If Brexit needs house of commons and Lords backing ...

padington

I can't see it happening can you ? Half the tories are pro EU, most labour MP's are pro EU and the scots are wildly pro EU and UKIP dead in the water.

Even the prime minister is secret remainer and now the country has felt the early cost of Brexit , they are more pro remain than ever, surely ?

I think it's game over for brexit and suddenly UK property is looking like it's going for a song in dollars ...

Masomnia

The high court decision appears to be predicated on the idea that invoking A50 is irreversible, which the Supreme Court may well disagree with. I think the Appeal could well go in the government's favour on this basis.

If it does end up with a Commons vote, then given ta the vast majority of Tory constituencies voted leave and similar for Labour I would be very surprised if they went against the result. The Commons blocking Brexit would result in a general election, with those who went against the will of their constituents being punished for it. Can you imagine places like Oldham re-electing Labour after they !!!!ed them over when its already close between them and UKIP?

Even if this does go to the Commons they'll back Brexit.

theEnd

Anyone calculated how it would go if each MP voted based on the majority in their constituency?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Masomnia wrote: »

Even if this does go to the Commons they'll back Brexit.

This will now end up in parliament - high court was definitive and appeal unlikely to succeed

Parliament won't block brexit - but they'll scrutinise, slow down, and supervise Brexit and put clear limits in place to the range of outcomes parliament will accept - so a chaotic, destructive, hard brexit now looks much less likely.

LHW99

so a chaotic, destructive, hard brexit now looks much less likely

so just so a chaotic, destructive, soft brexit that continues the uncertainty for a considerably longer time then.

steampowered

Masomnia wrote: »

The high court decision appears to be predicated on the idea that invoking A50 is irreversible, which the Supreme Court may well disagree with. I think the Appeal could well go in the government's favour on this basis.

No it isn't, the decision has absolutely nothing to do with whether invoking A50 is reversible.

Read the actual judgment or at least the 2-page summary available here: https://www.judiciary.gov.uk/judgments/r-miller-v-secretary-of-state-for-exiting-the-european-union/.

If it does end up with a Commons vote, then given ta the vast majority of Tory constituencies voted leave and similar for Labour I would be very surprised if they went against the result. The Commons blocking Brexit would result in a general election, with those who went against the will of their constituents being punished for it. Can you imagine places like Oldham re-electing Labour after they !!!!ed them over when its already close between them and UKIP?

Even if this does go to the Commons they'll back Brexit.

I think the point is more that Brexit is not simply a binary 'yes' or 'no' option. There are a million shades of grey as to what level of cooperation will be put in place following Brexit. I doubt parliament will block the process but I imagine it will use its leverage to scrutinise the government on this.

steampowered

theEnd wrote: »

Anyone calculated how it would go if each MP voted based on the majority in their constituency?

Given that the vote was 52% Brexit / 48% remain, and given that a lot of people would probably end up changing their votes given the level of the lie told about £350 million more for the NHS and given what has happened to the pound since then, I wouldn't be surprised if the country now has a slim majority in the remain camp.

Marktheshark

steampowered wrote: »

I think the point is more that Brexit is not simply a binary 'yes' or 'no' option.

There was no option for Brexit on the referendum, that was a very simple yes or no.
And it was Yes for leave, not brexit.

Masomnia

steampowered wrote: »

No it isn't, the decision has absolutely nothing to do with whether invoking A50 is reversible.

Read the actual judgment or at least the 2-page summary available here: https://www.judiciary.gov.uk/judgments/r-miller-v-secretary-of-state-for-exiting-the-european-union/.


I think the point is more that Brexit is not simply a binary 'yes' or 'no' option. There are a million shades of grey as to what level of cooperation will be put in place following Brexit. I doubt parliament will block the process but I imagine it will use its leverage to scrutinise the government on this.

See points 5 and especially 6 in the 2 page summary: 'The government accepts that a notice under Article 50 cannot be withdrawn once it has been given'

ie. the decision is based on the idea that Article 50 is not reversible. Hence point 6

'Therefore, once notice is given under Article 50, some rights under EU law... would inevitably be lost'.

Whether rights would 'inevitably' be lost once Article 50 is served is central to this case.

Masomnia

steampowered wrote: »

Given that the vote was 52% Brexit / 48% remain, and given that a lot of people would probably end up changing their votes given the level of the lie told about £350 million more for the NHS and given what has happened to the pound since then, I wouldn't be surprised if the country now has a slim majority in the remain camp.

I think the opposite myself.

• The 'Instant DIY recession' did not happen, economy growing healthily despite the vote.
• We were told there would have to be an emergency budget, which did not happen.
• Scaremongering around Nissan proved to be false.

The remain campaign was built on a load of guff that proved to be false, and I sincerely doubt that 'pledges' around money for the NHS influenced the vote to any great extent.

GreatApe

IMO it would be very prudent to hold another vote.
If it is out again there should be a speedy exit within 6-12 months if its stay then it should be stay.
The electorate are now far more informed and have a taste of what has happened so their second decision would hold more weight.