UK Inflation Rate

gfplux

michaels wrote: »

If you are certain that triggering a50 will lead to a fall in the pound against the euro I suggest you remortgage your house and short sterling and retire in 6 weeks.

Like all markets the fx markets price in the knowns, it is unexpected events that lead to sharp price adjustments.

I am not certain of anything except death and taxes.
I am just guessing and speculating like everyone else.
With six weeks to go to "A50 day" anything can happen and traders need someone on the other side of the trade.
PS I am already retired so in the wealth retention mode (very hard) rather than wealth building mode. Risks are for the young perhaps.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Eurozone inflation rate last month was 2%.
January was 1.6%.
Here in January the UK inflation rate according to CPI was 1.8%.
Hardly a drastic difference since logically across the Eurozone, some countries will have seen greater than 1.6% inflation (and some less).
http://uk.reuters.com/article/us-eurozone-economy-inflation-idUKKBN16913W

michaels

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Eurozone inflation rate last month was 2%.
January was 1.6%.
Here in January the UK inflation rate according to CPI was 1.8%.
Hardly a drastic difference since logically across the Eurozone, some countries will have seen greater than 1.6% inflation (and some less).
http://uk.reuters.com/article/us-eurozone-economy-inflation-idUKKBN16913W

But I don't understand. How can Brexit and the resulting fall in sterling (which we are assured is the cause of inflation in the UK) be causing the Eurozone to have consistently higher inflation than us. I think my brain may be going to explode.....

wotsthat

michaels wrote: »

But I don't understand. How can Brexit and the resulting fall in sterling (which we are assured is the cause of inflation in the UK) be causing the Eurozone to have consistently higher inflation than us. I think my brain may be going to explode.....

I've shared some of my experience before. I don't think we've seen much of the devaluation hit inflation yet - it's been absorbed into margins short term but that seems to be changing.

I know I've been trying to get prices up since June 24th and it's been a nightmare. The first decent increase has only just hit a shelf (sales down but overall cash margin up) with more to follow. Complete new ranges with a new margin structure probably won't see a shelf for another few months yet.

Food and grocery seems to be experiencing some sharp inflation but as general inflation is quite low some thing else must be getting cheaper.

Thrugelmir

michaels wrote: »

But I don't understand. How can Brexit and the resulting fall in sterling (which we are assured is the cause of inflation in the UK) be causing the Eurozone to have consistently higher inflation than us. I think my brain may be going to explode.....

Why is Brexit impacting the Eurozone? The Euro has fallen against the Dollar in the last 12 months. Thereby impacting energy costs.

worldtraveller

Inflation, as measured by the Office for National Statistics' Consumer Prices Index, jumped to 2.3% in February - up from 1.8% in January.

The rate is the highest since September 2013 and above the 2% target the Bank of England is charged with keeping inflation at.

Rising fuel and food prices were the main factors pushing inflation higher.

BBC News

Main points

• The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH, not a National Statistic) 12-month inflation rate was 2.3% in February 2017, up from 1.9% in January.

• The rate in February 2017 was the highest since September 2013, having steadily increased since late 2015.

• Rising transport costs, particularly for fuel, were the main contributors to the increase in the rate.

• Prices for food increased by 0.3% between February 2016 and February 2017, following 31 consecutive months of prices falling on the year.

• The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) 12-month rate was also 2.3% in February 2017, compared with 1.8% in January.

• While the CPI and CPIH rates were the same in February 2017, the 2 series usually report different rates; over the last 2 years CPIH has been, on average, 0.3 percentage points above CPI, while over the last decade CPI has been, on average, 0.2 percentage points above CPIH.

ONS

mayonnaise

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Well with the average wage increase currently running at 2.5% according to the ONS that surely means that on average people are still ahead, yes?

https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours

Any chance of an update on this?

davomcdave

mayonnaise wrote: »

Any chance of an update on this?

RPI (cost of living) = 3.2%
Average nominal wage increase = 2.2%

The missing part is that more people are working so it may well be that the total amount paid out in wages has risen. Trouble is I'm not clever enough to work out if that is the case or not but we can say that the average individual is going backwards.

michaels

RPI is no longer a national statistic so it is unclear if it is the correct comparator for the wage increase figure. However I suspect later this year wage inflation will still be between 2 and 2.% and cpi will be 4.5%+ so the choice of measure will be moot.

Conspiracy theory says that the Govt are starting to push CPIH and this is a strong signal that they expect housing costs to stagnate or even fall....

davomcdave

michaels wrote: »

Conspiracy theory says that the Govt are starting to push CPIH and this is a strong signal that they expect housing costs to stagnate or even fall....

Do you think the Government would be good at predicting house prices? They weren't very good at making cars or turning around bankrupt Scottish banks after all and both those things sound easier than predicting the future.