Cambridge academics have blasted the Treasury over “Project Fear” Brexit warnings

Conrad

HiToAll wrote: »

I thought we didnt like 'experts'.
Brexit voter---boom, head explodes.

We are cautious with Economists and similar social 'scientists' when it comes to big picture predictions.
This is distinct from proper experts such as surgeons or biologists


I take you swallow their muck without question.


Here's a book for ya;


Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Fail and Why We Believe them Anyway Paperback – 5 May 2011

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Future-Babble-Expert-Predictions-Believe/dp/0753522365

mayonnaise

Cambridge Academics....sounds a bit elitist to me.

HiToAll

Conrad wrote: »

We are cautious with Economists and similar social 'scientists' when it comes to big picture predictions.
This is distinct from proper experts such as surgeons or biologists


I take you swallow their muck without question.


Here's a book for ya;


Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Fail and Why We Believe them Anyway Paperback – 5 May 2011

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Future-Babble-Expert-Predictions-Believe/dp/0753522365

Not in the slightest, but the journal paper linked in the original OP is hardly a vindication. A journal working paper who states that what they say is; 'construct scenarios, of which two are presented in the paper'.

Hardly much different to what is being suggested that GO did, suggest a best guess at what would/will happen.

But then, I wouldnt take what a surgeon or biologist said without question either.

wotsthat

Conrad wrote: »

Here's a book for ya;


Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Fail and Why We Believe them Anyway Paperback – 5 May 2011

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Future-Babble-Expert-Predictions-Believe/dp/0753522365

Prior to becoming an author Dan Gardner was a newspaper columnist.

How do you know he's right about others being wrong?

HiToAll

wotsthat wrote: »

Prior to becoming an author Dan Gardner was a newspaper columnist.

How do you know he's right about others being wrong?

Especially as he is a University social 'scientist' an' all.

wotsthat

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Lots of remainers informed us they were correct just 8 months ago - that's how we know!

Make it a resolution for 2017 to occasionally try and find the source material instead of relying on what a journalist, remainer or leaver told you.

Your world view will unlikely change but you might be surprised how, for example, a 58 page BoE inflation report can be condensed into a 100 word summary by a journalist telling you what you should make of it.

Aliana_Johnson

Waiting with baited breath but I think house prices will be secure perhaps even increase.

kabayiri

Personally, I struggle to translate local experience (what you might term micro) into the national experience (ie macro).

Take the economic migrant. I know a few. Generally, nice people and all. There's a Polish couple with a son with special needs. Collectively they don't earn enough to pay much tax, and there are additional education costs required to pay for his needs.

Maybe this is simple, but I can't see the net benefit in this case.

I'm sure a macro economist would see them as consuming and thus expanding the economy, and thus be some kind of net benefit.

So why can't I square the 2 views? Who is right? Does it matter if we don't raise enough tax if we become the biggest GDP economy in Europe?

Maybe economists are unable to put the case across to the average person?