"Housing Market Slumps"

GreatApe

Windofchange wrote: »

Except that half of that wealth is owned by 10% of the population:

http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20160105160709/http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171776_428631.pdf

How many people do you know who will get left 500k or more in a will? Maybe you hang out in classier circles than myself, but I can think of a handful at best. Don't know if you've seen the news but the super rich are getting the heck out of property. What about the number of people who have already accessed their inheritance through BOMAD paying a deposit? We'll see how your theory holds out in the coming years I guess.

This is confirmation bias at play.

I have been both rich and poor and I know a huge range of people. What I can say with confidence is most people simply ignore or don't think about capital they concentrate on income.

This is of course extremely stupid in a Developed country with a massive stock of wealth. Also wealth is spread wide in this country. For instance there are about 19 million owner occupiers in this country. That is 19 million who have mostly paid off their housing costs not just for themselves but for generation to come.

A family only needs to buy two homes once and every generation thereafter has virtually free housing irrespective of what house prices do. Already the majority if the country is in this position.

GreatApe

BikingBud wrote: »

What is the basis for this wealth?

Someone's perception of worth?

Tangible assets?

Or the Emperor'?s shiny new clothes?

@carper - What crash are you talking of, there has only been constant feeding of the debt machine with various ill considered schemes to extend the subservient life of the debt slaves. After all the principle of selling to the highest bidder will not force prices excessively and inexorably upwards if we only lend on affordability criteria.

Its in bakes beans and bullets in the cellar, the only hard currency of the crash cheerleaders

Money assets nice things are just illusionary

Maybe you need to keep telling yourself this nonsense to keep sane

GreatApe

Windofchange wrote: »

How many people do you know who will get left 500k or more in a will?

More than I can count on my fingers and toes. I know one guy who will leave at least £5 million to his many grandkids many of which are quite dim by his own admission. These grand kids wages and incomes will/are irrelevant to how comfortable economically speaking this lives will be. While your grand kids might wonder why their teacher/nurse/firemen wage isn't enough to buy a terrace in an expensive areas his lower paid dimer grandkids will be buying those said homes.

More importantly and significantly is not how many you or I know but how many actually exist.

I would put the figure at at least 10% of the population. If nearly 10% of households can afford to send the kids through a private education costing £250k then you can be quite confident these people have significant assets.

Not to mention there are good data sets available from the ones detailing inheritance by numbers who receive and amounts given and breakdown of course of said inheritances if you are interested go look it up. If you can't be bothered I'll summarise by simply saying many more people than you would imagine get significant sums. And then there are gifts before inheritances which are at least as large as inheritances imo

ukcarper

BikingBud wrote: »

What is the basis for this wealth?

Someone's perception of worth?

Tangible assets?

Or the Emperor'?s shiny new clothes?

@carper - What crash are you talking of, there has only been constant feeding of the debt machine with various ill considered schemes to extend the subservient life of the debt slaves. After all the principle of selling to the highest bidder will not force prices excessively and inexorably upwards if we only lend on affordability criteria.

Depends where and what happens. You keep saying things like feeding the debt machine which is not true it's harder ti get a mortgage now than it was 20 years ago but if it was true why are large parts of the country not effected.

economic

GreatApe wrote: »

More than I can count on my fingers and toes. I know one guy who will leave at least £5 million to his many grandkids many of which are quite dim by his own admission. These grand kids wages and incomes will/are irrelevant to how comfortable economically speaking this lives will be. While your grand kids might wonder why their teacher/nurse/firemen wage isn't enough to buy a terrace in an expensive areas his lower paid dimer grandkids will be buying those said homes.

More importantly and significantly is not how many you or I know but how many actually exist.

I would put the figure at at least 10% of the population. If nearly 10% of households can afford to send the kids through a private education costing £250k then you can be quite confident these people have significant assets.

Not to mention there are good data sets available from the ones detailing inheritance by numbers who receive and amounts given and breakdown of course of said inheritances if you are interested go look it up. If you can't be bothered I'll summarise by simply saying many more people than you would imagine get significant sums. And then there are gifts before inheritances which are at least as large as inheritances imo

completely agree with Cells. me personally, i have parents with assets currently of over £1.5m and will inherit themselves their parents properties worth total £500k. they wont sell the properties and instead be retiring on the income from there properties, private pension and state pension. they have gifted me and my brother £100k each already.

i was shocked how much they have saved. both non university degree educated, relatively low skilled jobs and earning a combined income now of around £60k. both living in london like me.

BikingBud

ukcarper wrote: »

Depends where and what happens. You keep saying things like feeding the debt machine which is not true it's harder ti get a mortgage now than it was 20 years ago but if it was true why are large parts of the country not effected.

So 10-12 years ago when a whole load of people were getting mortgages based upon false data that enabled them to take out low rate, sometimes 0%, loans that wasn't easy money that enabled house prices to increase at unprecedented rates as outbidding was the norm?

Everything was normal?

I suppose normality does depend upon your perspective.

Please explain "large parts of the country" as I cannot comment when our perceptions about something are different.

noddynoo

Prices will fall this year I think which is good and a shame at the same time I work in property and currently nothing really selling unless well reduced and then it goes overnight. BTL here (SE) practically non existent now so getting a mortgage based on rental income no longer applies and prices are falling as a result. About 80% of what I am seeing is also no chain and its usually more like 40%. Local agents starting to lean on sellers to be realistic as we have had a couple of small agents close and a few others merge and take on lettings aswell to stay afloat. Budget will be interesting

kabayiri

Maybe the focus on investment value will shift?

Around here and in other parts of the peak desirable properties don't seem to be hanging around for long. It can be frustrating, but that's just the way it is.

It's not just here where judgements may shift. My relatives in Canada think certain places in Western Canada are overpriced, and have started to look further south in the USA.

westernpromise

Windofchange wrote: »

Except that half of that wealth is owned by 10% of the population

So what? 100% of 2016 Olympic gold medals are held by about 2 or 3 hundred people out of 7 billion. Is that not fair or something?

economic

Windofchange wrote: »

Except that half of that wealth is owned by 10% of the population:

http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20160105160709/http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171776_428631.pdf

How many people do you know who will get left 500k or more in a will? Maybe you hang out in classier circles than myself, but I can think of a handful at best. Don't know if you've seen the news but the super rich are getting the heck out of property. What about the number of people who have already accessed their inheritance through BOMAD paying a deposit? We'll see how your theory holds out in the coming years I guess.

i will get >500k in gift/inheritance. i know many more who will too. either you need to know people who are smarter or wealthier or lucky then maybe someday you will becime financially wealthy if not already?