The fed just raised interest rates by .25%

michaels

MacMickster wrote: »

A series of interest rate rises in the US will further strengthen the dollar against other currencies. Oil, priced in dollars becomes more expensive, just as the oil-producing nations agree to restrict output in order to raise prices.

If this causes increasing inflation in the UK then corresponding rises in UK interest rates become more likely in response.

After all we haven't seen inflation over 5% in the period where interest rates were held at 0.5%...oops

MacMickster wrote: »

The US hadn't just raised its interest rate when that report was prepared.

And no one anticipated the December US hike....

Graham_Devon

Crashy_Time wrote: »

The bbc never mentioned rates in the headlines I saw today, where SKY had the first section dedicated to a discussion on rates, concluding that low rates here "couldn`t go on". The bbc are a disgrace and just parrot the "Don`t panic, nothing to see here, look at Aleppo etc." line. If the US start seriously hiking we will be forced to follow.

To be fair to the BBC news website, they have, at least, on this occasion avoided blaming the 1.5% drop in the value of the pound against the dollar on brexit. 5live news couldn't quite help itself to mention "and brexit worries" when they reported it.

The BBC website has also made and error and left this quote in:

"In contrast, the eurozone is mired in problems including slow growth, low inflation and multiple political risks in Italy and France."

MacMickster

michaels wrote: »

After all we haven't seen inflation over 5% in the period where interest rates were held at 0.5%...oops

A different world in 2011. Whilst technically out of recession GDP was still below pre-recession levels, and personal debt was not again spiralling out of control.

Thrugelmir

michaels wrote: »

When choosing to invest in a different currency you look at both the foreign currency return (interest rate) and predicted exchange rate movement. Exchange rates will adjust so that expected future movements will counterbalance differences in interest rates.

For example the brexit vote resulted in reduced expectations for uk interest rates and thus a fall in gdp so that its expected path going forward was an appreciation to make up for the lower anticipated returns on gbp assets.

You make it sound so easy. Forecasting as all we all know. Requires a huge element of assumption. Let's wait and see how matters unfold. As only the start of a new chapter.

Crashy_Time

chucknorris wrote: »

Please forgive me for saying this Crashy, but you are the most financially ignorant person that I have ever come across, so your opinion is laughable. We have already sold one property (subject to contract). Prices could fall over 60% and we would still be selling at a huge profit.

So you are a bit like Fergus, "selling", "about to sell", "nearly sold", "slightly over-sold" :rotfl:
and you don`t mind taking a big hit to the price you get, even although if you had sold earlier (as I told you to) the full bubbletastic price for all your properties could have been yours. Looks like you got into the biggest Ponzi in history, at ground zero (due to an accident of birth) and fumbled the timing of your exit (due to greed, fear, incompetence?) and are now at the mercy of Trump, rates, EZ woes, Brexit, sentiment and all the rest :rotfl: Keep dispensing the "financial advice" on here though, there are, Oh, maybe six people who are all ears :T

Jack_Johnson_the_acorn

Crashy_Time wrote: »

So you are a bit like Fergus, "selling", "about to sell", "nearly sold", "slightly over-sold" :rotfl:
and you don`t mind taking a big hit to the price you get, even although if you had sold earlier (as I told you to) the full bubbletastic price for all your properties could have been yours. Looks like you got into the biggest Ponzi in history, at ground zero (due to an accident of birth) and fumbled the timing of your exit (due to greed, fear, incompetence?) and are now at the mercy of Trump, rates, EZ woes, Brexit, sentiment and all the rest :rotfl: Keep dispensing the "financial advice" on here though, there are, Oh, maybe six people who are all ears :T

I was 25 and managed to buy Crash, so what's your excuse?

Obviously everyone just got lucky, Of course you are the exception....

Jack_Johnson_the_acorn

Crashy_Time wrote: »

No, doesn`t sound like you are, but how many people on 50k do you think settled for a 100k mortgage? If everyone was like you there would have been no housing bubble.

Jack Johnson the acorn 08-08-2014, 9:13 PM
It's DEC 2011 I'm 25yrs old wanting a place of my own. I have saved £15k. Now I can invest in property and pay £100 less a month than it would cost to rent (mortgage term 25yrs).... or can I pay the extra £100pm in rent for possibly the next 50 yrs till I die.....

What decision do I make.....

Crashy Time 08-08-2014, 9:34 PM
"Buying" in 2011 was probably the worst mistake you are ever going to make.
You bought at peak and are now trying to justify that terrible mistake to yourself.

************************************

Change of tune Crashaholic, are you mellowing as you get closer to retirement?

chucknorris

Crashy_Time wrote: »

So you are a bit like Fergus, "selling", "about to sell", "nearly sold", "slightly over-sold" :rotfl:
and you don`t mind taking a big hit to the price you get, even although if you had sold earlier (as I told you to) the full bubbletastic price for all your properties could have been yours. Looks like you got into the biggest Ponzi in history, at ground zero (due to an accident of birth) and fumbled the timing of your exit (due to greed, fear, incompetence?) and are now at the mercy of Trump, rates, EZ woes, Brexit, sentiment and all the rest :rotfl: Keep dispensing the "financial advice" on here though, there are, Oh, maybe six people who are all ears :T

I've always been transparent, why can't you take it in? I am selling as and when my tenants give me notice. How is that too complicated for you to comprehend? Let's not forget that you were telling me to sell when our properties were worth more than £1m less than they are worth now, and that doesn't include any of the the £250k rental income since then!

Of course I want to maximise capital gain, but I also want to maximise income too, hence the staggered sale, you are far too focused on capital values, you are obsessed with house prices. The rental income exceeds that of any alternative investment. How many times do I have to say this 'we can only guess what capital values will do, but it is transparent what income is produced in the short term'. I have always been motivated by the income, not the potential capital gain, that is simply a very welcome bonus, our rental income is still over £100k, despite two properties now vacant due to being on the market. What is your rental income? Oops it is negative isn't it? You actually pay rent, whereas our rental income is probably about 2-3 times more than your salary.

But you were also in the 'biggest Ponzi in history' (as you put it) but somehow you still managed to find a way to mess it up :rotfl: didn't you? You managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

I don't give financial advice, funny you should say that when it is you trying to advise me, but you don't seem to realise that you are the last person that I would take advice from. Although I must admit that you giving financial advice does add excellent comedy value.

EDIT: I am no longer mainly a property investor, time has moved on (I haven't invested in property since 2008) and I am becoming more and more diversified, allowing for my recent (subject to contract sale) and a planned move of our home, investment property is currently only storing 32% of my wealth, and is less than what I will have in shares!:

40% Shares (includes SIPP & ISA)
32% Investment property
13% My home
10% DB pension
3% Cash
2% DC pension fund

chucknorris

Jack_Johnson_the_acorn wrote: »

I was 25 and managed to buy Crash, so what's your excuse?

It is worse than him simply not buying, he actually did once own a house, but he sold to rent in the mid to late 90's It is hilarious that he comes on here telling others that they are messing up their finances, you really couldn't make it up, that such a financial fool would do that. Anyone else would be cringing with embarrassment for being such a fool. But it gets even better than that, he first started telling me to sell our properties when they were worth more than £1m less than they are now.

Crashy_Time

Jack_Johnson_the_acorn wrote: »

I was 25 and managed to buy Crash, so what's your excuse?

Obviously everyone just got lucky, Of course you are the exception....

What do you want, a gold medal? You sound very brainwashed actually.......:(