Why the BoE got Brexit forecasts wrong

TrickyTree83

Sapphire wrote: »

I'm far more worried about us staying in the EU for much longer, given the economic state it is in.

Additionally, it needs to fundamentally change and stop issuing threats, which are certainly not a good way of demonstrating democracy, or that it agrees with countries keeping their national sovereignty – something that will ultimately be insisted on by the citizens of all European countries. One size cannot be made to fit all, either economically or politically. All the EU bureaucrats appear to be doing is proving every more strongly that the EU is not democratic, but moving towards increasing authoritarianism/totalitarianism.

I'd be far more worried about a brand of politics that gives a platform to movements like this:

http://news.sky.com/story/vegan-campaigners-demand-animal-fat-removed-from-new-1635-notes-10676891

Imagine the amount of meat/animal products smeared all over dirty coins and notes, handles, doors, library books, public toilets, your bus, your taxi, the letters you receive through the post, possibly anything you pick up in a shop when browsing, basically anything the public use.

Why no complaint about that extremely long (and not exhaustive) list of vegan-offensive circumstances?

Typical leftist activism. Identify a domain of human endeavour, note there is a distribution of success, some people are doing comparatively better and some are doing comparatively worse. Define those doing worse as victims, define those doing better as perpetrators, identify with the victims, have yourself a set of enemies handy to vent your resentment on, feel good about it even though it didn't require any work on your part and then endlessly repeat.

Conrad

Masomnia wrote: »

In defence of the forecasters though, I do think it's impossible to predict what will happen when you're in completely uncharted territory and it's all just giving a best guess;

Trouble is, arrogant, pious wide eyed liberals all over the media keep referring to these crystal ball guesses as 'evidence'. One woman from The Observer when on Sky's 'Paper Review' endlessly insists this is evidence and 100% factual, and her eyes widen to an enormous size if anyone questions this orthodoxy. I think this is why the public are having such trouble respecting liberals

CLAPTON

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

I'd be far more worried about a brand of politics that gives a platform to movements like this:

http://news.sky.com/story/vegan-campaigners-demand-animal-fat-removed-from-new-1635-notes-10676891

Imagine the amount of meat/animal products smeared all over dirty coins and notes, handles, doors, library books, public toilets, your bus, your taxi, the letters you receive through the post, possibly anything you pick up in a shop when browsing, basically anything the public use.

Why no complaint about that extremely long (and not exhaustive) list of vegan-offensive circumstances?

Typical leftist activism. Identify a domain of human endeavour, note there is a distribution of success, some people are doing comparatively better and some are doing comparatively worse. Define those doing worse as victims, define those doing better as perpetrators, identify with the victims, have yourself a set of enemies handy to vent your resentment on, feel good about it even though it didn't require any work on your part and then endlessly repeat.

reminds me of the situation about dihydrogen monoxide: it is known that it has caused deaths worldwide, can cause serious burns and causes corrosion and yet the EU has refused to act: another reason for brexit

Sapphire

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

I'd be far more worried about a brand of politics that gives a platform to movements like this:

http://news.sky.com/story/vegan-campaigners-demand-animal-fat-removed-from-new-1635-notes-10676891

Imagine the amount of meat/animal products smeared all over dirty coins and notes, handles, doors, library books, public toilets, your bus, your taxi, the letters you receive through the post, possibly anything you pick up in a shop when browsing, basically anything the public use.

Why no complaint about that extremely long (and not exhaustive) list of vegan-offensive circumstances?

Typical leftist activism.

I'm not sure what your reply has to do with my post – and I hope you are not implying I'm a 'leftie activist'. :eek:

TrickyTree83

Sapphire wrote: »

I'm not sure what your reply has to do with my post – and I hope you are not implying I'm a 'leftie activist'. :eek:

It was in relation to what you should be fearful of. In no way was I saying you were a leftie activist, so apologies if it came across that way.

Basically, I fear the EU far less than this social justice ideology.

For example, if the social justice movement has infested the EU (which it looks like it has) and they then attempt to pass down laws onto your country and you don't agree with it, see Hungary (and others). You can to some extent just tell them where to go.

But if the social justice movement infests your political institutions (i.e. Germany, Sweden), you're a gonner as a free and liberal society unless you enact radical change. You will be told what to think and how to speak. That women who are being raped are given a code of conduct, rather than making the rapists conform to your societal values and laws. That will be the true authoritarianism that you ought to be fearful of.

steampowered

Well, the value of the pound dropped about 15% on the referendum result.

So the global financial investment community obviously thinks the British economy will be a lot less as a result of Brexit.

No doubt if people had said that before the referendum you'd have accused them of being doom mongers too.

steampowered

CLAPTON wrote: »

reminds me of the situation about dihydrogen monoxide: it is known that it has caused deaths worldwide, can cause serious burns and causes corrosion and yet the EU has refused to act: another reason for brexit

This is a completely ridiculous argument, given that membership of the EU does not restrict the UK from imposing its own ban.

No doubt if the EU did impose a ban on this substance, you'd be citing it as an example of EU over-regulation.

CLAPTON

steampowered wrote: »

Well, the value of the pound dropped about 15% on the referendum result.

So the global financial investment community obviously thinks the British economy will be a lot less as a result of Brexit.

No doubt if people had said that before the referendum you'd have accused them of being doom mongers too.

the issue is whether the forecasts are accurate or not
and whether the forecasts have a consistant bias

so over the last few years the IMF,OECD etc have consistantly underestimated the UK growth
and the post referendum forecasts have been consistantly over pessimistic (i.e recession)

read Kristen Forbes' paper and come to your own conclusion
http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/speeches/2016/speech942.pdf

angrypirate

steampowered wrote: »

Well, the value of the pound dropped about 15% on the referendum result.

So the global financial investment community obviously thinks the British economy will be a lot less as a result of Brexit.

No doubt if people had said that before the referendum you'd have accused them of being doom mongers too.

Prior to the referendum, sterling was judged to be around 15% overvalued and Bremainers were predicting a 25% fall.

cogito

I just find in incredible that the BoE would use newspaper articles serving a particular agenda as any kind of basis for making economic forecasts. Suppose they had used articles from pro-Brexit newspapers instead? The BoE forecasts would probably have been rather more accurate.