cheerleaders argue that its all down to price. If that were the case then the cheap areas where prices have not gone up for a decade would gave not seen a fall in ownership and a rise in renting but they have and its explained by the two factors I stated. More migrants who churn a lot and mortgage regulations kicking out some households who would have been buyers but can't with the new regs.


As for your views on the role of inherited and gifted money on the housing market do you now accept a significant portion of people 40-50% leave significant pots of gold? I would wager the majority of that maybe £200 billion annually floats into housing either directly with the people who inherit buying homes or BTLs or indirectly by people paying down debt or putting the money into a bank and the bank lends that in mist instances to a house buyer or a BTLer.

qwert_yuiop

economic wrote: »

i will get >500k in gift/inheritance. i know many more who will too. either you need to know people who are smarter or wealthier or lucky then maybe someday you will becime financially wealthy if not already?

After inheritance tax?

economic

GreatApe wrote: »

Let's start with why home ownership is falling.
There are multiple reasons but the two biggest are. 1 the large gross inwards annual migration, these people mostly have no option but to rent privately. The number of migrants compared to ten years ago is maybe 3-4 million higher so you would expect some 1.5 million growth in the rental stock to house them. 2 the removal of self cert mortgages and other mortgage regulations changes mean those 5-10% of households that earn their income from the black and grey economy can no longer buy. Again you would expect some 1.5+ million shift slowly from owners to renters as the regulations kick out the black market from owning. Combine the two and you get a shift of 3 million plus additional rental properties. So we were at 2.5 million rental properties and this will grow to 5.5 million plus and its pretty much what has happened.

The crash cheerleaders argue that its all down to price. If that were the case then the cheap areas where prices have not gone up for a decade would gave not seen a fall in ownership and a rise in renting but they have and its explained by the two factors I stated. More migrants who churn a lot and mortgage regulations kicking out some households who would have been buyers but can't with the new regs.


As for your views on the role of inherited and gifted money on the housing market do you now accept a significant portion of people 40-50% leave significant pots of gold? I would wager the majority of that maybe £200 billion annually floats into housing either directly with the people who inherit buying homes or BTLs or indirectly by people paying down debt or putting the money into a bank and the bank lends that in mist instances to a house buyer or a BTLer.

but how much of the pots of gold is in property already?