How much can house prices keep rising ?

glasgowdan

movilogo wrote: »

The "local" people are already priced out of the housing market.

What happens now is explained below.


Oil Sheikhs from Middle East, Russian Oligarchs, Neo-riches from China/India are buying properties in London and hiking the price up in London in turn.
The local Londoner could not compete with them so they are buying in Luton thus pricing out locals from there and hiking the price up.
Those who are in Luton are now buying in Northampton and thus pricing locals out and hiking the price up there.
Those who are in Northampton are ....

Well you get the idea.

This only applies to specific locations, not the majority of the UK! But you know that.

Philuk

AdrianC wrote: »

What "wall"?

FWIW, they're on the southern edge of the second biggest city in the UK, in eminently reasonable commuter distance of London... As for "leaving family, friends and jobs" - they moved TO that area for work, both having grown up in different parts of the country, and bought the house once they'd settled in the area - having (fully commercially) rented that property for a year or two before buying it from their landlord for the full market value - around £100k.

But thanks for proving my point so eloquently.

It’s getting tiring to read the same rhetoric from mortgage free old boomers usually located well out of London. The average Londoner is not an “out–of–touch” spoiled youngster spending all their money on iphones and Ibiza holidays. Reality is that the average multiple on income from what I would call non-Brexit area (London, Oxbridge, SE) is between 12 and 16x, 4 times more than historical level. And if your “mate” on a single 26k is effectively located on south Birmingham, he can indeed commute to London for about 5k after tax money (+1k on TFL for tube connection to work). The market has totally dislocated from its base, transaction only happens between home owners swapping homes. You can reduce your phone and pub bill to 0, you will still be 3 life away from saving the 150k deposit you need for a 3-bed terraced house in Zone 6 at 500-600k.

AdrianC

Philuk wrote: »

It’s getting tiring to read the same rhetoric from mortgage free old boomers usually located well out of London. The average Londoner is not an “out–of–touch” spoiled youngster spending all their money on iphones and Ibiza holidays.

Why is everybody so fixated on London? Seven out of every eight people in the UK do not live in London.

And if your “mate” on a single 26k

I don't know what he earns. Like I said, he works in a factory.

is effectively located on south Birmingham

Yup.

he can indeed commute to London for about 5k after tax money

Yes, he could. But he doesn't.

You can reduce your phone and pub bill to 0, you will still be 3 life away from saving the 150k deposit you need for a 3-bed terraced house in Zone 6 at 500-600k.

There are three-bedroom properties for half that price inside the M25 and within easy distance of tube stations, even ignoring non-tube mainline, and there are two-bed properties for a third of that price.

martinsurrey

AdrianC wrote: »

There are three-bedroom properties for half that price inside the M25 and within easy distance of tube stations, even ignoring non-tube mainline, and there are two-bed properties for a third of that price.

exactly, Woking is an example of a place outside of the city with great links.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-45384297.html

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-45746097.html

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-45277965.html


2-3 beds for under £350k, less than a mile to the station (easy walk/bike) and a 28min direct train to Waterloo, faster than a lot of places in London!

somethingcorporate

martinsurrey wrote: »

2-3 beds for under £350k, less than a mile to the station (easy walk/bike) and a 28min direct train to Waterloo, faster than a lot of places in London!

This is a really interesting point. When we worked in the city we lived and commuted in from Southend. When we told colleagues they looked at us as if we said we commute from the moon!

We spent as much time commuting as they did except we did it on uncrowded, comfortable (ish) overground trains with a seat rather than crowded london buses/tubes/walking.

Oh yes, plus house prices were about 50% cheaper!

teddysmum

I've always wondered about the desire to live in London, which seems to rapidly be changing for the worst (crime etc), where everything costs much more than elsewhere and people are crammed in like sardines.


I wonder whether people saying they can't afford a house mean a furnished house. We were very lucky to get help from parents to buy our house, but we had very little furniture for years.


We started out with a carpet, coal fire ( no central heating as it was expensive) a cooker (my husband worked for a manufacturer), donated second hand dining table and chairs, cooking utensils , crockery , my recordplayer/radio and a bed. We got a rented tv paid for by in-laws, as a Christmas present, saved up to buy a three piece suite and were given an old fridge a year later.

AdrianC

somethingcorporate wrote: »

This is a really interesting point. When we worked in the city we lived and commuted in from Southend. When we told colleagues they looked at us as if we said we commute from the moon!

I've worked in London with people who commuted in daily from Lincolnshire and from Swindon.

ukcarper

Philuk wrote: »

It’s getting tiring to read the same rhetoric from mortgage free old boomers usually located well out of London. The average Londoner is not an “out–of–touch” spoiled youngster spending all their money on iphones and Ibiza holidays. Reality is that the average multiple on income from what I would call non-Brexit area (London, Oxbridge, SE) is between 12 and 16x, 4 times more than historical level. And if your “mate” on a single 26k is effectively located on south Birmingham, he can indeed commute to London for about 5k after tax money (+1k on TFL for tube connection to work). The market has totally dislocated from its base, transaction only happens between home owners swapping homes. You can reduce your phone and pub bill to 0, you will still be 3 life away from saving the 150k deposit you need for a 3-bed terraced house in Zone 6 at 500-600k.

4x how historic is that I bought my first house in the early 70s I worked in South West London and was earning more than average wage. I could not afford to buy in London and had to move to Hampshire borders to buy . Although that house Is now more expensive in relation to earnings but only by about 50 to 60% and you can borrow more now.

steampowered

marksoton wrote: »

I don't know if prices will continue to increase and it's futile to speculate.

What i do know is when you strip it down to basic economic principles, i.e supply and demand there isn't going to be a massive lowering of prices.

The simple fact is people have to have somewhere to live and population growth is far outstripping house building.

The key to your phrase is 'supply and demand'.

While I accept that supply is constrained, people cannot demand what they cannot pay for, surely?

teddysmum

steampowered wrote: »

The key to your phrase is 'supply and demand'.

While I accept that supply is constrained, people cannot demand what they cannot pay for, surely?

But they can demand their 'human rights' to have it paid for by the rest of us. (ie via benefits)